## load libraries

library(vars)
library(quantmod)

### load data files ----

## tier 1 capital
cap <- readRDS("../mdi_tier_1_cap.rds")

## domestic loan balance
loans <- readRDS("../mdi_loans_cap.rds")

## commercial and industrial loans
Cloans <- readRDS("../mdi_Cloans_cap.rds")
Cloans[Cloans == 0] <- NA

## exogenous variables
exogs <- readRDS("../exog.rds")
## remove Q3 2017 because not yet in FDIC data
exogs <- exogs[-dim(exogs)[1], ]

### convert tier 1 capital and loans from levels into changes -----
## this data set (laons, cap) starts in Q1 2001

loans_r <- apply(loans, 2, Delt)
loans_r <- as.xts(loans_r, order.by = index(exogs["2001/"]))

Cloans_r <- apply(Cloans, 2, Delt)
Cloans_r <- as.xts(Cloans_r, order.by = index(exogs["2001/"]))

cap_r <- apply(cap, 2, Delt)
cap_r <- as.xts(cap_r, order.by = index(exogs["2001/"]))

#### VAR

## full sample

for (i in gsub("ID_", "", names(cap))){

    tmp <- merge.xts(loans_r[,(gsub("ID_", "", names(loans_r)) == i)], cap_r[,(gsub("ID_", "", names(cap_r)) == i)], exogs)
    tmp <- tmp[!rowSums(!is.finite(tmp)), ]
    tmp <- tmp[complete.cases(tmp), ]
    names(tmp)[1] <- "loans"
    names(tmp)[2] <- "capital"

    tmp_endo <- tmp[, c(1,2)]
    tmp_exog <- tmp[, c(-1,-2)]
    
    tmp_var_sel <- tryCatch(VARselect(tmp_endo, exogen = tmp_exog), error = function(e){print("error")})
    tmp_var <- tryCatch(VAR(tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog), error = function(e){print("error")})
    
    tryCatch(print(summary(tmp_var)), error = function(e){print("error")})

    tryCatch(plot(tryCatch(irf(tmp_var, impulse = 'capital', response = 'loans', n.ahead = 10,
                 ortho = TRUE, cumulative = FALSE, boot = TRUE, ci = 0.95,
                 runs = 100, seed = NULL), error = function(e){print("error")})), error = function(e){print("error")})
    
    }

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 40 
Log Likelihood: 136.258 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7385 0.7385 0.7238 0.7238 0.6255 0.5251 0.5251 0.017
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.063588   0.182972  -0.348   0.7314  
capital.l1     0.240158   0.174453   1.377   0.1819  
loans.l2       0.149773   0.102200   1.465   0.1563  
capital.l2    -0.040710   0.164684  -0.247   0.8069  
loans.l3       0.169891   0.094435   1.799   0.0852 .
capital.l3    -0.065143   0.167178  -0.390   0.7004  
loans.l4       0.002860   0.002253   1.270   0.2169  
capital.l4    -0.018516   0.135637  -0.137   0.8926  
const          0.073814   0.041426   1.782   0.0880 .
ten_two       -0.027385   0.018150  -1.509   0.1450  
ten_two_unexp  0.057666   0.048992   1.177   0.2512  
ten            0.048819   0.212836   0.229   0.8206  
ten_unexp     -0.114132   0.233023  -0.490   0.6289  
cpi           -2.918349   2.890202  -1.010   0.3231  
cpi_unexp      2.321657   2.404506   0.966   0.3443  
jobs          -1.497612   3.805509  -0.394   0.6975  
jobs_unexp    -0.360086   8.638066  -0.042   0.9671  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04949 on 23 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7629, Adjusted R-squared: 0.598 
F-statistic: 4.625 on 16 and 23 DF,  p-value: 0.0004707 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.0519912  0.2527496  -0.206    0.839
capital.l1    -0.0406962  0.2409816  -0.169    0.867
loans.l2      -0.0675380  0.1411749  -0.478    0.637
capital.l2    -0.1455946  0.2274871  -0.640    0.528
loans.l3       0.0162058  0.1304482   0.124    0.902
capital.l3     0.0177942  0.2309315   0.077    0.939
loans.l4       0.0005632  0.0031116   0.181    0.858
capital.l4    -0.2964196  0.1873631  -1.582    0.127
const         -0.0077668  0.0572239  -0.136    0.893
ten_two        0.0203229  0.0250711   0.811    0.426
ten_two_unexp  0.0111111  0.0676760   0.164    0.871
ten           -0.0409693  0.2940023  -0.139    0.890
ten_unexp     -0.0524393  0.3218870  -0.163    0.872
cpi           -2.9395804  3.9923939  -0.736    0.469
cpi_unexp      2.7744465  3.3214745   0.835    0.412
jobs           5.5600422  5.2567563   1.058    0.301
jobs_unexp     4.1567672 11.9322303   0.348    0.731


Residual standard error: 0.06837 on 23 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3583, Adjusted R-squared: -0.08816 
F-statistic: 0.8025 on 16 and 23 DF,  p-value: 0.6702 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0024495 0.0002199
capital 0.0002199 0.0046739

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.06499
capital 0.06499 1.00000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 81.19 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1209 0.1209
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.11802    0.37557  -0.314    0.761
capital.l1      0.62948    0.59209   1.063    0.315
const          -0.08276    0.18335  -0.451    0.662
ten_two         0.04215    0.05330   0.791    0.449
ten_two_unexp  -0.02068    0.21134  -0.098    0.924
ten            -0.64138    0.44767  -1.433    0.186
ten_unexp       0.48848    0.44947   1.087    0.305
cpi             8.03090   10.33858   0.777    0.457
cpi_unexp      -3.30584   10.36377  -0.319    0.757
jobs           -4.91707   43.74363  -0.112    0.913
jobs_unexp    -10.44708   33.61281  -0.311    0.763


Residual standard error: 0.07525 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3039, Adjusted R-squared: -0.4695 
F-statistic: 0.393 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.9191 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -2.323e-02  1.505e-01  -0.154    0.881
capital.l1     4.344e-05  2.373e-01   0.000    1.000
const         -6.512e-02  7.347e-02  -0.886    0.398
ten_two       -3.413e-02  2.136e-02  -1.598    0.145
ten_two_unexp  5.756e-02  8.468e-02   0.680    0.514
ten           -1.371e-01  1.794e-01  -0.764    0.464
ten_unexp      3.664e-02  1.801e-01   0.203    0.843
cpi            5.576e+00  4.143e+00   1.346    0.211
cpi_unexp     -3.949e+00  4.153e+00  -0.951    0.366
jobs           2.467e+01  1.753e+01   1.407    0.193
jobs_unexp    -1.117e+00  1.347e+01  -0.083    0.936


Residual standard error: 0.03015 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3739, Adjusted R-squared: -0.3218 
F-statistic: 0.5374 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.8264 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0056625 0.0003258
capital 0.0003258 0.0009092

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1436
capital 0.1436  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 221.989 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9312 0.9312 0.8735 0.8735 0.855 0.8286 0.8286 0.8076 0.8076 0.6932 0.6932 0.004976
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.2006879  0.1581706   1.269 0.212227    
capital.l1     0.1725549  0.1348906   1.279 0.208576    
loans.l2      -0.0558129  0.1338993  -0.417 0.679150    
capital.l2     0.1324262  0.1162869   1.139 0.261920    
loans.l3       0.1031370  0.1321600   0.780 0.439993    
capital.l3     0.1627404  0.1183655   1.375 0.177217    
loans.l4      -0.0825077  0.1283552  -0.643 0.524209    
capital.l4    -0.0042033  0.1175511  -0.036 0.971663    
loans.l5       0.1593468  0.1243146   1.282 0.207678    
capital.l5     0.4408748  0.1199915   3.674 0.000733 ***
loans.l6      -0.3490884  0.1420864  -2.457 0.018694 *  
capital.l6     0.0610293  0.1229219   0.496 0.622410    
const         -0.0008226  0.0211169  -0.039 0.969132    
ten_two       -0.0113649  0.0080332  -1.415 0.165287    
ten_two_unexp -0.0311228  0.0314831  -0.989 0.329134    
ten            0.1804761  0.1533787   1.177 0.246646    
ten_unexp     -0.1413010  0.1734133  -0.815 0.420252    
cpi            1.8129332  2.0721482   0.875 0.387122    
cpi_unexp     -1.8385429  1.6746405  -1.098 0.279168    
jobs           0.5295625  2.2237246   0.238 0.813050    
jobs_unexp    -1.7680698  4.6462496  -0.381 0.705666    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04311 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4672, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1868 
F-statistic: 1.666 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.08635 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.132524   0.180545   0.734   0.4674  
capital.l1    -0.040907   0.153972  -0.266   0.7919  
loans.l2      -0.304894   0.152840  -1.995   0.0533 .
capital.l2    -0.251990   0.132736  -1.898   0.0653 .
loans.l3       0.262664   0.150855   1.741   0.0897 .
capital.l3    -0.153324   0.135109  -1.135   0.2636  
loans.l4       0.060937   0.146512   0.416   0.6798  
capital.l4     0.018027   0.134179   0.134   0.8938  
loans.l5       0.219122   0.141900   1.544   0.1308  
capital.l5    -0.196046   0.136965  -1.431   0.1605  
loans.l6       0.379129   0.162185   2.338   0.0248 *
capital.l6    -0.064546   0.140310  -0.460   0.6481  
const          0.015689   0.024104   0.651   0.5190  
ten_two        0.006288   0.009170   0.686   0.4970  
ten_two_unexp  0.048074   0.035937   1.338   0.1889  
ten            0.100257   0.175075   0.573   0.5703  
ten_unexp     -0.202517   0.197944  -1.023   0.3127  
cpi           -3.052142   2.365265  -1.290   0.2047  
cpi_unexp      0.807675   1.911528   0.423   0.6750  
jobs          -0.214444   2.538283  -0.084   0.9331  
jobs_unexp    -7.821926   5.303488  -1.475   0.1485  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04921 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.438,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.1421 
F-statistic: 1.481 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.1461 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0018588 -0.0002108
capital -0.0002108  0.0024219

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.09936
capital -0.09936  1.00000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 268.575 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.3593 0.1443
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.1874914  0.1377984   1.361   0.1794  
capital.l1     0.2630013  0.1364745   1.927   0.0593 .
const          0.0180399  0.0171161   1.054   0.2967  
ten_two        0.0005794  0.0062926   0.092   0.9270  
ten_two_unexp -0.0259456  0.0218475  -1.188   0.2403  
ten           -0.0309251  0.0943767  -0.328   0.7444  
ten_unexp      0.0826116  0.1028460   0.803   0.4254  
cpi            0.7072083  1.2340186   0.573   0.5690  
cpi_unexp     -1.6702737  1.1167098  -1.496   0.1407  
jobs          -0.3579249  1.2929918  -0.277   0.7830  
jobs_unexp     2.6570938  2.7113350   0.980   0.3315  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0324 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2419, Adjusted R-squared: 0.09884 
F-statistic: 1.691 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.1073 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.216678   0.140029   1.547  0.12772   
capital.l1     0.027506   0.138684   0.198  0.84354   
const          0.051602   0.017393   2.967  0.00451 **
ten_two       -0.015683   0.006394  -2.453  0.01751 * 
ten_two_unexp -0.011053   0.022201  -0.498  0.62063   
ten            0.071849   0.095905   0.749  0.45707   
ten_unexp     -0.047324   0.104511  -0.453  0.65253   
cpi           -0.065500   1.253998  -0.052  0.95854   
cpi_unexp     -0.033927   1.134790  -0.030  0.97626   
jobs           0.105788   1.313926   0.081  0.93613   
jobs_unexp     2.327390   2.755233   0.845  0.40207   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03292 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3028, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1712 
F-statistic: 2.301 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.02497 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.050e-03 -7.703e-05
capital -7.703e-05  1.084e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.07221
capital -0.07221  1.00000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 327.05 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.0747 0.0747
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.036301   0.129770   0.280   0.7808  
capital.l1    -0.054369   0.177709  -0.306   0.7608  
const          0.013767   0.010159   1.355   0.1811  
ten_two       -0.004518   0.004220  -1.070   0.2893  
ten_two_unexp  0.010352   0.015330   0.675   0.5025  
ten            0.026063   0.070289   0.371   0.7123  
ten_unexp     -0.066447   0.075151  -0.884   0.3806  
cpi            0.944631   0.966382   0.977   0.3328  
cpi_unexp     -1.872489   0.846005  -2.213   0.0312 *
jobs          -0.379205   0.963285  -0.394   0.6954  
jobs_unexp     1.568801   1.982844   0.791   0.4324  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0237 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1703, Adjusted R-squared: 0.01369 
F-statistic: 1.087 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3884 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.111837   0.098747   1.133  0.26250   
capital.l1    -0.013794   0.135225  -0.102  0.91914   
const          0.019796   0.007730   2.561  0.01332 * 
ten_two       -0.008845   0.003211  -2.754  0.00804 **
ten_two_unexp  0.004553   0.011665   0.390  0.69785   
ten           -0.119029   0.053485  -2.225  0.03033 * 
ten_unexp      0.114031   0.057185   1.994  0.05130 . 
cpi            1.307347   0.735355   1.778  0.08117 . 
cpi_unexp     -0.476233   0.643756  -0.740  0.46270   
jobs          -0.708848   0.732999  -0.967  0.33791   
jobs_unexp     0.543804   1.508817   0.360  0.71997   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01803 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2981, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1657 
F-statistic: 2.251 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0282 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    5.617e-04 -2.523e-05
capital -2.523e-05  3.253e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.05902
capital -0.05902  1.00000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 62 
Log Likelihood: 205.194 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8893 0.6606 0.6606 0.4997 0.4997 0.3103
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.197805   0.136883   1.445   0.1551   
capital.l1     0.074639   0.096050   0.777   0.4410   
loans.l2       0.192668   0.137095   1.405   0.1665   
capital.l2    -0.036115   0.091013  -0.397   0.6933   
loans.l3       0.380524   0.137124   2.775   0.0079 **
capital.l3    -0.057556   0.095889  -0.600   0.5512   
const          0.033548   0.021172   1.585   0.1198   
ten_two       -0.013844   0.008403  -1.647   0.1061   
ten_two_unexp -0.002652   0.028691  -0.092   0.9268   
ten            0.076650   0.136309   0.562   0.5766   
ten_unexp     -0.061185   0.146503  -0.418   0.6781   
cpi           -0.550743   1.694814  -0.325   0.7467   
cpi_unexp      0.375750   1.557603   0.241   0.8104   
jobs           0.115282   2.002242   0.058   0.9543   
jobs_unexp     2.975684   3.882777   0.766   0.4473   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04398 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5931, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4719 
F-statistic: 4.893 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 1.839e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.217697   0.201058   1.083   0.2844  
capital.l1     0.062157   0.141080   0.441   0.6615  
loans.l2      -0.007952   0.201368  -0.039   0.9687  
capital.l2    -0.126744   0.133682  -0.948   0.3479  
loans.l3      -0.029529   0.201411  -0.147   0.8841  
capital.l3    -0.074546   0.140844  -0.529   0.5991  
const          0.002249   0.031099   0.072   0.9426  
ten_two        0.005416   0.012342   0.439   0.6628  
ten_two_unexp -0.019720   0.042142  -0.468   0.6420  
ten            0.405346   0.200214   2.025   0.0486 *
ten_unexp     -0.441177   0.215187  -2.050   0.0459 *
cpi            1.410279   2.489381   0.567   0.5737  
cpi_unexp      0.828501   2.287843   0.362   0.7189  
jobs           0.752392   2.940939   0.256   0.7992  
jobs_unexp    -9.570880   5.703111  -1.678   0.0999 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0646 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2055, Adjusted R-squared: -0.03118 
F-statistic: 0.8683 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.5959 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0019346 0.0003366
capital 0.0003366 0.0041737

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1185
capital 0.1185  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 241.939 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
 1.03 1.011 1.011 0.9958 0.9958 0.9763 0.9763 0.9533 0.9533 0.9404 0.9404 0.8859 0.8859 0.8796 0.8796 0.8679 0.8679 0.8118 0.8118 0.3416
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.277398   0.187441   1.480   0.1509  
capital.l1     0.134912   0.140532   0.960   0.3459  
loans.l2       0.506036   0.232253   2.179   0.0386 *
capital.l2    -0.219851   0.127839  -1.720   0.0974 .
loans.l3       0.141267   0.206447   0.684   0.4999  
capital.l3    -0.287716   0.138130  -2.083   0.0472 *
loans.l4       0.336209   0.205240   1.638   0.1134  
capital.l4    -0.143346   0.109081  -1.314   0.2003  
loans.l5      -0.401631   0.207039  -1.940   0.0633 .
capital.l5     0.065057   0.111701   0.582   0.5653  
loans.l6       0.156364   0.224906   0.695   0.4931  
capital.l6     0.150872   0.130264   1.158   0.2573  
loans.l7       0.215445   0.211818   1.017   0.3185  
capital.l7    -0.110801   0.139637  -0.793   0.4347  
loans.l8      -0.377269   0.207629  -1.817   0.0808 .
capital.l8     0.230378   0.147852   1.558   0.1313  
loans.l9       0.222419   0.229217   0.970   0.3408  
capital.l9     0.185188   0.148950   1.243   0.2249  
loans.l10      0.408796   0.258813   1.580   0.1263  
capital.l10   -0.184261   0.140093  -1.315   0.1999  
const          0.010331   0.015154   0.682   0.5014  
ten_two       -0.005734   0.005968  -0.961   0.3455  
ten_two_unexp -0.025929   0.029107  -0.891   0.3812  
ten            0.201508   0.128826   1.564   0.1299  
ten_unexp     -0.110368   0.126179  -0.875   0.3897  
cpi           -1.079843   2.146345  -0.503   0.6191  
cpi_unexp     -1.389463   1.544293  -0.900   0.3765  
jobs           1.595445   2.799738   0.570   0.5737  
jobs_unexp    -0.366249   3.632200  -0.101   0.9205  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03164 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5843, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1367 
F-statistic: 1.305 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.2487 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.299278   0.286081   1.046   0.3051  
capital.l1    -0.338000   0.214487  -1.576   0.1271  
loans.l2       0.814124   0.354476   2.297   0.0299 *
capital.l2     0.029201   0.195114   0.150   0.8822  
loans.l3      -0.269861   0.315089  -0.856   0.3996  
capital.l3    -0.267200   0.210821  -1.267   0.2162  
loans.l4       0.147598   0.313248   0.471   0.6414  
capital.l4     0.097998   0.166484   0.589   0.5612  
loans.l5       0.006652   0.315993   0.021   0.9834  
capital.l5     0.177183   0.170483   1.039   0.3082  
loans.l6      -0.131206   0.343263  -0.382   0.7054  
capital.l6     0.196180   0.198816   0.987   0.3329  
loans.l7       0.866264   0.323287   2.680   0.0126 *
capital.l7    -0.159119   0.213121  -0.747   0.4620  
loans.l8       0.221546   0.316894   0.699   0.4907  
capital.l8     0.311552   0.225659   1.381   0.1791  
loans.l9       0.267281   0.349841   0.764   0.4517  
capital.l9    -0.081394   0.227335  -0.358   0.7232  
loans.l10      0.676510   0.395013   1.713   0.0987 .
capital.l10   -0.506227   0.213817  -2.368   0.0256 *
const          0.001563   0.023129   0.068   0.9466  
ten_two       -0.004842   0.009109  -0.532   0.5996  
ten_two_unexp -0.072991   0.044424  -1.643   0.1124  
ten            0.221097   0.196620   1.124   0.2711  
ten_unexp     -0.065488   0.192581  -0.340   0.7365  
cpi           -2.237032   3.275852  -0.683   0.5007  
cpi_unexp      1.427884   2.356972   0.606   0.5499  
jobs           4.304338   4.273092   1.007   0.3231  
jobs_unexp    -5.133487   5.543634  -0.926   0.3630  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04829 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5531, Adjusted R-squared: 0.07183 
F-statistic: 1.149 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.3622 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0010010 0.0001297
capital 0.0001297 0.0023318

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.08486
capital 0.08486 1.00000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 38 
Log Likelihood: 110.826 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9915 0.9915 0.9828 0.9828 0.9806 0.9806 0.9549 0.9549 0.9025 0.9025 0.9025 0.9025 0.8897 0.8897 0.8854 0.8854 0.7257 0.7257 0.5748 0.01215
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.433295   0.455959   0.950    0.367
capital.l1      0.061235   0.140946   0.434    0.674
loans.l2       -0.171709   0.333620  -0.515    0.619
capital.l2      0.098039   0.100612   0.974    0.355
loans.l3        0.066100   0.335314   0.197    0.848
capital.l3      0.017429   0.126874   0.137    0.894
loans.l4        0.280216   0.432470   0.648    0.533
capital.l4     -0.017725   0.179831  -0.099    0.924
loans.l5       -0.225585   0.356789  -0.632    0.543
capital.l5      0.100338   0.120017   0.836    0.425
loans.l6        0.046904   0.398323   0.118    0.909
capital.l6      0.049968   0.136930   0.365    0.724
loans.l7        0.036407   0.340965   0.107    0.917
capital.l7      0.120363   0.099723   1.207    0.258
loans.l8       -0.251288   0.334829  -0.750    0.472
capital.l8      0.086920   0.151003   0.576    0.579
loans.l9       -0.268834   0.263933  -1.019    0.335
capital.l9      0.070499   0.103301   0.682    0.512
loans.l10       0.004168   0.003638   1.146    0.281
capital.l10     0.034714   0.124619   0.279    0.787
const           0.011910   0.114954   0.104    0.920
ten_two         0.017025   0.044867   0.379    0.713
ten_two_unexp  -0.100637   0.216165  -0.466    0.653
ten             0.157250   0.436157   0.361    0.727
ten_unexp       0.222185   0.591718   0.375    0.716
cpi            -5.160351   7.797364  -0.662    0.525
cpi_unexp       2.345560   9.267565   0.253    0.806
jobs            2.184190  11.417425   0.191    0.853
jobs_unexp    -10.458224  14.258107  -0.733    0.482


Residual standard error: 0.08782 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7232, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1379 
F-statistic: 0.8398 on 28 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.6611 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.535150   0.824050   0.649  0.53229   
capital.l1      0.102366   0.254731   0.402  0.69716   
loans.l2        0.945012   0.602948   1.567  0.15148   
capital.l2     -0.324470   0.181835  -1.784  0.10802   
loans.l3        0.231184   0.606010   0.381  0.71169   
capital.l3      0.069455   0.229298   0.303  0.76885   
loans.l4       -0.331140   0.781600  -0.424  0.68175   
capital.l4     -0.191774   0.325006  -0.590  0.56966   
loans.l5       -0.311152   0.644822  -0.483  0.64094   
capital.l5     -0.204679   0.216905  -0.944  0.37000   
loans.l6        0.172176   0.719887   0.239  0.81633   
capital.l6     -0.175042   0.247473  -0.707  0.49727   
loans.l7       -0.238719   0.616223  -0.387  0.70747   
capital.l7      0.018564   0.180229   0.103  0.92022   
loans.l8        1.622858   0.605134   2.682  0.02513 * 
capital.l8      0.227736   0.272907   0.834  0.42560   
loans.l9       -1.627868   0.477003  -3.413  0.00772 **
capital.l9     -0.188958   0.186696  -1.012  0.33792   
loans.l10       0.015230   0.006574   2.317  0.04574 * 
capital.l10    -0.175665   0.225223  -0.780  0.45543   
const           0.038250   0.207755   0.184  0.85801   
ten_two         0.057354   0.081087   0.707  0.49728   
ten_two_unexp  -1.161546   0.390674  -2.973  0.01562 * 
ten             0.208670   0.788262   0.265  0.79719   
ten_unexp       1.382669   1.069408   1.293  0.22824   
cpi            -3.276586  14.092115  -0.233  0.82134   
cpi_unexp      -6.947916  16.749196  -0.415  0.68799   
jobs            5.829590  20.634623   0.283  0.78394   
jobs_unexp    -20.494460  25.768566  -0.795  0.44689   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1587 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8261, Adjusted R-squared: 0.285 
F-statistic: 1.527 on 28 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.2589 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.007713 -0.003907
capital -0.003907  0.025192

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2803
capital -0.2803  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 263.219 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9136 0.9136 0.9119 0.9119 0.905 0.905 0.8974 0.8974 0.8957 0.8957 0.8939 0.8939 0.8926 0.8926 0.8859 0.8485 0.8485 0.8098 0.8098 0.733
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.079765   0.189284   0.421   0.6769  
capital.l1     0.148091   0.149363   0.991   0.3306  
loans.l2       0.262423   0.201216   1.304   0.2036  
capital.l2     0.035578   0.130066   0.274   0.7866  
loans.l3       0.512963   0.216056   2.374   0.0253 *
capital.l3     0.164881   0.153866   1.072   0.2938  
loans.l4      -0.129724   0.188785  -0.687   0.4981  
capital.l4    -0.073093   0.132582  -0.551   0.5861  
loans.l5      -0.193447   0.177756  -1.088   0.2865  
capital.l5     0.005300   0.126701   0.042   0.9670  
loans.l6      -0.189596   0.166907  -1.136   0.2663  
capital.l6    -0.016673   0.111610  -0.149   0.8824  
loans.l7       0.151738   0.189501   0.801   0.4305  
capital.l7    -0.100702   0.112224  -0.897   0.3778  
loans.l8       0.004593   0.053465   0.086   0.9322  
capital.l8     0.066679   0.110593   0.603   0.5518  
loans.l9      -0.024408   0.053274  -0.458   0.6506  
capital.l9     0.156619   0.110067   1.423   0.1666  
loans.l10      0.033511   0.052357   0.640   0.5277  
capital.l10    0.268773   0.133639   2.011   0.0548 .
const          0.011796   0.024924   0.473   0.6400  
ten_two       -0.005681   0.007970  -0.713   0.4823  
ten_two_unexp -0.006133   0.030571  -0.201   0.8426  
ten           -0.045016   0.117437  -0.383   0.7046  
ten_unexp      0.123255   0.137819   0.894   0.3794  
cpi           -2.769101   1.692877  -1.636   0.1139  
cpi_unexp      0.393615   1.352473   0.291   0.7733  
jobs           0.821868   2.004307   0.410   0.6851  
jobs_unexp    -0.161545   4.224409  -0.038   0.9698  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0318 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6144, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1991 
F-statistic:  1.48 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.1593 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.063531   0.198503   0.320 0.751487    
capital.l1    -0.123890   0.156638  -0.791 0.436140    
loans.l2      -0.046190   0.211016  -0.219 0.828441    
capital.l2    -0.151160   0.136401  -1.108 0.277919    
loans.l3       0.268776   0.226579   1.186 0.246257    
capital.l3    -0.051612   0.161360  -0.320 0.751632    
loans.l4      -0.185944   0.197980  -0.939 0.356268    
capital.l4    -0.017153   0.139040  -0.123 0.902762    
loans.l5      -0.037111   0.186414  -0.199 0.843749    
capital.l5     0.044905   0.132872   0.338 0.738112    
loans.l6       0.260738   0.175036   1.490 0.148355    
capital.l6     0.074373   0.117046   0.635 0.530710    
loans.l7      -0.176096   0.198731  -0.886 0.383684    
capital.l7    -0.008344   0.117690  -0.071 0.944025    
loans.l8       0.065453   0.056069   1.167 0.253656    
capital.l8     0.163882   0.115979   1.413 0.169507    
loans.l9       0.026718   0.055869   0.478 0.636485    
capital.l9    -0.043547   0.115428  -0.377 0.709038    
loans.l10     -0.250027   0.054907  -4.554 0.000109 ***
capital.l10    0.133283   0.140148   0.951 0.350355    
const          0.021244   0.026138   0.813 0.423738    
ten_two       -0.003527   0.008358  -0.422 0.676492    
ten_two_unexp -0.025332   0.032060  -0.790 0.436589    
ten           -0.121912   0.123157  -0.990 0.331350    
ten_unexp      0.171417   0.144531   1.186 0.246340    
cpi           -0.003077   1.775329  -0.002 0.998630    
cpi_unexp     -0.753404   1.418345  -0.531 0.599799    
jobs          -1.069746   2.101927  -0.509 0.615089    
jobs_unexp    -2.650732   4.430159  -0.598 0.554792    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03335 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7513, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4835 
F-statistic: 2.805 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.004967 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0010112 -0.0002361
capital -0.0002361  0.0011121

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2226
capital -0.2226  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 226.022 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.015 1.015 0.9625 0.9625 0.9614 0.9614 0.9537 0.9537 0.9228 0.8837 0.8837 0.8683 0.8683 0.8469 0.8469 0.7894 0.7894 0.5198 0.471 0.471
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.529184   0.161774   3.271  0.00302 **
capital.l1    -0.026677   0.035664  -0.748  0.46116   
loans.l2      -0.206464   0.217328  -0.950  0.35086   
capital.l2     0.008145   0.034597   0.235  0.81573   
loans.l3       0.540323   0.209288   2.582  0.01582 * 
capital.l3     0.039038   0.033392   1.169  0.25298   
loans.l4       0.079366   0.192724   0.412  0.68385   
capital.l4    -0.020263   0.035300  -0.574  0.57089   
loans.l5       0.060921   0.185219   0.329  0.74486   
capital.l5    -0.016667   0.038823  -0.429  0.67123   
loans.l6       0.068210   0.185244   0.368  0.71569   
capital.l6    -0.017018   0.035136  -0.484  0.63219   
loans.l7       0.226654   0.173894   1.303  0.20386   
capital.l7     0.066326   0.047041   1.410  0.17040   
loans.l8      -0.330588   0.172775  -1.913  0.06677 . 
capital.l8     0.025641   0.042038   0.610  0.54719   
loans.l9       0.208165   0.167629   1.242  0.22539   
capital.l9    -0.055172   0.039386  -1.401  0.17309   
loans.l10     -0.409446   0.149554  -2.738  0.01101 * 
capital.l10    0.030866   0.037238   0.829  0.41472   
const         -0.016058   0.013368  -1.201  0.24050   
ten_two        0.003669   0.005913   0.620  0.54038   
ten_two_unexp -0.031913   0.024670  -1.294  0.20719   
ten           -0.104326   0.077793  -1.341  0.19150   
ten_unexp      0.126080   0.083429   1.511  0.14279   
cpi            1.689341   1.358887   1.243  0.22490   
cpi_unexp      0.801314   1.278752   0.627  0.53636   
jobs           0.430168   1.493323   0.288  0.77558   
jobs_unexp    -3.961649   2.565956  -1.544  0.13469   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02131 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8934, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7786 
F-statistic: 7.782 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 6.191e-07 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -1.332381   0.736008  -1.810  0.08183 . 
capital.l1     -0.081106   0.162256  -0.500  0.62137   
loans.l2        0.844986   0.988759   0.855  0.40058   
capital.l2     -0.036642   0.157404  -0.233  0.81775   
loans.l3       -0.493027   0.952180  -0.518  0.60898   
capital.l3     -0.005476   0.151921  -0.036  0.97152   
loans.l4       -0.204338   0.876816  -0.233  0.81755   
capital.l4      0.217562   0.160599   1.355  0.18717   
loans.l5       -0.767167   0.842674  -0.910  0.37098   
capital.l5     -0.060041   0.176629  -0.340  0.73664   
loans.l6        1.659953   0.842789   1.970  0.05963 . 
capital.l6      0.074718   0.159853   0.467  0.64410   
loans.l7       -0.898763   0.791149  -1.136  0.26631   
capital.l7     -0.236474   0.214019  -1.105  0.27931   
loans.l8        0.064789   0.786058   0.082  0.93494   
capital.l8     -0.107519   0.191255  -0.562  0.57881   
loans.l9        1.173538   0.762646   1.539  0.13594   
capital.l9     -0.030571   0.179190  -0.171  0.86585   
loans.l10       0.372923   0.680411   0.548  0.58831   
capital.l10     0.026768   0.169419   0.158  0.87568   
const           0.205732   0.060821   3.383  0.00228 **
ten_two        -0.077332   0.026904  -2.874  0.00797 **
ten_two_unexp  -0.199359   0.112241  -1.776  0.08741 . 
ten             0.957528   0.353928   2.705  0.01188 * 
ten_unexp      -0.377857   0.379571  -0.995  0.32868   
cpi           -14.676794   6.182402  -2.374  0.02527 * 
cpi_unexp       9.176832   5.817819   1.577  0.12680   
jobs            3.056077   6.794030   0.450  0.65657   
jobs_unexp     -0.547759  11.674089  -0.047  0.96293   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.09697 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6796, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3346 
F-statistic:  1.97 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.04307 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans   0.0004543 0.000371
capital 0.0003710 0.009403

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1795
capital 0.1795  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 64.859 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.06694 0.03548
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.08836    0.13442  -0.657    0.514
capital.l1     0.59152    0.44881   1.318    0.193
const          0.08024    0.11650   0.689    0.494
ten_two       -0.02151    0.05014  -0.429    0.670
ten_two_unexp  0.23329    0.19020   1.227    0.225
ten            1.12671    0.87161   1.293    0.202
ten_unexp     -1.22271    0.93368  -1.310    0.196
cpi           -7.87292   11.06920  -0.711    0.480
cpi_unexp      4.10792   10.25911   0.400    0.690
jobs           9.89694   11.67438   0.848    0.400
jobs_unexp    -3.41524   24.38141  -0.140    0.889


Residual standard error: 0.2934 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.07807,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.09588 
F-statistic: 0.4488 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.9148 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.001915   0.040066  -0.048   0.9621  
capital.l1    -0.014056   0.133778  -0.105   0.9167  
const          0.055451   0.034726   1.597   0.1163  
ten_two        0.018147   0.014944   1.214   0.2300  
ten_two_unexp -0.036804   0.056693  -0.649   0.5190  
ten            0.417833   0.259804   1.608   0.1137  
ten_unexp     -0.397720   0.278307  -1.429   0.1589  
cpi           -5.935512   3.299446  -1.799   0.0777 .
cpi_unexp      3.841524   3.057978   1.256   0.2145  
jobs          -3.078520   3.479834  -0.885   0.3803  
jobs_unexp     7.183130   7.267476   0.988   0.3275  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08746 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1917, Adjusted R-squared: 0.03913 
F-statistic: 1.257 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.2786 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    8.610e-02 -7.684e-05
capital -7.684e-05  7.650e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    1.000000 -0.002994
capital -0.002994  1.000000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 100.458 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.5605 0.4971
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.437785   0.370466   1.182    0.268
capital.l1     0.173351   0.179243   0.967    0.359
const         -0.008761   0.049569  -0.177    0.864
ten_two       -0.008927   0.015254  -0.585    0.573
ten_two_unexp  0.061748   0.067673   0.912    0.385
ten            0.024757   0.119339   0.207    0.840
ten_unexp     -0.074267   0.126918  -0.585    0.573
cpi            0.860645   2.861562   0.301    0.770
cpi_unexp     -1.261308   3.083981  -0.409    0.692
jobs           0.994606  11.589244   0.086    0.933
jobs_unexp     0.624106  11.816952   0.053    0.959


Residual standard error: 0.02049 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3066, Adjusted R-squared: -0.4639 
F-statistic: 0.3979 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.9163 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.341610   0.794794   0.430    0.677
capital.l1     -0.501210   0.384547  -1.303    0.225
const           0.001353   0.106345   0.013    0.990
ten_two         0.038577   0.032725   1.179    0.269
ten_two_unexp  -0.174641   0.145185  -1.203    0.260
ten            -0.034222   0.256029  -0.134    0.897
ten_unexp       0.193934   0.272289   0.712    0.494
cpi            -2.800952   6.139161  -0.456    0.659
cpi_unexp       2.588885   6.616337   0.391    0.705
jobs           -8.578528  24.863428  -0.345    0.738
jobs_unexp    -21.451105  25.351951  -0.846    0.419


Residual standard error: 0.04396 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.304,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.4693 
F-statistic: 0.3932 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.919 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0004198 0.0002776
capital 0.0002776 0.0019323

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3082
capital 0.3082  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 109.158 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6012 0.229
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.155170   0.382527   0.406   0.6945  
capital.l1     -0.942147   1.151853  -0.818   0.4345  
const          -0.247628   0.142898  -1.733   0.1172  
ten_two        -0.003982   0.038879  -0.102   0.9207  
ten_two_unexp   0.099178   0.182243   0.544   0.5995  
ten             0.371661   0.417464   0.890   0.3965  
ten_unexp      -0.299695   0.363845  -0.824   0.4314  
cpi            -8.082838  11.604459  -0.697   0.5037  
cpi_unexp       3.126254  11.379767   0.275   0.7897  
jobs           62.156840  31.375171   1.981   0.0789 .
jobs_unexp    -30.654235  24.272456  -1.263   0.2384  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05472 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5773, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1076 
F-statistic: 1.229 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.3833 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.181868   0.082609  -2.202   0.0552 .
capital.l1     0.217010   0.248749   0.872   0.4057  
const         -0.017433   0.030860  -0.565   0.5859  
ten_two        0.005957   0.008396   0.709   0.4960  
ten_two_unexp -0.007143   0.039356  -0.181   0.8600  
ten            0.106613   0.090154   1.183   0.2673  
ten_unexp     -0.144478   0.078574  -1.839   0.0991 .
cpi           -4.841075   2.506050  -1.932   0.0854 .
cpi_unexp      4.455188   2.457526   1.813   0.1033  
jobs           6.731994   6.775649   0.994   0.3464  
jobs_unexp    -2.924611   5.241777  -0.558   0.5905  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01182 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6681, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2994 
F-statistic: 1.812 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.1925 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0029945 -0.0003326
capital -0.0003326  0.0001397

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.5143
capital -0.5143  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 39 
Log Likelihood: 201.091 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9777 0.9777 0.9354 0.9354 0.9151 0.9151 0.9051 0.9051 0.8528 0.8528  0.84  0.84 0.801 0.801 0.6686 0.6686 0.6644 0.6644 0.4072 0.4072
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.289138   0.311203  -0.929    0.375
capital.l1     0.186781   0.259121   0.721    0.488
loans.l2      -0.168514   0.299378  -0.563    0.586
capital.l2     0.202440   0.234812   0.862    0.409
loans.l3       0.184196   0.314768   0.585    0.571
capital.l3    -0.083174   0.210479  -0.395    0.701
loans.l4      -0.136600   0.274157  -0.498    0.629
capital.l4    -0.133665   0.226301  -0.591    0.568
loans.l5      -0.211658   0.265427  -0.797    0.444
capital.l5    -0.058427   0.255830  -0.228    0.824
loans.l6      -0.045563   0.295644  -0.154    0.881
capital.l6     0.100100   0.111127   0.901    0.389
loans.l7       0.038203   0.319527   0.120    0.907
capital.l7     0.186713   0.123799   1.508    0.162
loans.l8       0.018635   0.262272   0.071    0.945
capital.l8     0.052899   0.105006   0.504    0.625
loans.l9      -0.190638   0.275205  -0.693    0.504
capital.l9    -0.102923   0.122284  -0.842    0.420
loans.l10      0.042920   0.026776   1.603    0.140
capital.l10    0.145461   0.103452   1.406    0.190
const          0.040683   0.063479   0.641    0.536
ten_two        0.004513   0.020334   0.222    0.829
ten_two_unexp  0.080045   0.054531   1.468    0.173
ten           -0.023554   0.202287  -0.116    0.910
ten_unexp     -0.070129   0.215615  -0.325    0.752
cpi           -0.277202   4.749581  -0.058    0.955
cpi_unexp     -4.568193   3.731769  -1.224    0.249
jobs          -0.396162   6.145246  -0.064    0.950
jobs_unexp     7.474099   6.392652   1.169    0.269


Residual standard error: 0.03395 on 10 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7163, Adjusted R-squared: -0.07789 
F-statistic: 0.9019 on 28 and 10 DF,  p-value: 0.6102 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.419632   0.397490   1.056   0.3159  
capital.l1    -0.380056   0.330968  -1.148   0.2776  
loans.l2       0.435009   0.382387   1.138   0.2818  
capital.l2    -0.242824   0.299918  -0.810   0.4370  
loans.l3       0.362939   0.402043   0.903   0.3879  
capital.l3     0.056756   0.268839   0.211   0.8370  
loans.l4       0.147370   0.350172   0.421   0.6828  
capital.l4    -0.047416   0.289048  -0.164   0.8730  
loans.l5       0.260596   0.339022   0.769   0.4599  
capital.l5     0.190948   0.326764   0.584   0.5719  
loans.l6      -0.262789   0.377617  -0.696   0.5023  
capital.l6    -0.063942   0.141939  -0.450   0.6620  
loans.l7      -0.058470   0.408122  -0.143   0.8889  
capital.l7    -0.156803   0.158125  -0.992   0.3448  
loans.l8      -0.267037   0.334992  -0.797   0.4439  
capital.l8    -0.095478   0.134121  -0.712   0.4928  
loans.l9      -0.281701   0.351511  -0.801   0.4415  
capital.l9    -0.165030   0.156190  -1.057   0.3156  
loans.l10     -0.005850   0.034201  -0.171   0.8676  
capital.l10    0.124249   0.132136   0.940   0.3692  
const          0.150538   0.081079   1.857   0.0930 .
ten_two       -0.054335   0.025972  -2.092   0.0629 .
ten_two_unexp -0.067924   0.069651  -0.975   0.3525  
ten            0.109245   0.258375   0.423   0.6814  
ten_unexp     -0.003395   0.275398  -0.012   0.9904  
cpi            2.639762   6.066493   0.435   0.6727  
cpi_unexp     -4.046636   4.766473  -0.849   0.4158  
jobs          -7.870928   7.849134  -1.003   0.3396  
jobs_unexp     6.764152   8.165138   0.828   0.4268  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04337 on 10 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6847, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1981 
F-statistic: 0.7756 on 28 and 10 DF,  p-value: 0.7166 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0011528 0.0006603
capital 0.0006603 0.0018807

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.4484
capital 0.4484  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 233.855 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.4057 0.07557
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.413145   0.125233   3.299  0.00174 **
capital.l1    -0.010195   0.079711  -0.128  0.89871   
const          0.029397   0.014430   2.037  0.04664 * 
ten_two       -0.017976   0.006686  -2.689  0.00956 **
ten_two_unexp  0.007445   0.020645   0.361  0.71981   
ten            0.088764   0.096057   0.924  0.35964   
ten_unexp     -0.091771   0.103642  -0.885  0.37990   
cpi           -0.539693   1.239615  -0.435  0.66506   
cpi_unexp      0.345968   1.133719   0.305  0.76144   
jobs           1.884000   1.305937   1.443  0.15501   
jobs_unexp    -1.313277   2.732240  -0.481  0.63274   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03293 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5198, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4292 
F-statistic: 5.737 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 8.888e-06 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.358167   0.214536   1.669   0.1009  
capital.l1    -0.083042   0.136553  -0.608   0.5457  
const          0.021219   0.024720   0.858   0.3946  
ten_two       -0.002758   0.011453  -0.241   0.8106  
ten_two_unexp -0.010303   0.035368  -0.291   0.7720  
ten            0.144608   0.164555   0.879   0.3835  
ten_unexp     -0.157022   0.177548  -0.884   0.3805  
cpi           -3.562556   2.123583  -1.678   0.0993 .
cpi_unexp      3.062014   1.942173   1.577   0.1208  
jobs           2.549811   2.237200   1.140   0.2595  
jobs_unexp    -2.207806   4.680596  -0.472   0.6391  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05641 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.151,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.009201 
F-statistic: 0.9426 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.503 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0010842 0.0003159
capital 0.0003159 0.0031819

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1701
capital 0.1701  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 121.043 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.06455 0.06455
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.0778985  0.3280630   0.237    0.818
capital.l1     0.0430630  0.2329299   0.185    0.857
const         -0.0001637  0.0348035  -0.005    0.996
ten_two        0.0112047  0.0095539   1.173    0.271
ten_two_unexp -0.0115049  0.0401472  -0.287    0.781
ten            0.0337187  0.1073963   0.314    0.761
ten_unexp     -0.0500711  0.0945009  -0.530    0.609
cpi           -0.2133138  2.0977325  -0.102    0.921
cpi_unexp      1.9093930  2.1563044   0.885    0.399
jobs          -3.4639708  7.9969531  -0.433    0.675
jobs_unexp     0.0598328  7.2135496   0.008    0.994


Residual standard error: 0.01472 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3515, Adjusted R-squared: -0.369 
F-statistic: 0.4878 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.8606 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.26280    0.46422  -0.566    0.585
capital.l1     -0.09180    0.32961  -0.279    0.787
const           0.05645    0.04925   1.146    0.281
ten_two         0.01844    0.01352   1.364    0.206
ten_two_unexp   0.04698    0.05681   0.827    0.430
ten            -0.01571    0.15197  -0.103    0.920
ten_unexp      -0.15748    0.13372  -1.178    0.269
cpi            -3.11866    2.96839  -1.051    0.321
cpi_unexp      -1.47185    3.05127  -0.482    0.641
jobs          -19.24809   11.31605  -1.701    0.123
jobs_unexp      3.58639   10.20750   0.351    0.733


Residual standard error: 0.02082 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7021, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3711 
F-statistic: 2.121 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.1365 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   2.166e-04 1.413e-05
capital 1.413e-05 4.336e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.04612
capital 0.04612 1.00000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 50 
Log Likelihood: 277.501 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9296 0.9296 0.9098 0.9098 0.9003 0.8899 0.8899 0.8879 0.8879 0.8846 0.8602 0.8602 0.8594 0.8594 0.785 0.785 0.7799 0.7799 0.5873 0.008528
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -0.091055   0.185705  -0.490  0.62899   
capital.l1      2.542776   4.011988   0.634  0.53306   
loans.l2       -0.505951   0.170599  -2.966  0.00738 **
capital.l2     -0.756693   3.985760  -0.190  0.85125   
loans.l3       -0.098046   0.178604  -0.549  0.58883   
capital.l3      4.628130   3.818873   1.212  0.23901   
loans.l4       -0.193340   0.174802  -1.106  0.28121   
capital.l4     -1.749645   4.123720  -0.424  0.67567   
loans.l5       -0.028927   0.171959  -0.168  0.86802   
capital.l5      0.220223   3.952128   0.056  0.95609   
loans.l6       -0.116797   0.188645  -0.619  0.54249   
capital.l6     -1.121131   1.432172  -0.783  0.44247   
loans.l7       -0.113044   0.223405  -0.506  0.61812   
capital.l7     -0.237311   0.997018  -0.238  0.81417   
loans.l8        0.045180   0.216212   0.209  0.83649   
capital.l8     -1.170743   0.943330  -1.241  0.22826   
loans.l9       -0.163547   0.202799  -0.806  0.42902   
capital.l9      0.612313   0.680857   0.899  0.37868   
loans.l10       0.001219   0.003949   0.309  0.76062   
capital.l10    -1.744859   0.731098  -2.387  0.02649 * 
const           0.093503   0.122650   0.762  0.45433   
ten_two        -0.014174   0.040844  -0.347  0.73202   
ten_two_unexp  -0.128782   0.112233  -1.147  0.26410   
ten             0.489975   0.491756   0.996  0.33041   
ten_unexp      -0.328017   0.538468  -0.609  0.54895   
cpi            -8.170194   6.929955  -1.179  0.25160   
cpi_unexp       5.513426   5.435971   1.014  0.32201   
jobs           19.150052   7.568908   2.530  0.01947 * 
jobs_unexp    -20.951715  14.406757  -1.454  0.16065   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1138 on 21 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.589,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.04091 
F-statistic: 1.075 on 28 and 21 DF,  p-value: 0.4385 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.0043281  0.0077749  -0.557   0.5836   
capital.l1     0.1953989  0.1679702   1.163   0.2578   
loans.l2      -0.0030780  0.0071425  -0.431   0.6709   
capital.l2    -0.2658007  0.1668721  -1.593   0.1261   
loans.l3      -0.0041061  0.0074776  -0.549   0.5887   
capital.l3     0.3950233  0.1598850   2.471   0.0221 * 
loans.l4      -0.0155297  0.0073184  -2.122   0.0459 * 
capital.l4    -0.1361966  0.1726481  -0.789   0.4390   
loans.l5      -0.0126232  0.0071994  -1.753   0.0941 . 
capital.l5     0.2107102  0.1654640   1.273   0.2168   
loans.l6      -0.0178457  0.0078980  -2.260   0.0346 * 
capital.l6    -0.0149288  0.0599608  -0.249   0.8058   
loans.l7      -0.0042381  0.0093533  -0.453   0.6551   
capital.l7     0.1191316  0.0417422   2.854   0.0095 **
loans.l8      -0.0128539  0.0090522  -1.420   0.1703   
capital.l8     0.0033057  0.0394945   0.084   0.9341   
loans.l9       0.0232295  0.0084906   2.736   0.0124 * 
capital.l9     0.0654211  0.0285055   2.295   0.0321 * 
loans.l10     -0.0001986  0.0001653  -1.201   0.2430   
capital.l10   -0.0151140  0.0306089  -0.494   0.6266   
const          0.0089113  0.0051350   1.735   0.0973 . 
ten_two       -0.0034463  0.0017100  -2.015   0.0568 . 
ten_two_unexp  0.0101444  0.0046989   2.159   0.0426 * 
ten            0.0300959  0.0205884   1.462   0.1586   
ten_unexp     -0.0540674  0.0225441  -2.398   0.0258 * 
cpi           -0.2740140  0.2901369  -0.944   0.3557   
cpi_unexp      0.3131509  0.2275882   1.376   0.1833   
jobs           0.5814790  0.3168880   1.835   0.0807 . 
jobs_unexp    -1.4055589  0.6031687  -2.330   0.0298 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.004763 on 21 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9108, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7918 
F-statistic: 7.654 on 28 and 21 DF,  p-value: 5.415e-06 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.294e-02 -1.760e-06
capital -1.760e-06  2.269e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    1.000000 -0.003248
capital -0.003248  1.000000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 168.698 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.3995 0.3683 0.3683 0.1124
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -1.758e-01  1.481e-01  -1.187   0.2409  
capital.l1     2.683e-01  5.438e-01   0.493   0.6239  
loans.l2      -3.101e-04  1.320e-01  -0.002   0.9981  
capital.l2    -5.841e-01  5.622e-01  -1.039   0.3038  
const          1.032e-01  6.454e-02   1.600   0.1160  
ten_two       -8.787e-03  2.446e-02  -0.359   0.7209  
ten_two_unexp  3.478e-02  9.462e-02   0.368   0.7147  
ten            4.410e-01  4.224e-01   1.044   0.3015  
ten_unexp     -4.912e-01  4.671e-01  -1.052   0.2980  
cpi           -2.067e+00  5.862e+00  -0.353   0.7259  
cpi_unexp     -7.757e+00  5.341e+00  -1.452   0.1527  
jobs          -1.351e+01  6.231e+00  -2.169   0.0349 *
jobs_unexp     1.145e+01  1.236e+01   0.927   0.3586  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1421 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3006, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1328 
F-statistic: 1.791 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.0756 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.032530   0.037840   0.860    0.394
capital.l1    -0.158904   0.138894  -1.144    0.258
loans.l2      -0.010474   0.033715  -0.311    0.757
capital.l2    -0.084906   0.143613  -0.591    0.557
const         -0.017250   0.016485  -1.046    0.300
ten_two        0.009826   0.006248   1.573    0.122
ten_two_unexp -0.033375   0.024167  -1.381    0.173
ten            0.078326   0.107887   0.726    0.471
ten_unexp     -0.051875   0.119309  -0.435    0.666
cpi            1.985129   1.497331   1.326    0.191
cpi_unexp     -1.998720   1.364332  -1.465    0.149
jobs           0.772384   1.591511   0.485    0.630
jobs_unexp     0.840578   3.157589   0.266    0.791


Residual standard error: 0.0363 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.157,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.04534 
F-statistic: 0.7759 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.6718 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0202016 0.0009623
capital 0.0009623 0.0013180

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1865
capital 0.1865  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 103.953 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1558 0.07168
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.14119    0.16057  -0.879   0.3832  
capital.l1     0.05608    0.18542   0.302   0.7635  
const          0.13948    0.05639   2.474   0.0166 *
ten_two       -0.04938    0.02373  -2.081   0.0423 *
ten_two_unexp -0.09982    0.08546  -1.168   0.2480  
ten            0.09688    0.41000   0.236   0.8141  
ten_unexp     -0.01436    0.44815  -0.032   0.9746  
cpi            1.97519    5.08250   0.389   0.6991  
cpi_unexp     -4.28371    4.61602  -0.928   0.3576  
jobs          -6.94156    5.33188  -1.302   0.1986  
jobs_unexp    16.94719   11.15604   1.519   0.1347  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1346 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1533, Adjusted R-squared: -0.006497 
F-statistic: 0.9593 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.4889 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.01810    0.13906   0.130  0.89691   
capital.l1    -0.08629    0.16058  -0.537  0.59326   
const          0.15061    0.04883   3.084  0.00324 **
ten_two       -0.03379    0.02055  -1.644  0.10604   
ten_two_unexp -0.12900    0.07401  -1.743  0.08712 . 
ten            0.30463    0.35506   0.858  0.39478   
ten_unexp     -0.31146    0.38810  -0.803  0.42583   
cpi           -2.01584    4.40141  -0.458  0.64883   
cpi_unexp     -0.23081    3.99744  -0.058  0.95417   
jobs          -5.96289    4.61737  -1.291  0.20217   
jobs_unexp    13.99126    9.66105   1.448  0.15345   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1166 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1807, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02606 
F-statistic: 1.169 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3324 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.018124 0.007228
capital 0.007228 0.013592

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.4605
capital 0.4605  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 177.952 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.003 1.003 0.9889 0.9889 0.9848 0.9848 0.9426 0.9426 0.924 0.924 0.9163 0.9163 0.8995 0.8995 0.8851 0.8851 0.8506 0.8506 0.7629 0.3102
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -0.73696    0.21861  -3.371  0.00235 **
capital.l1      0.49601    0.21108   2.350  0.02665 * 
loans.l2       -0.59171    0.20905  -2.830  0.00885 **
capital.l2      0.51973    0.22272   2.334  0.02762 * 
loans.l3       -0.28614    0.18318  -1.562  0.13037   
capital.l3      0.04008    0.21213   0.189  0.85160   
loans.l4       -0.04735    0.15622  -0.303  0.76420   
capital.l4     -0.02398    0.20871  -0.115  0.90942   
loans.l5       -0.10181    0.16963  -0.600  0.55358   
capital.l5      0.35201    0.24458   1.439  0.16201   
loans.l6       -0.16148    0.16186  -0.998  0.32762   
capital.l6      0.32612    0.20963   1.556  0.13187   
loans.l7       -0.19104    0.18642  -1.025  0.31489   
capital.l7      0.05113    0.22302   0.229  0.82045   
loans.l8       -0.11545    0.17603  -0.656  0.51769   
capital.l8      0.05340    0.34069   0.157  0.87666   
loans.l9       -0.47357    0.17680  -2.679  0.01265 * 
capital.l9     -0.50069    0.37502  -1.335  0.19342   
loans.l10      -0.46458    0.19447  -2.389  0.02444 * 
capital.l10    -0.51231    0.29072  -1.762  0.08979 . 
const           0.26085    0.08016   3.254  0.00315 **
ten_two        -0.09627    0.02610  -3.689  0.00105 **
ten_two_unexp   0.01714    0.08583   0.200  0.84328   
ten            -0.22111    0.27219  -0.812  0.42398   
ten_unexp       0.38170    0.30510   1.251  0.22205   
cpi             0.36547    5.03672   0.073  0.94271   
cpi_unexp       4.38970    4.67353   0.939  0.35624   
jobs          -23.33751    8.47624  -2.753  0.01062 * 
jobs_unexp      3.13222    9.22787   0.339  0.73701   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07436 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6691, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3128 
F-statistic: 1.878 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.05512 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -0.525910   0.211175  -2.490  0.01948 * 
capital.l1      0.055937   0.203900   0.274  0.78599   
loans.l2       -0.440954   0.201942  -2.184  0.03821 * 
capital.l2      0.372140   0.215144   1.730  0.09554 . 
loans.l3       -0.306543   0.176953  -1.732  0.09506 . 
capital.l3      0.064429   0.204910   0.314  0.75571   
loans.l4       -0.120081   0.150903  -0.796  0.43338   
capital.l4     -0.179876   0.201607  -0.892  0.38046   
loans.l5        0.001881   0.163865   0.011  0.99093   
capital.l5      0.082613   0.236258   0.350  0.72940   
loans.l6       -0.050700   0.156350  -0.324  0.74833   
capital.l6     -0.103489   0.202495  -0.511  0.61362   
loans.l7       -0.088528   0.180075  -0.492  0.62712   
capital.l7      0.146409   0.215431   0.680  0.50276   
loans.l8        0.114980   0.170040   0.676  0.50489   
capital.l8      0.019363   0.329097   0.059  0.95353   
loans.l9        0.058460   0.170790   0.342  0.73488   
capital.l9     -0.319575   0.362263  -0.882  0.38577   
loans.l10      -0.352811   0.187852  -1.878  0.07162 . 
capital.l10    -0.247021   0.280831  -0.880  0.38713   
const           0.213284   0.077436   2.754  0.01059 * 
ten_two        -0.080202   0.025211  -3.181  0.00377 **
ten_two_unexp  -0.064052   0.082909  -0.773  0.44675   
ten            -0.025197   0.262929  -0.096  0.92439   
ten_unexp       0.326064   0.294719   1.106  0.27870   
cpi             4.733248   4.865394   0.973  0.33960   
cpi_unexp      -5.858475   4.514558  -1.298  0.20579   
jobs          -17.494511   8.187917  -2.137  0.04221 * 
jobs_unexp     12.203597   8.913984   1.369  0.18270   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07183 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5419, Adjusted R-squared: 0.04858 
F-statistic: 1.098 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.4065 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.005529 0.002186
capital 0.002186 0.005159

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.4094
capital 0.4094  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 214.676 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2368 0.1599
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.2201426  0.1407137  -1.564    0.124
capital.l1    -0.0567172  0.1118999  -0.507    0.614
const         -0.0115470  0.0180060  -0.641    0.524
ten_two       -0.0003171  0.0077271  -0.041    0.967
ten_two_unexp -0.0026233  0.0279494  -0.094    0.926
ten           -0.1529666  0.1348220  -1.135    0.262
ten_unexp      0.0853828  0.1452033   0.588    0.559
cpi            2.3544689  1.7056710   1.380    0.173
cpi_unexp     -0.9899857  1.5472911  -0.640    0.525
jobs          -1.2486143  1.8015638  -0.693    0.491
jobs_unexp     1.5063081  3.8393065   0.392    0.696


Residual standard error: 0.04449 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1061, Adjusted R-squared: -0.06256 
F-statistic: 0.6291 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.7823 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.111543   0.184647  -0.604    0.548
capital.l1     0.143212   0.146837   0.975    0.334
const          0.003643   0.023628   0.154    0.878
ten_two       -0.011969   0.010140  -1.180    0.243
ten_two_unexp -0.028905   0.036676  -0.788    0.434
ten            0.270527   0.176916   1.529    0.132
ten_unexp     -0.315804   0.190539  -1.657    0.103
cpi           -0.256105   2.238217  -0.114    0.909
cpi_unexp      1.675028   2.030388   0.825    0.413
jobs           0.934819   2.364050   0.395    0.694
jobs_unexp    -5.664393   5.038018  -1.124    0.266


Residual standard error: 0.05839 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.147,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.01391 
F-statistic: 0.9135 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.5279 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0019797 0.0008055
capital 0.0008055 0.0034090

Correlation matrix of residuals:
        loans capital
loans    1.00    0.31
capital  0.31    1.00


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 351.859 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8363 0.8363 0.7954 0.7605 0.5719 0.5719 0.5136 0.4743
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.083048   0.151289   0.549    0.586
capital.l1     0.186788   0.904198   0.207    0.837
loans.l2       0.136793   0.155965   0.877    0.385
capital.l2     1.193984   0.854068   1.398    0.169
loans.l3      -0.098614   0.158209  -0.623    0.536
capital.l3     0.148327   0.817011   0.182    0.857
loans.l4       0.127557   0.168717   0.756    0.454
capital.l4    -0.014969   0.834965  -0.018    0.986
const         -0.004140   0.021902  -0.189    0.851
ten_two       -0.010613   0.007555  -1.405    0.167
ten_two_unexp  0.049837   0.031075   1.604    0.116
ten           -0.021887   0.121979  -0.179    0.858
ten_unexp     -0.095952   0.134105  -0.716    0.478
cpi            0.531166   1.679870   0.316    0.753
cpi_unexp     -1.087052   1.533553  -0.709    0.482
jobs          -0.369993   1.973600  -0.187    0.852
jobs_unexp     1.598800   3.603309   0.444    0.659


Residual standard error: 0.04052 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2156, Adjusted R-squared: -0.06957 
F-statistic: 0.7561 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.7229 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.007471   0.023891  -0.313   0.7560  
capital.l1     0.092918   0.142789   0.651   0.5186  
loans.l2       0.047209   0.024630   1.917   0.0618 .
capital.l2    -0.271339   0.134872  -2.012   0.0504 .
loans.l3      -0.058536   0.024984  -2.343   0.0237 *
capital.l3     0.095799   0.129020   0.743   0.4617  
loans.l4       0.043115   0.026643   1.618   0.1128  
capital.l4     0.259230   0.131856   1.966   0.0556 .
const          0.006556   0.003459   1.896   0.0646 .
ten_two        0.001869   0.001193   1.566   0.1244  
ten_two_unexp  0.002509   0.004907   0.511   0.6117  
ten           -0.036077   0.019263  -1.873   0.0677 .
ten_unexp      0.030146   0.021178   1.423   0.1617  
cpi            0.313288   0.265281   1.181   0.2440  
cpi_unexp     -0.152803   0.242175  -0.631   0.5313  
jobs           0.119563   0.311666   0.384   0.7031  
jobs_unexp     0.891482   0.569025   1.567   0.1244  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.006399 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.468,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.2745 
F-statistic: 2.419 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.01055 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   1.642e-03 5.372e-05
capital 5.372e-05 4.095e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2072
capital 0.2072  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 174.144 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8269 0.8269 0.7327 0.7327 0.7249 0.7134 0.6472 0.6472
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.14130    0.14726   0.960   0.3425  
capital.l1      0.16106    0.15674   1.028   0.3098  
loans.l2       -0.04250    0.14796  -0.287   0.7753  
capital.l2      0.12915    0.14773   0.874   0.3868  
loans.l3        0.14695    0.14392   1.021   0.3128  
capital.l3     -0.29239    0.14362  -2.036   0.0478 *
loans.l4        0.19588    0.15678   1.249   0.2181  
capital.l4      0.03611    0.16696   0.216   0.8298  
const           0.01406    0.03260   0.431   0.6683  
ten_two        -0.01218    0.01439  -0.847   0.4017  
ten_two_unexp   0.02922    0.05068   0.577   0.5672  
ten             0.51977    0.24187   2.149   0.0372 *
ten_unexp      -0.60894    0.25741  -2.366   0.0225 *
cpi            -3.79082    3.17821  -1.193   0.2394  
cpi_unexp       3.69665    2.66456   1.387   0.1723  
jobs            6.29675    3.23845   1.944   0.0583 .
jobs_unexp    -13.71100    6.65622  -2.060   0.0454 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07224 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.304,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.05085 
F-statistic: 1.201 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.305 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       -0.07051    0.13377  -0.527 0.600742    
capital.l1      0.50652    0.14238   3.558 0.000911 ***
loans.l2        0.17750    0.13440   1.321 0.193455    
capital.l2     -0.03470    0.13420  -0.259 0.797188    
loans.l3       -0.20679    0.13073  -1.582 0.120854    
capital.l3      0.07580    0.13046   0.581 0.564195    
loans.l4        0.52449    0.14241   3.683 0.000628 ***
capital.l4     -0.30922    0.15166  -2.039 0.047501 *  
const          -0.02765    0.02961  -0.934 0.355470    
ten_two         0.01378    0.01307   1.054 0.297520    
ten_two_unexp   0.06258    0.04604   1.359 0.180987    
ten             0.20483    0.21970   0.932 0.356267    
ten_unexp      -0.47195    0.23382  -2.018 0.049671 *  
cpi            -5.10495    2.88699  -1.768 0.083950 .  
cpi_unexp       6.25491    2.42041   2.584 0.013155 *  
jobs            9.88164    2.94171   3.359 0.001623 ** 
jobs_unexp    -18.25486    6.04631  -3.019 0.004207 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06562 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4429, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2404 
F-statistic: 2.187 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.02066 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0052190 0.0008002
capital 0.0008002 0.0043064

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1688
capital 0.1688  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 6.912 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.4373 0.03259
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.06856    0.11240  -0.610    0.545
capital.l1      0.17622    0.20028   0.880    0.383
const          -0.03559    0.14352  -0.248    0.805
ten_two         0.02676    0.05596   0.478    0.634
ten_two_unexp   0.13380    0.20855   0.642    0.524
ten            -0.92983    0.96403  -0.965    0.339
ten_unexp       0.72328    1.04342   0.693    0.491
cpi            11.52726   13.85238   0.832    0.409
cpi_unexp     -13.39579   13.83247  -0.968    0.337
jobs           -3.44476   13.33897  -0.258    0.797
jobs_unexp     29.07239   27.54349   1.056    0.296


Residual standard error: 0.3303 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.05682,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.1211 
F-statistic: 0.3193 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.9726 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.075257   0.066207   1.137  0.26078   
capital.l1     -0.401315   0.117973  -3.402  0.00128 **
const           0.196630   0.084537   2.326  0.02388 * 
ten_two        -0.024711   0.032965  -0.750  0.45680   
ten_two_unexp  -0.005175   0.122840  -0.042  0.96655   
ten            -0.436522   0.567839  -0.769  0.44546   
ten_unexp       0.482575   0.614605   0.785  0.43584   
cpi           -24.639312   8.159434  -3.020  0.00389 **
cpi_unexp      -2.944829   8.147707  -0.361  0.71921   
jobs           -7.026511   7.857023  -0.894  0.37521   
jobs_unexp    -23.649186  16.223877  -1.458  0.15083   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1946 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5814, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5024 
F-statistic: 7.361 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 3.55e-07 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   0.10909 0.01007
capital 0.01007 0.03785

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1567
capital 0.1567  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 181.471 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7066 0.7066 0.6751 0.6751 0.6721 0.6721 0.2983 0.2983
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.295091   0.142953   2.064   0.0449 *
capital.l1    -0.008682   0.219788  -0.039   0.9687  
loans.l2      -0.168277   0.151629  -1.110   0.2731  
capital.l2    -0.074784   0.183155  -0.408   0.6850  
loans.l3       0.003132   0.158602   0.020   0.9843  
capital.l3    -0.034505   0.188577  -0.183   0.8557  
loans.l4       0.007904   0.146425   0.054   0.9572  
capital.l4     0.291750   0.198364   1.471   0.1485  
const          0.081475   0.043265   1.883   0.0663 .
ten_two       -0.048041   0.019449  -2.470   0.0175 *
ten_two_unexp -0.009822   0.057586  -0.171   0.8653  
ten            0.148567   0.259014   0.574   0.5692  
ten_unexp      0.047492   0.290436   0.164   0.8709  
cpi            1.829306   3.256074   0.562   0.5771  
cpi_unexp     -6.198913   3.001822  -2.065   0.0448 *
jobs          -3.942308   3.945962  -0.999   0.3232  
jobs_unexp     5.625438   8.096294   0.695   0.4908  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08123 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4489, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2484 
F-statistic:  2.24 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.01772 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.098361   0.090489  -1.087   0.2830  
capital.l1     0.120071   0.139126   0.863   0.3928  
loans.l2       0.078386   0.095981   0.817   0.4185  
capital.l2    -0.019136   0.115937  -0.165   0.8697  
loans.l3      -0.153611   0.100395  -1.530   0.1332  
capital.l3    -0.087728   0.119369  -0.735   0.4663  
loans.l4      -0.038212   0.092687  -0.412   0.6821  
capital.l4    -0.253530   0.125565  -2.019   0.0496 *
const          0.035076   0.027387   1.281   0.2070  
ten_two       -0.003909   0.012311  -0.318   0.7523  
ten_two_unexp -0.025168   0.036452  -0.690   0.4936  
ten            0.055489   0.163956   0.338   0.7366  
ten_unexp     -0.013903   0.183846  -0.076   0.9401  
cpi           -3.064707   2.061098  -1.487   0.1442  
cpi_unexp      3.723442   1.900156   1.960   0.0564 .
jobs           3.064634   2.497797   1.227   0.2264  
jobs_unexp    -1.510447   5.124961  -0.295   0.7696  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05142 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3065, Adjusted R-squared: 0.05435 
F-statistic: 1.216 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.2946 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0065979 0.0005206
capital 0.0005206 0.0026437

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1247
capital 0.1247  1.0000


VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 190.217 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9724 0.9724 0.8768 0.8768 0.8393 0.8393 0.6923 0.6923 0.626 0.6114 0.4997 0.4997
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.319739   0.142886   2.238  0.03118 * 
capital.l1     0.206352   0.068037   3.033  0.00435 **
loans.l2      -0.156874   0.140095  -1.120  0.26984   
capital.l2     0.015025   0.075045   0.200  0.84238   
loans.l3       0.043293   0.147592   0.293  0.77087   
capital.l3     0.025683   0.073928   0.347  0.73020   
loans.l4       0.360371   0.134096   2.687  0.01063 * 
capital.l4    -0.032902   0.070565  -0.466  0.64369   
loans.l5       0.204763   0.161521   1.268  0.21261   
capital.l5    -0.101923   0.062545  -1.630  0.11145   
loans.l6      -0.460216   0.147832  -3.113  0.00351 **
capital.l6     0.090298   0.066253   1.363  0.18092   
const          0.037808   0.024581   1.538  0.13231   
ten_two       -0.016475   0.009127  -1.805  0.07899 . 
ten_two_unexp  0.033409   0.035413   0.943  0.35143   
ten            0.060184   0.144219   0.417  0.67880   
ten_unexp     -0.060673   0.156755  -0.387  0.70087   
cpi            1.886153   2.200952   0.857  0.39683   
cpi_unexp     -6.949863   2.037228  -3.411  0.00155 **
jobs          -1.126694   2.359011  -0.478  0.63566   
jobs_unexp    11.235911   4.792735   2.344  0.02439 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04439 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6917, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5294 
F-statistic: 4.262 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 6.074e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.328421   0.263085   1.248  0.21954    
capital.l1     -0.109884   0.125271  -0.877  0.38590    
loans.l2       -0.067171   0.257946  -0.260  0.79596    
capital.l2     -0.070697   0.138174  -0.512  0.61186    
loans.l3       -0.631962   0.271750  -2.326  0.02548 *  
capital.l3     -0.017104   0.136118  -0.126  0.90067    
loans.l4       -0.218289   0.246901  -0.884  0.38219    
capital.l4      0.063238   0.129927   0.487  0.62925    
loans.l5       -0.348680   0.297396  -1.172  0.24832    
capital.l5      0.105750   0.115159   0.918  0.36425    
loans.l6       -0.420775   0.272192  -1.546  0.13042    
capital.l6      0.133519   0.121986   1.095  0.28061    
const           0.205860   0.045259   4.549 5.38e-05 ***
ten_two        -0.031691   0.016805  -1.886  0.06698 .  
ten_two_unexp   0.091210   0.065203   1.399  0.16997    
ten             0.008345   0.265539   0.031  0.97510    
ten_unexp      -0.096529   0.288620  -0.334  0.73988    
cpi           -16.895087   4.052444  -4.169  0.00017 ***
cpi_unexp      11.868493   3.750992   3.164  0.00306 ** 
jobs           -3.345936   4.343465  -0.770  0.44586    
jobs_unexp     -7.489932   8.824495  -0.849  0.40133    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08173 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6711, Adjusted R-squared: 0.498 
F-statistic: 3.876 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.0001616 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0019706 0.0002784
capital 0.0002784 0.0066805

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.07672
capital 0.07672 1.00000
Warning in log(det(Sigma)): NaNs produced
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf

[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 302.612 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9496 0.9496 0.9439 0.9439 0.8908 0.8908 0.8784 0.8784 0.8709 0.8636 0.8636 0.8455 0.8455 0.8079 0.8079 0.4421 0.4421 0.3853
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.045418   0.192843   0.236   0.8155  
capital.l1     0.190616   0.276539   0.689   0.4961  
loans.l2       0.139068   0.171083   0.813   0.4229  
capital.l2    -0.013187   0.227469  -0.058   0.9542  
loans.l3       0.219961   0.168179   1.308   0.2012  
capital.l3    -0.061250   0.259214  -0.236   0.8149  
loans.l4       0.058235   0.175037   0.333   0.7418  
capital.l4     0.309929   0.257254   1.205   0.2380  
loans.l5       0.126488   0.175029   0.723   0.4757  
capital.l5     0.243240   0.238948   1.018   0.3171  
loans.l6       0.146836   0.171042   0.858   0.3977  
capital.l6     0.229906   0.249585   0.921   0.3646  
loans.l7       0.359383   0.193636   1.856   0.0736 .
capital.l7     0.029822   0.122988   0.242   0.8101  
loans.l8      -0.218018   0.183854  -1.186   0.2453  
capital.l8     0.273305   0.125767   2.173   0.0381 *
loans.l9      -0.343734   0.176281  -1.950   0.0609 .
capital.l9     0.077480   0.122827   0.631   0.5331  
const          0.001879   0.018087   0.104   0.9180  
ten_two       -0.002060   0.007946  -0.259   0.7973  
ten_two_unexp  0.010903   0.023177   0.470   0.6416  
ten            0.085958   0.100492   0.855   0.3994  
ten_unexp     -0.077899   0.100743  -0.773   0.4456  
cpi            0.696223   1.352279   0.515   0.6106  
cpi_unexp     -1.495634   1.201854  -1.244   0.2233  
jobs          -1.606780   1.580577  -1.017   0.3178  
jobs_unexp    -1.327957   3.570771  -0.372   0.7127  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02837 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5638, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1728 
F-statistic: 1.442 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.1693 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.2428654  0.1236272  -1.964  0.05912 . 
capital.l1    -0.0785009  0.1772824  -0.443  0.66119   
loans.l2       0.0779545  0.1096772   0.711  0.48291   
capital.l2    -0.4177630  0.1458252  -2.865  0.00768 **
loans.l3      -0.0702728  0.1078156  -0.652  0.51967   
capital.l3    -0.1291657  0.1661758  -0.777  0.44329   
loans.l4       0.1334345  0.1122122   1.189  0.24404   
capital.l4    -0.3233849  0.1649193  -1.961  0.05956 . 
loans.l5      -0.0488307  0.1122066  -0.435  0.66665   
capital.l5    -0.2899785  0.1531837  -1.893  0.06837 . 
loans.l6      -0.0237287  0.1096510  -0.216  0.83019   
capital.l6    -0.1377695  0.1600033  -0.861  0.39628   
loans.l7       0.2667417  0.1241355   2.149  0.04013 * 
capital.l7    -0.1412263  0.0788447  -1.791  0.08371 . 
loans.l8       0.1521127  0.1178647   1.291  0.20705   
capital.l8     0.1287058  0.0806260   1.596  0.12126   
loans.l9      -0.2476253  0.1130098  -2.191  0.03662 * 
capital.l9     0.0231611  0.0787415   0.294  0.77075   
const          0.0152943  0.0115950   1.319  0.19748   
ten_two       -0.0040638  0.0050942  -0.798  0.43151   
ten_two_unexp -0.0006274  0.0148580  -0.042  0.96661   
ten           -0.0140183  0.0644228  -0.218  0.82927   
ten_unexp     -0.0347869  0.0645842  -0.539  0.59425   
cpi           -1.5573211  0.8669139  -1.796  0.08286 . 
cpi_unexp      1.0648901  0.7704800   1.382  0.17749   
jobs           0.8228147  1.0132705   0.812  0.42339   
jobs_unexp    -0.2696030  2.2891365  -0.118  0.90706   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01819 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6027, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2465 
F-statistic: 1.692 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.08532 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   8.048e-04 8.601e-05
capital 8.601e-05 3.308e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1667
capital 0.1667  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 60 
Log Likelihood: 248.48 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8625 0.8625 0.8543 0.8543 0.8073 0.8073 0.7802 0.7802 0.7151 0.7151
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.239174   0.140800  -1.699  0.09696 . 
capital.l1     0.514589   0.242481   2.122  0.03991 * 
loans.l2      -0.355862   0.145706  -2.442  0.01899 * 
capital.l2     0.047799   0.247394   0.193  0.84775   
loans.l3      -0.007422   0.148400  -0.050  0.96035   
capital.l3     0.132902   0.240715   0.552  0.58387   
loans.l4      -0.323517   0.135545  -2.387  0.02169 * 
capital.l4     0.196026   0.238811   0.821  0.41648   
loans.l5      -0.156213   0.129996  -1.202  0.23638   
capital.l5     0.673104   0.242771   2.773  0.00833 **
const         -0.015740   0.025929  -0.607  0.54717   
ten_two        0.019676   0.008970   2.193  0.03401 * 
ten_two_unexp  0.009592   0.031775   0.302  0.76428   
ten           -0.033373   0.158429  -0.211  0.83421   
ten_unexp     -0.029830   0.171561  -0.174  0.86282   
cpi           -1.658213   1.954166  -0.849  0.40106   
cpi_unexp      0.670745   1.821791   0.368  0.71463   
jobs           1.268209   2.123063   0.597  0.55356   
jobs_unexp     0.860377   4.444346   0.194  0.84745   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04727 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4215, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1676 
F-statistic:  1.66 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.08943 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -0.027724   0.087281  -0.318 0.752368    
capital.l1    -0.146427   0.150312  -0.974 0.335691    
loans.l2      -0.053947   0.090322  -0.597 0.553612    
capital.l2    -0.226722   0.153357  -1.478 0.146943    
loans.l3      -0.126067   0.091992  -1.370 0.178013    
capital.l3    -0.336397   0.149217  -2.254 0.029577 *  
loans.l4      -0.017870   0.084023  -0.213 0.832629    
capital.l4    -0.089206   0.148037  -0.603 0.550098    
loans.l5      -0.176009   0.080583  -2.184 0.034722 *  
capital.l5     0.053144   0.150491   0.353 0.725795    
const          0.057359   0.016073   3.569 0.000931 ***
ten_two        0.001320   0.005561   0.237 0.813548    
ten_two_unexp -0.013801   0.019697  -0.701 0.487483    
ten            0.085080   0.098209   0.866 0.391358    
ten_unexp     -0.029766   0.106349  -0.280 0.780967    
cpi           -0.808912   1.211367  -0.668 0.508023    
cpi_unexp      0.865091   1.129310   0.766 0.448043    
jobs           0.662986   1.316065   0.504 0.617123    
jobs_unexp     2.078834   2.755005   0.755 0.454822    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0293 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3218, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02408 
F-statistic: 1.081 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.4029 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0022346 -0.0002498
capital -0.0002498  0.0008587

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1803
capital -0.1803  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 169.62 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1782 0.00516
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -1.056e-02  1.310e-01  -0.081   0.9360  
capital.l1     1.880e-02  1.896e-01   0.099   0.9214  
const         -1.040e-02  3.297e-02  -0.315   0.7537  
ten_two        4.597e-04  1.388e-02   0.033   0.9737  
ten_two_unexp  2.332e-02  5.330e-02   0.438   0.6635  
ten            3.075e-01  2.658e-01   1.157   0.2526  
ten_unexp     -7.234e-01  2.810e-01  -2.575   0.0129 *
cpi            1.203e+00  3.167e+00   0.380   0.7055  
cpi_unexp      2.376e+00  2.905e+00   0.818   0.4171  
jobs           2.228e+00  3.401e+00   0.655   0.5153  
jobs_unexp    -1.472e+01  7.109e+00  -2.070   0.0433 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08303 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2993, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1671 
F-statistic: 2.264 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.02736 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.05421    0.09508  -0.570    0.571
capital.l1     0.18362    0.13768   1.334    0.188
const          0.02571    0.02394   1.074    0.288
ten_two       -0.00356    0.01008  -0.353    0.725
ten_two_unexp  0.01098    0.03870   0.284    0.778
ten           -0.02862    0.19299  -0.148    0.883
ten_unexp     -0.02322    0.20398  -0.114    0.910
cpi            0.63982    2.29923   0.278    0.782
cpi_unexp      0.59095    2.10938   0.280    0.780
jobs          -1.96019    2.46914  -0.794    0.431
jobs_unexp     5.28648    5.16091   1.024    0.310


Residual standard error: 0.06028 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.06935,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.1062 
F-statistic: 0.3949 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.9432 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0068943 -0.0003419
capital -0.0003419  0.0036339

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.06831
capital -0.06831  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 269.746 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.059 1.027 1.027 0.9763 0.9763 0.9725 0.9725 0.9426 0.9426 0.9375 0.9375 0.9311 0.9311 0.9057 0.9057 0.8701 0.8701 0.8463 0.8463 0.06382
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.3106685  0.1857768   1.672   0.1065  
capital.l1    -0.3043173  0.1650649  -1.844   0.0767 .
loans.l2       0.1139357  0.1802851   0.632   0.5329  
capital.l2    -0.1434540  0.1616088  -0.888   0.3829  
loans.l3       0.1919630  0.1659933   1.156   0.2580  
capital.l3     0.3224597  0.2371399   1.360   0.1856  
loans.l4      -0.1464398  0.1729295  -0.847   0.4048  
capital.l4    -0.2999722  0.2504795  -1.198   0.2419  
loans.l5      -0.2386603  0.1859759  -1.283   0.2107  
capital.l5     0.4999131  0.2191884   2.281   0.0310 *
loans.l6      -0.1152891  0.1824356  -0.632   0.5329  
capital.l6    -0.2349362  0.2497898  -0.941   0.3556  
loans.l7       0.2393313  0.2174902   1.100   0.2812  
capital.l7    -0.1154188  0.2337928  -0.494   0.6257  
loans.l8       0.4000756  0.2029214   1.972   0.0594 .
capital.l8    -0.0141777  0.3244421  -0.044   0.9655  
loans.l9      -0.3100584  0.1939899  -1.598   0.1221  
capital.l9     0.5020761  0.2593152   1.936   0.0638 .
loans.l10     -0.1948018  0.1934544  -1.007   0.3232  
capital.l10   -0.0015964  0.2778015  -0.006   0.9955  
const          0.0118004  0.0239561   0.493   0.6264  
ten_two       -0.0004164  0.0084032  -0.050   0.9609  
ten_two_unexp -0.0235151  0.0245558  -0.958   0.3471  
ten            0.0155953  0.1080661   0.144   0.8864  
ten_unexp      0.0422360  0.1178486   0.358   0.7229  
cpi           -0.9197234  1.5542099  -0.592   0.5591  
cpi_unexp     -0.5773140  1.3610279  -0.424   0.6749  
jobs           1.3322620  1.8607862   0.716   0.4804  
jobs_unexp    -1.6120865  3.0137817  -0.535   0.5973  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02953 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.626,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.2233 
F-statistic: 1.554 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.1308 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.215979   0.195655   1.104   0.2798  
capital.l1     0.067667   0.173842   0.389   0.7003  
loans.l2       0.163401   0.189871   0.861   0.3973  
capital.l2     0.071170   0.170202   0.418   0.6793  
loans.l3       0.024201   0.174820   0.138   0.8910  
capital.l3     0.161545   0.249749   0.647   0.5234  
loans.l4       0.318326   0.182125   1.748   0.0923 .
capital.l4     0.245269   0.263798   0.930   0.3610  
loans.l5       0.033782   0.195865   0.172   0.8644  
capital.l5    -0.309195   0.230843  -1.339   0.1920  
loans.l6       0.319757   0.192136   1.664   0.1081  
capital.l6     0.414799   0.263072   1.577   0.1269  
loans.l7      -0.112607   0.229055  -0.492   0.6271  
capital.l7     0.089500   0.246224   0.363   0.7192  
loans.l8      -0.322711   0.213711  -1.510   0.1431  
capital.l8     0.062387   0.341694   0.183   0.8565  
loans.l9       0.156953   0.204305   0.768   0.4493  
capital.l9    -0.462906   0.273104  -1.695   0.1020  
loans.l10     -0.473458   0.203741  -2.324   0.0282 *
capital.l10    0.095521   0.292573   0.326   0.7467  
const         -0.005295   0.025230  -0.210   0.8354  
ten_two        0.005167   0.008850   0.584   0.5644  
ten_two_unexp -0.011635   0.025862  -0.450   0.6565  
ten           -0.049257   0.113812  -0.433   0.6687  
ten_unexp     -0.002217   0.124115  -0.018   0.9859  
cpi            1.279232   1.636851   0.782   0.4416  
cpi_unexp     -0.466462   1.433397  -0.325   0.7475  
jobs          -2.252955   1.959729  -1.150   0.2608  
jobs_unexp     4.706555   3.174033   1.483   0.1501  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0311 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6338, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2394 
F-statistic: 1.607 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.1138 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   8.720e-04 1.752e-05
capital 1.752e-05 9.672e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.01908
capital 0.01908 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 301.998 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9274 0.9274 0.9254 0.9225 0.9225 0.913 0.8889 0.8889 0.882 0.882 0.8754 0.8754 0.8686 0.8686 0.7374 0.7374 0.4688 0.03009
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.2509273  0.1995738   1.257   0.2187  
capital.l1    -0.1177030  0.1379710  -0.853   0.4006  
loans.l2      -0.0769208  0.2007222  -0.383   0.7044  
capital.l2     0.2803568  0.1397686   2.006   0.0543 .
loans.l3      -0.0762604  0.2211825  -0.345   0.7327  
capital.l3     0.0729963  0.1439654   0.507   0.6160  
loans.l4      -0.0404406  0.2500777  -0.162   0.8727  
capital.l4     0.1806705  0.1326842   1.362   0.1838  
loans.l5       0.0253353  0.2038560   0.124   0.9020  
capital.l5     0.1592293  0.1348263   1.181   0.2472  
loans.l6       0.1159922  0.2088016   0.556   0.5828  
capital.l6     0.2291429  0.1490246   1.538   0.1350  
loans.l7      -0.0338560  0.2450530  -0.138   0.8911  
capital.l7    -0.0552852  0.1468182  -0.377   0.7092  
loans.l8       0.2210204  0.1642053   1.346   0.1887  
capital.l8     0.1100919  0.1362936   0.808   0.4258  
loans.l9      -0.2950150  0.1672567  -1.764   0.0883 .
capital.l9    -0.0553750  0.1406182  -0.394   0.6966  
const         -0.0168429  0.0140243  -1.201   0.2395  
ten_two        0.0007015  0.0049370   0.142   0.8880  
ten_two_unexp -0.0005507  0.0179531  -0.031   0.9757  
ten            0.0409226  0.0762640   0.537   0.5956  
ten_unexp     -0.0604154  0.0908911  -0.665   0.5115  
cpi            0.0196198  0.9394755   0.021   0.9835  
cpi_unexp     -0.0941109  0.8669056  -0.109   0.9143  
jobs           1.2014605  1.0125251   1.187   0.2450  
jobs_unexp    -1.6572152  2.2245589  -0.745   0.4623  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02019 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared:  0.79,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.6017 
F-statistic: 4.196 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.0001427 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.439141   0.275782   1.592   0.1221  
capital.l1    -0.128691   0.190656  -0.675   0.5050  
loans.l2      -0.281105   0.277369  -1.013   0.3192  
capital.l2     0.069676   0.193140   0.361   0.7209  
loans.l3      -0.096811   0.305642  -0.317   0.7537  
capital.l3    -0.016516   0.198939  -0.083   0.9344  
loans.l4       0.240854   0.345571   0.697   0.4914  
capital.l4    -0.043065   0.183350  -0.235   0.8160  
loans.l5      -0.026303   0.281699  -0.093   0.9262  
capital.l5     0.018935   0.186310   0.102   0.9197  
loans.l6       0.198432   0.288534   0.688   0.4971  
capital.l6    -0.111828   0.205930  -0.543   0.5913  
loans.l7       0.169211   0.338628   0.500   0.6211  
capital.l7     0.348727   0.202882   1.719   0.0963 .
loans.l8      -0.109471   0.226908  -0.482   0.6331  
capital.l8     0.227807   0.188338   1.210   0.2362  
loans.l9      -0.212994   0.231125  -0.922   0.3644  
capital.l9    -0.034265   0.194314  -0.176   0.8613  
const         -0.002221   0.019380  -0.115   0.9095  
ten_two        0.001029   0.006822   0.151   0.8812  
ten_two_unexp  0.001516   0.024809   0.061   0.9517  
ten           -0.044688   0.105386  -0.424   0.6747  
ten_unexp      0.022702   0.125598   0.181   0.8578  
cpi            1.120840   1.298219   0.863   0.3950  
cpi_unexp     -0.037728   1.197938  -0.031   0.9751  
jobs           0.278909   1.399163   0.199   0.8434  
jobs_unexp    -1.610152   3.074018  -0.524   0.6044  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02791 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6771, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3875 
F-statistic: 2.338 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.01406 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0004078 0.0002303
capital 0.0002303 0.0007787

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.4087
capital 0.4087  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 276.669 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.3807 0.1892
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.352357   0.140716   2.504   0.0154 *
capital.l1    -0.128164   0.190375  -0.673   0.5037  
const          0.016462   0.016560   0.994   0.3247  
ten_two       -0.008105   0.007059  -1.148   0.2560  
ten_two_unexp -0.036710   0.026399  -1.391   0.1702  
ten            0.094833   0.111364   0.852   0.3983  
ten_unexp     -0.023174   0.120473  -0.192   0.8482  
cpi            0.312057   1.517180   0.206   0.8378  
cpi_unexp     -1.082799   1.322746  -0.819   0.4167  
jobs           2.709971   1.736187   1.561   0.1245  
jobs_unexp    -1.938531   3.295389  -0.588   0.5589  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03797 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3473, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2242 
F-statistic:  2.82 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.007014 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.119745   0.091556  -1.308  0.19656   
capital.l1    -0.160819   0.123867  -1.298  0.19980   
const          0.016274   0.010774   1.510  0.13687   
ten_two       -0.007978   0.004593  -1.737  0.08819 . 
ten_two_unexp  0.027616   0.017177   1.608  0.11383   
ten           -0.115475   0.072459  -1.594  0.11696   
ten_unexp      0.094454   0.078385   1.205  0.23356   
cpi            0.577627   0.987149   0.585  0.56093   
cpi_unexp     -1.573846   0.860641  -1.829  0.07308 . 
jobs           3.239300   1.129645   2.868  0.00592 **
jobs_unexp    -0.149993   2.144136  -0.070  0.94449   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0247 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3699, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2511 
F-statistic: 3.112 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.003446 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.441e-03 -2.522e-05
capital -2.522e-05  6.102e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.02689
capital -0.02689  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 35 
Log Likelihood: 145.807 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.088 1.008 1.008 0.9527 0.9527 0.9343 0.9343 0.9072 0.9072 0.907 0.907 0.901 0.901 0.8829 0.8829 0.808 0.7897 0.7897 0.647 0.1049
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.04643    0.29056  -0.160   0.8783  
capital.l1      0.22322    0.13929   1.603   0.1602  
loans.l2        0.68762    0.28842   2.384   0.0545 .
capital.l2     -0.20008    0.20829  -0.961   0.3738  
loans.l3       -0.30959    0.31799  -0.974   0.3679  
capital.l3      0.10314    0.16405   0.629   0.5527  
loans.l4        0.26913    0.19729   1.364   0.2215  
capital.l4     -0.12796    0.12256  -1.044   0.3367  
loans.l5        0.20230    0.28416   0.712   0.5032  
capital.l5      0.06558    0.13810   0.475   0.6517  
loans.l6        0.09511    0.19528   0.487   0.6435  
capital.l6     -0.09955    0.11153  -0.893   0.4065  
loans.l7       -0.15940    0.17098  -0.932   0.3872  
capital.l7      0.11613    0.10700   1.085   0.3195  
loans.l8        0.38155    0.26751   1.426   0.2037  
capital.l8     -0.10716    0.13958  -0.768   0.4718  
loans.l9        0.42161    0.17721   2.379   0.0548 .
capital.l9     -0.10928    0.08910  -1.226   0.2660  
loans.l10       0.05402    0.08546   0.632   0.5506  
capital.l10     0.05648    0.11604   0.487   0.6437  
const          -0.07906    0.06606  -1.197   0.2766  
ten_two        -0.05487    0.03586  -1.530   0.1768  
ten_two_unexp  -0.11235    0.16765  -0.670   0.5277  
ten             0.31256    0.39045   0.801   0.4539  
ten_unexp      -0.49122    0.53853  -0.912   0.3969  
cpi             7.23677    4.13686   1.749   0.1308  
cpi_unexp       0.50623    6.06893   0.083   0.9362  
jobs           20.46999   11.84671   1.728   0.1347  
jobs_unexp    -25.97822   10.54580  -2.463   0.0489 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04432 on 6 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9135, Adjusted R-squared:  0.51 
F-statistic: 2.264 on 28 and 6 DF,  p-value: 0.1555 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.66971    0.78405  -0.854   0.4258  
capital.l1     -0.06581    0.37587  -0.175   0.8668  
loans.l2        1.44095    0.77828   1.851   0.1136  
capital.l2     -0.48308    0.56206  -0.859   0.4231  
loans.l3       -0.23723    0.85809  -0.276   0.7915  
capital.l3     -0.07975    0.44268  -0.180   0.8630  
loans.l4        0.19393    0.53239   0.364   0.7282  
capital.l4     -0.38183    0.33072  -1.155   0.2922  
loans.l5       -0.17040    0.76679  -0.222   0.8315  
capital.l5     -0.12294    0.37266  -0.330   0.7527  
loans.l6        0.56080    0.52695   1.064   0.3282  
capital.l6     -0.32634    0.30096  -1.084   0.3199  
loans.l7        0.04936    0.46138   0.107   0.9183  
capital.l7      0.05542    0.28875   0.192   0.8541  
loans.l8        0.46677    0.72186   0.647   0.5418  
capital.l8      0.02338    0.37665   0.062   0.9525  
loans.l9        0.59365    0.47819   1.241   0.2608  
capital.l9     -0.24319    0.24044  -1.011   0.3508  
loans.l10      -0.29773    0.23060  -1.291   0.2442  
capital.l10    -0.07369    0.31313  -0.235   0.8218  
const          -0.19933    0.17827  -1.118   0.3063  
ten_two        -0.01540    0.09676  -0.159   0.8788  
ten_two_unexp   0.11112    0.45240   0.246   0.8142  
ten             0.23909    1.05362   0.227   0.8280  
ten_unexp      -0.72189    1.45320  -0.497   0.6370  
cpi             8.37017   11.16312   0.750   0.4817  
cpi_unexp     -14.05554   16.37673  -0.858   0.4237  
jobs           33.28860   31.96781   1.041   0.3379  
jobs_unexp    -58.67032   28.45735  -2.062   0.0849 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1196 on 6 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7944, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1651 
F-statistic: 0.8279 on 28 and 6 DF,  p-value: 0.6685 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0019645 -0.0001481
capital -0.0001481  0.0143050

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.02794
capital -0.02794  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 128.567 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2599 0.0278
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.223738   0.171988   1.301   0.1989  
capital.l1    -0.072963   0.121429  -0.601   0.5505  
const          0.021513   0.038051   0.565   0.5742  
ten_two        0.005027   0.016036   0.313   0.7551  
ten_two_unexp -0.109542   0.059698  -1.835   0.0721 .
ten           -0.105921   0.291013  -0.364   0.7173  
ten_unexp      0.415251   0.313482   1.325   0.1910  
cpi            2.618294   3.645131   0.718   0.4757  
cpi_unexp     -4.329733   3.331213  -1.300   0.1993  
jobs           0.308236   3.869783   0.080   0.9368  
jobs_unexp     6.902466   8.370962   0.825   0.4133  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.09551 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1656, Adjusted R-squared: 0.008144 
F-statistic: 1.052 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.415 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.09724    0.23240  -0.418   0.6773  
capital.l1      0.06401    0.16408   0.390   0.6980  
const          -0.04870    0.05142  -0.947   0.3479  
ten_two         0.02486    0.02167   1.147   0.2565  
ten_two_unexp  -0.16585    0.08067  -2.056   0.0447 *
ten            -0.24502    0.39324  -0.623   0.5359  
ten_unexp       0.36932    0.42360   0.872   0.3872  
cpi             3.18795    4.92554   0.647   0.5203  
cpi_unexp      -0.69316    4.50135  -0.154   0.8782  
jobs            9.97109    5.22910   1.907   0.0620 .
jobs_unexp    -21.14525   11.31139  -1.869   0.0671 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1291 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1828, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02862 
F-statistic: 1.186 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3214 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.009121 0.007872
capital 0.007872 0.016655

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6387
capital 0.6387  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 207.765 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9541 0.9356 0.9356 0.9274 0.9274 0.9149 0.9149 0.8866 0.8866 0.8517 0.8517 0.7993 0.7993 0.792 0.792 0.7858 0.7858 0.4494
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       -0.90735    0.52102  -1.741 0.092197 .  
capital.l1      0.94846    0.75233   1.261 0.217470    
loans.l2       -1.33634    0.55704  -2.399 0.023091 *  
capital.l2      1.80178    0.75773   2.378 0.024222 *  
loans.l3       -0.89924    0.49514  -1.816 0.079703 .  
capital.l3      1.44138    0.72884   1.978 0.057542 .  
loans.l4       -0.03312    0.45883  -0.072 0.942954    
capital.l4      0.91182    0.66114   1.379 0.178390    
loans.l5        0.06863    0.46221   0.148 0.882987    
capital.l5      0.53824    0.62317   0.864 0.394833    
loans.l6       -1.27400    0.45537  -2.798 0.009048 ** 
capital.l6      2.10275    0.68955   3.049 0.004859 ** 
loans.l7       -0.82302    0.44028  -1.869 0.071710 .  
capital.l7      1.25193    0.56623   2.211 0.035076 *  
loans.l8       -0.14477    0.33618  -0.431 0.669909    
capital.l8      0.79919    0.40179   1.989 0.056200 .  
loans.l9       -0.93207    0.34806  -2.678 0.012070 *  
capital.l9      1.58463    0.41248   3.842 0.000614 ***
const          -0.09991    0.05867  -1.703 0.099292 .  
ten_two         0.02822    0.02460   1.147 0.260771    
ten_two_unexp   0.08393    0.09517   0.882 0.385102    
ten            -0.74263    0.49412  -1.503 0.143672    
ten_unexp       0.25589    0.49281   0.519 0.607535    
cpi             8.82081    5.16872   1.707 0.098589 .  
cpi_unexp      -4.52395    4.26880  -1.060 0.297996    
jobs          -20.75479    9.88102  -2.100 0.044497 *  
jobs_unexp     17.36237   13.62571   1.274 0.212697    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1139 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5198, Adjusted R-squared: 0.08918 
F-statistic: 1.207 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.31 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.164553   0.373091  -0.441  0.66244   
capital.l1     0.008057   0.538734   0.015  0.98817   
loans.l2      -0.809574   0.398888  -2.030  0.05166 . 
capital.l2     0.657189   0.542595   1.211  0.23560   
loans.l3      -0.367369   0.354563  -1.036  0.30871   
capital.l3     0.312557   0.521910   0.599  0.55391   
loans.l4       0.102435   0.328558   0.312  0.75745   
capital.l4     0.214679   0.473433   0.453  0.65360   
loans.l5       0.061668   0.330980   0.186  0.85349   
capital.l5     0.132681   0.446239   0.297  0.76833   
loans.l6      -0.848780   0.326084  -2.603  0.01441 * 
capital.l6     1.237682   0.493774   2.507  0.01805 * 
loans.l7      -0.496429   0.315278  -1.575  0.12620   
capital.l7     0.696843   0.405466   1.719  0.09634 . 
loans.l8      -0.103222   0.240730  -0.429  0.67125   
capital.l8     0.529289   0.287716   1.840  0.07608 . 
loans.l9      -0.608424   0.249240  -2.441  0.02098 * 
capital.l9     1.075301   0.295374   3.640  0.00105 **
const         -0.061043   0.042016  -1.453  0.15700   
ten_two        0.036453   0.017618   2.069  0.04756 * 
ten_two_unexp  0.046770   0.068153   0.686  0.49801   
ten           -0.505250   0.353835  -1.428  0.16399   
ten_unexp      0.136808   0.352897   0.388  0.70109   
cpi            3.625569   3.701238   0.980  0.33541   
cpi_unexp     -1.541628   3.056819  -0.504  0.61784   
jobs          -3.205106   7.075645  -0.453  0.65394   
jobs_unexp     6.818175   9.757164   0.699  0.49025   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08159 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5215, Adjusted R-squared: 0.09242 
F-statistic: 1.215 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.3038 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.012982 0.008875
capital 0.008875 0.006657

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.9547
capital 0.9547  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 180.694 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.04986 0.04986
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.05224    0.14651   0.357    0.723
capital.l1     0.07242    0.52120   0.139    0.890
const         -0.02205    0.05081  -0.434    0.666
ten_two        0.02230    0.02155   1.035    0.305
ten_two_unexp -0.12331    0.08188  -1.506    0.138
ten           -0.24409    0.38162  -0.640    0.525
ten_unexp      0.63610    0.41647   1.527    0.133
cpi            3.19067    4.81225   0.663    0.510
cpi_unexp     -5.20610    4.39783  -1.184    0.242
jobs           0.28083    5.31860   0.053    0.958
jobs_unexp     3.63552   10.88010   0.334    0.740


Residual standard error: 0.1268 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1227, Adjusted R-squared: -0.04278 
F-statistic: 0.7415 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6824 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.026296   0.041287  -0.637    0.527
capital.l1     0.011145   0.146876   0.076    0.940
const          0.011862   0.014318   0.828    0.411
ten_two        0.003679   0.006072   0.606    0.547
ten_two_unexp  0.020570   0.023073   0.891    0.377
ten           -0.172654   0.107543  -1.605    0.114
ten_unexp      0.097182   0.117362   0.828    0.411
cpi            0.437237   1.356117   0.322    0.748
cpi_unexp     -0.294039   1.239333  -0.237    0.813
jobs          -1.348589   1.498811  -0.900    0.372
jobs_unexp    -1.160867   3.066070  -0.379    0.706


Residual standard error: 0.03572 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1785, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02345 
F-statistic: 1.151 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3438 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans   capital
loans    0.01607 -0.001690
capital -0.00169  0.001276

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.3733
capital -0.3733  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 204.589 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9531 0.9531 0.9173 0.9173 0.9173 0.917 0.917 0.8763 0.8763 0.8736 0.8736 0.8653 0.8653 0.8634 0.8634 0.854 0.854 0.122
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.068527   0.170133  -0.403  0.69006   
capital.l1     0.175668   0.081123   2.165  0.03872 * 
loans.l2      -0.138790   0.149151  -0.931  0.35978   
capital.l2     0.006375   0.085676   0.074  0.94119   
loans.l3      -0.356079   0.124578  -2.858  0.00781 **
capital.l3     0.055928   0.073811   0.758  0.45473   
loans.l4       0.108314   0.130789   0.828  0.41434   
capital.l4    -0.066707   0.075798  -0.880  0.38606   
loans.l5       0.062942   0.118444   0.531  0.59918   
capital.l5    -0.154366   0.068571  -2.251  0.03212 * 
loans.l6       0.265363   0.125004   2.123  0.04243 * 
capital.l6     0.052410   0.072309   0.725  0.47438   
loans.l7       0.334913   0.148098   2.261  0.03141 * 
capital.l7     0.082373   0.072594   1.135  0.26579   
loans.l8       0.102186   0.117348   0.871  0.39102   
capital.l8    -0.076944   0.079642  -0.966  0.34197   
loans.l9       0.053208   0.137469   0.387  0.70154   
capital.l9     0.222066   0.078017   2.846  0.00804 **
const          0.067122   0.029808   2.252  0.03208 * 
ten_two       -0.031750   0.012885  -2.464  0.01991 * 
ten_two_unexp -0.047898   0.036515  -1.312  0.19990   
ten            0.246202   0.120049   2.051  0.04941 * 
ten_unexp     -0.102585   0.135424  -0.758  0.45486   
cpi           -3.217589   2.050636  -1.569  0.12748   
cpi_unexp      1.098773   1.755889   0.626  0.53636   
jobs           3.328587   2.362886   1.409  0.16956   
jobs_unexp    -0.392034   3.774382  -0.104  0.91799   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03502 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7921, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6058 
F-statistic:  4.25 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.0001267 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.04955    0.40727  -0.122   0.9040  
capital.l1    -0.08755    0.19419  -0.451   0.6555  
loans.l2       0.13045    0.35704   0.365   0.7175  
capital.l2    -0.25605    0.20509  -1.248   0.2219  
loans.l3       0.24282    0.29822   0.814   0.4221  
capital.l3     0.22157    0.17669   1.254   0.2199  
loans.l4      -0.07831    0.31308  -0.250   0.8043  
capital.l4    -0.06352    0.18145  -0.350   0.7288  
loans.l5      -0.59373    0.28353  -2.094   0.0451 *
capital.l5    -0.06513    0.16415  -0.397   0.6944  
loans.l6       0.30051    0.29924   1.004   0.3236  
capital.l6    -0.26610    0.17310  -1.537   0.1351  
loans.l7      -0.21265    0.35452  -0.600   0.5533  
capital.l7    -0.20914    0.17378  -1.203   0.2385  
loans.l8       0.54556    0.28091   1.942   0.0619 .
capital.l8     0.08249    0.19065   0.433   0.6685  
loans.l9      -0.11751    0.32907  -0.357   0.7236  
capital.l9    -0.16796    0.18676  -0.899   0.3759  
const          0.18876    0.07136   2.645   0.0130 *
ten_two       -0.06010    0.03085  -1.949   0.0611 .
ten_two_unexp -0.11030    0.08741  -1.262   0.2171  
ten            0.16987    0.28738   0.591   0.5590  
ten_unexp     -0.12979    0.32418  -0.400   0.6918  
cpi            1.79572    4.90884   0.366   0.7172  
cpi_unexp     -3.61268    4.20327  -0.859   0.3971  
jobs          -7.75829    5.65630  -1.372   0.1807  
jobs_unexp    15.22350    9.03516   1.685   0.1027  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08383 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5645, Adjusted R-squared: 0.174 
F-statistic: 1.446 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.1676 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0012262 0.0001971
capital 0.0001971 0.0070266

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.06714
capital 0.06714 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 58 
Log Likelihood: 286.263 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9731 0.9122 0.882 0.882 0.8783 0.8783 0.8737 0.8737 0.831 0.831 0.7218 0.7218 0.5962 0.5962
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.172906   0.151869   1.139   0.2626  
capital.l1     0.207135   0.096314   2.151   0.0385 *
loans.l2      -0.269259   0.142194  -1.894   0.0666 .
capital.l2     0.087824   0.071293   1.232   0.2262  
loans.l3       0.222490   0.164783   1.350   0.1856  
capital.l3     0.182336   0.075633   2.411   0.0213 *
loans.l4       0.020368   0.151006   0.135   0.8935  
capital.l4     0.001423   0.083765   0.017   0.9865  
loans.l5      -0.107681   0.130356  -0.826   0.4144  
capital.l5     0.112578   0.077378   1.455   0.1546  
loans.l6       0.202882   0.136151   1.490   0.1451  
capital.l6    -0.126786   0.078473  -1.616   0.1151  
loans.l7       0.040868   0.140797   0.290   0.7733  
capital.l7     0.124993   0.083538   1.496   0.1436  
const          0.003064   0.010467   0.293   0.7715  
ten_two       -0.010680   0.005366  -1.990   0.0544 .
ten_two_unexp  0.028954   0.015762   1.837   0.0747 .
ten            0.069922   0.085886   0.814   0.4211  
ten_unexp     -0.157620   0.097718  -1.613   0.1157  
cpi            0.459203   1.047600   0.438   0.6638  
cpi_unexp      1.065595   0.962414   1.107   0.2758  
jobs           1.247556   1.114143   1.120   0.2704  
jobs_unexp    -2.474031   2.184823  -1.132   0.2652  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02072 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7758, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6349 
F-statistic: 5.506 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 4.242e-06 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.1544857  0.2465870   0.626   0.5351  
capital.l1     0.0410807  0.1563841   0.263   0.7943  
loans.l2       0.5096197  0.2308790   2.207   0.0339 *
capital.l2     0.1887513  0.1157578   1.631   0.1119  
loans.l3       0.2722832  0.2675561   1.018   0.3158  
capital.l3    -0.1528961  0.1228044  -1.245   0.2214  
loans.l4       0.0007161  0.2451871   0.003   0.9977  
capital.l4    -0.1626630  0.1360080  -1.196   0.2397  
loans.l5       0.3900822  0.2116568   1.843   0.0738 .
capital.l5    -0.0092375  0.1256376  -0.074   0.9418  
loans.l6      -0.0537304  0.2210665  -0.243   0.8094  
capital.l6    -0.2894022  0.1274162  -2.271   0.0294 *
loans.l7       0.3524279  0.2286108   1.542   0.1322  
capital.l7    -0.1946703  0.1356397  -1.435   0.1601  
const         -0.0016256  0.0169949  -0.096   0.9243  
ten_two        0.0152893  0.0087131   1.755   0.0881 .
ten_two_unexp -0.0215569  0.0255925  -0.842   0.4053  
ten            0.2187914  0.1394519   1.569   0.1257  
ten_unexp     -0.2756762  0.1586635  -1.737   0.0911 .
cpi           -4.4479865  1.7009753  -2.615   0.0131 *
cpi_unexp      2.8935148  1.5626600   1.852   0.0725 .
jobs           3.1751047  1.8090197   1.755   0.0880 .
jobs_unexp    -1.5277531  3.5474698  -0.431   0.6694  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03365 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6697, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4621 
F-statistic: 3.226 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 0.0009767 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    4.295e-04 -1.135e-05
capital -1.135e-05  1.132e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.01628
capital -0.01628  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 257.397 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7216 0.6868 0.6868 0.6355 0.6355 0.6273 0.6273 0.5143
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.132713   0.148201  -0.895   0.3754  
capital.l1     0.009797   0.181774   0.054   0.9573  
loans.l2      -0.050585   0.148903  -0.340   0.7357  
capital.l2     0.226279   0.147197   1.537   0.1314  
loans.l3       0.013395   0.149449   0.090   0.9290  
capital.l3    -0.043693   0.147240  -0.297   0.7681  
loans.l4      -0.156254   0.151376  -1.032   0.3076  
capital.l4     0.265110   0.142053   1.866   0.0687 .
const          0.013603   0.017837   0.763   0.4497  
ten_two        0.006752   0.007495   0.901   0.3725  
ten_two_unexp -0.008475   0.026361  -0.321   0.7494  
ten           -0.024685   0.114627  -0.215   0.8305  
ten_unexp      0.004076   0.125491   0.032   0.9742  
cpi           -1.315183   1.537849  -0.855   0.3971  
cpi_unexp      0.359872   1.376373   0.261   0.7950  
jobs           1.098379   1.630047   0.674   0.5039  
jobs_unexp    -1.906874   3.456168  -0.552   0.5839  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03813 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1965, Adjusted R-squared: -0.09561 
F-statistic: 0.6727 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.804 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.072757   0.123693   0.588    0.559  
capital.l1    -0.073832   0.151714  -0.487    0.629  
loans.l2       0.203607   0.124279   1.638    0.108  
capital.l2    -0.067634   0.122855  -0.551    0.585  
loans.l3       0.221982   0.124735   1.780    0.082 .
capital.l3    -0.025236   0.122891  -0.205    0.838  
loans.l4       0.037621   0.126343   0.298    0.767  
capital.l4     0.114194   0.118562   0.963    0.341  
const          0.009229   0.014887   0.620    0.539  
ten_two       -0.008824   0.006256  -1.411    0.165  
ten_two_unexp -0.010919   0.022002  -0.496    0.622  
ten            0.028636   0.095671   0.299    0.766  
ten_unexp     -0.043145   0.104739  -0.412    0.682  
cpi            0.144966   1.283536   0.113    0.911  
cpi_unexp     -0.737786   1.148764  -0.642    0.524  
jobs           1.429605   1.360488   1.051    0.299  
jobs_unexp    -1.032147   2.884625  -0.358    0.722  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03182 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2672, Adjusted R-squared: 0.0007456 
F-statistic: 1.003 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.4716 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0014536 0.0002176
capital 0.0002176 0.0010126

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1793
capital 0.1793  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 145.645 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1666 0.008253
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.04587    0.13962  -0.329   0.7438  
capital.l1    -0.06958    0.11881  -0.586   0.5606  
const          0.07293    0.03252   2.242   0.0292 *
ten_two       -0.03386    0.01389  -2.437   0.0182 *
ten_two_unexp  0.02166    0.05139   0.421   0.6751  
ten           -0.11036    0.23437  -0.471   0.6397  
ten_unexp      0.11690    0.25507   0.458   0.6486  
cpi            3.10626    3.03200   1.024   0.3103  
cpi_unexp     -4.32285    2.77544  -1.558   0.1253  
jobs          -2.59923    3.21079  -0.810   0.4218  
jobs_unexp     9.22812    6.80574   1.356   0.1809  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08051 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1643, Adjusted R-squared: 0.006616 
F-statistic: 1.042 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.4225 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.06528    0.15700  -0.416    0.679
capital.l1    -0.12900    0.13359  -0.966    0.339
const          0.03034    0.03657   0.830    0.410
ten_two       -0.01433    0.01562  -0.918    0.363
ten_two_unexp  0.03838    0.05778   0.664    0.509
ten            0.05815    0.26353   0.221    0.826
ten_unexp      0.03725    0.28681   0.130    0.897
cpi            1.94170    3.40931   0.570    0.571
cpi_unexp     -2.32810    3.12082  -0.746    0.459
jobs          -1.26308    3.61034  -0.350    0.728
jobs_unexp    -2.51280    7.65266  -0.328    0.744


Residual standard error: 0.09053 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.07735,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.09673 
F-statistic: 0.4443 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.9173 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0064815 0.0006051
capital 0.0006051 0.0081949

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.08303
capital 0.08303 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 201.128 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7923 0.7883 0.7883 0.7742 0.7742  0.76  0.76 0.7573 0.7573 0.7348 0.7348 0.3237
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.360458   0.140723   2.561 0.014515 *  
capital.l1      0.056750   0.097056   0.585 0.562192    
loans.l2        0.218581   0.148998   1.467 0.150604    
capital.l2     -0.334367   0.107194  -3.119 0.003452 ** 
loans.l3       -0.139043   0.146026  -0.952 0.347024    
capital.l3      0.055726   0.121849   0.457 0.650031    
loans.l4       -0.120877   0.169087  -0.715 0.479053    
capital.l4      0.028003   0.116828   0.240 0.811853    
loans.l5        0.171796   0.145710   1.179 0.245717    
capital.l5     -0.026621   0.113433  -0.235 0.815713    
loans.l6        0.061872   0.117354   0.527 0.601103    
capital.l6      0.003100   0.100091   0.031 0.975453    
const          -0.004723   0.027578  -0.171 0.864929    
ten_two        -0.012585   0.010089  -1.247 0.219867    
ten_two_unexp   0.034186   0.031641   1.080 0.286750    
ten             0.061768   0.150523   0.410 0.683847    
ten_unexp      -0.022036   0.154238  -0.143 0.887145    
cpi            -0.805440   2.053549  -0.392 0.697088    
cpi_unexp       1.181114   1.741528   0.678 0.501751    
jobs            9.401925   2.312275   4.066 0.000232 ***
jobs_unexp    -16.730718   4.730430  -3.537 0.001086 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04476 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7181, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5697 
F-statistic:  4.84 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 1.509e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -0.321372   0.211309  -1.521  0.13657    
capital.l1    -0.472658   0.145738  -3.243  0.00246 ** 
loans.l2      -0.141558   0.223735  -0.633  0.53072    
capital.l2    -0.677884   0.160962  -4.211  0.00015 ***
loans.l3       0.170483   0.219271   0.777  0.44168    
capital.l3    -0.447613   0.182968  -2.446  0.01917 *  
loans.l4      -0.200917   0.253901  -0.791  0.43367    
capital.l4    -0.483022   0.175428  -2.753  0.00900 ** 
loans.l5       0.168287   0.218797   0.769  0.44656    
capital.l5    -0.073036   0.170330  -0.429  0.67050    
loans.l6       0.137729   0.176219   0.782  0.43930    
capital.l6    -0.269249   0.150297  -1.791  0.08119 .  
const          0.027258   0.041412   0.658  0.51436    
ten_two       -0.006685   0.015149  -0.441  0.66153    
ten_two_unexp  0.034025   0.047512   0.716  0.47829    
ten           -0.342544   0.226024  -1.516  0.13792    
ten_unexp      0.252955   0.231603   1.092  0.28162    
cpi            4.972063   3.083596   1.612  0.11515    
cpi_unexp     -4.841496   2.615068  -1.851  0.07190 .  
jobs           7.312404   3.472098   2.106  0.04186 *  
jobs_unexp     0.272647   7.103184   0.038  0.96958    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06721 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.512,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.2551 
F-statistic: 1.993 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.03306 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    2.003e-03 -9.421e-05
capital -9.421e-05  4.517e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.03132
capital -0.03132  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 279.878 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2913 0.09128
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.298016   0.133921   2.225   0.0303 *
capital.l1    -0.043886   0.105213  -0.417   0.6783  
const          0.010239   0.011531   0.888   0.3786  
ten_two        0.003805   0.004564   0.834   0.4082  
ten_two_unexp -0.011764   0.016537  -0.711   0.4800  
ten            0.119735   0.077028   1.554   0.1260  
ten_unexp     -0.102093   0.083499  -1.223   0.2269  
cpi           -0.622295   1.055216  -0.590   0.5579  
cpi_unexp      0.188251   0.942384   0.200   0.8424  
jobs           0.157073   1.043327   0.151   0.8809  
jobs_unexp    -0.090118   2.231161  -0.040   0.9679  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02636 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1656, Adjusted R-squared: 0.008131 
F-statistic: 1.052 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.4151 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.059735   0.173197   0.345   0.7315  
capital.l1    -0.098017   0.136070  -0.720   0.4745  
const          0.020133   0.014913   1.350   0.1828  
ten_two       -0.002898   0.005903  -0.491   0.6255  
ten_two_unexp  0.002029   0.021387   0.095   0.9248  
ten           -0.026360   0.099619  -0.265   0.7923  
ten_unexp      0.035446   0.107987   0.328   0.7440  
cpi           -1.435040   1.364689  -1.052   0.2978  
cpi_unexp     -1.290661   1.218766  -1.059   0.2944  
jobs           1.668813   1.349313   1.237   0.2216  
jobs_unexp    -5.159181   2.885516  -1.788   0.0795 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0341 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2637, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1248 
F-statistic: 1.898 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.06604 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans   0.0006951 0.000114
capital 0.0001140 0.001163

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1268
capital 0.1268  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 263.784 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8962 0.8962 0.8446 0.8446 0.8318 0.8318 0.8184 0.8092 0.8092 0.7926 0.7926 0.7495
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.105506   0.154219   0.684  0.49804   
capital.l1    -0.266123   0.427800  -0.622  0.53761   
loans.l2       0.262235   0.157215   1.668  0.10354   
capital.l2    -1.270406   0.413088  -3.075  0.00388 **
loans.l3       0.034672   0.155319   0.223  0.82455   
capital.l3     0.473487   0.435045   1.088  0.28329   
loans.l4      -0.084805   0.161566  -0.525  0.60271   
capital.l4     0.730080   0.354814   2.058  0.04653 * 
loans.l5      -0.116983   0.147058  -0.795  0.43127   
capital.l5     0.766450   0.368388   2.081  0.04427 * 
loans.l6       0.068814   0.175268   0.393  0.69679   
capital.l6     0.938256   0.387161   2.423  0.02025 * 
const          0.046037   0.033652   1.368  0.17933   
ten_two       -0.031944   0.011374  -2.808  0.00782 **
ten_two_unexp  0.002275   0.048035   0.047  0.96247   
ten           -0.004116   0.172424  -0.024  0.98108   
ten_unexp     -0.066862   0.190176  -0.352  0.72710   
cpi           -1.861060   2.108449  -0.883  0.38297   
cpi_unexp      1.516989   1.890298   0.803  0.42725   
jobs           0.275516   2.397186   0.115  0.90910   
jobs_unexp     1.091442   4.829753   0.226  0.82243   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05191 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6058, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3984 
F-statistic:  2.92 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.002185 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.014995   0.059710   0.251   0.8031  
capital.l1     0.127167   0.165635   0.768   0.4474  
loans.l2      -0.011604   0.060870  -0.191   0.8498  
capital.l2    -0.066171   0.159939  -0.414   0.6814  
loans.l3      -0.033251   0.060136  -0.553   0.5835  
capital.l3     0.050559   0.168440   0.300   0.7657  
loans.l4       0.132787   0.062555   2.123   0.0404 *
capital.l4     0.201285   0.137377   1.465   0.1511  
loans.l5       0.005723   0.056938   0.101   0.9205  
capital.l5    -0.065525   0.142632  -0.459   0.6486  
loans.l6      -0.090795   0.067860  -1.338   0.1889  
capital.l6     0.215584   0.149901   1.438   0.1586  
const          0.022043   0.013029   1.692   0.0989 .
ten_two       -0.005530   0.004404  -1.256   0.2169  
ten_two_unexp  0.006712   0.018598   0.361   0.7202  
ten           -0.026145   0.066759  -0.392   0.6975  
ten_unexp     -0.026114   0.073632  -0.355   0.7248  
cpi            0.467149   0.816349   0.572   0.5705  
cpi_unexp     -0.423523   0.731885  -0.579   0.5662  
jobs          -0.030967   0.928142  -0.033   0.9736  
jobs_unexp    -0.331467   1.869982  -0.177   0.8602  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0201 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4524, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1641 
F-statistic: 1.569 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.1138 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   2.695e-03 8.762e-05
capital 8.762e-05 4.040e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.08397
capital 0.08397 1.00000
Warning in cor(resids): the standard deviation is zero
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 58 
Log Likelihood: 98.697 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9345 0.9345 0.8981 0.8981 0.8687 0.8687 0.8604 0.8604 0.8434 0.8434 0.8342 0.8342 0.7843 0.02783
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.2718553  0.1497371   1.816   0.0780 .  
capital.l1    -0.0146572  0.0083151  -1.763   0.0867 .  
loans.l2      -0.0680689  0.1549566  -0.439   0.6632    
capital.l2     0.0120184  0.0087013   1.381   0.1760    
loans.l3       0.5185764  0.1505474   3.445   0.0015 ** 
capital.l3     0.0020874  0.0090793   0.230   0.8195    
loans.l4       0.3643435  0.1658660   2.197   0.0348 *  
capital.l4    -0.0142667  0.0090342  -1.579   0.1233    
loans.l5       0.1026838  0.1533215   0.670   0.5074    
capital.l5    -0.0002313  0.0097656  -0.024   0.9812    
loans.l6      -0.2028664  0.1464518  -1.385   0.1748    
capital.l6     0.0001898  0.0097335   0.020   0.9846    
loans.l7      -0.1363831  0.1411910  -0.966   0.3407    
capital.l7     0.0597955  0.0090524   6.605 1.24e-07 ***
const          0.0026777  0.0142780   0.188   0.8523    
ten_two       -0.0032893  0.0059979  -0.548   0.5869    
ten_two_unexp  0.0096040  0.0220621   0.435   0.6660    
ten            0.1010031  0.0997359   1.013   0.3182    
ten_unexp     -0.0513967  0.1081731  -0.475   0.6376    
cpi           -0.4597100  1.3412528  -0.343   0.7338    
cpi_unexp     -0.3310118  1.1651849  -0.284   0.7780    
jobs           0.9645391  1.6633067   0.580   0.5657    
jobs_unexp    -0.8449095  2.8331735  -0.298   0.7673    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02992 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared:   0.8,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.6743 
F-statistic: 6.365 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 7.635e-07 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -2.93691    2.96306  -0.991   0.3284  
capital.l1    -0.08182    0.16454  -0.497   0.6221  
loans.l2       1.39803    3.06635   0.456   0.6513  
capital.l2    -0.17213    0.17218  -1.000   0.3243  
loans.l3      -0.76437    2.97910  -0.257   0.7990  
capital.l3    -0.07747    0.17967  -0.431   0.6690  
loans.l4       0.83415    3.28223   0.254   0.8009  
capital.l4    -0.10512    0.17877  -0.588   0.5603  
loans.l5       2.03062    3.03399   0.669   0.5077  
capital.l5    -0.13881    0.19325  -0.718   0.4773  
loans.l6      -1.77392    2.89805  -0.612   0.5444  
capital.l6    -0.16179    0.19261  -0.840   0.4066  
loans.l7       0.18152    2.79395   0.065   0.9486  
capital.l7    -0.11076    0.17913  -0.618   0.5404  
const          0.18966    0.28254   0.671   0.5064  
ten_two       -0.08064    0.11869  -0.679   0.5013  
ten_two_unexp  0.06168    0.43658   0.141   0.8885  
ten            3.56665    1.97362   1.807   0.0793 .
ten_unexp     -3.53845    2.14058  -1.653   0.1073  
cpi            3.05656   26.54129   0.115   0.9090  
cpi_unexp     -7.13712   23.05718  -0.310   0.7587  
jobs          -6.57187   32.91423  -0.200   0.8429  
jobs_unexp     0.63258   56.06406   0.011   0.9911  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.5921 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1499, Adjusted R-squared: -0.3845 
F-statistic: 0.2804 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 0.9987 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans   0.0008952 0.000806
capital 0.0008060 0.350528

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.0455
capital 0.0455  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 239.557 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8387 0.8387 0.8012 0.8012 0.7826 0.7826  0.76 0.7212 0.7212 0.713 0.713 0.6003 0.6003 0.3077
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.083874   0.191742   0.437   0.6647  
capital.l1    -1.237410   0.542133  -2.282   0.0293 *
loans.l2       0.156794   0.158698   0.988   0.3306  
capital.l2     0.307066   0.543178   0.565   0.5758  
loans.l3       0.168568   0.153071   1.101   0.2790  
capital.l3     0.489789   0.517449   0.947   0.3510  
loans.l4      -0.108262   0.146529  -0.739   0.4654  
capital.l4    -1.377021   0.565789  -2.434   0.0207 *
loans.l5      -0.024088   0.147453  -0.163   0.8713  
capital.l5    -0.118063   0.660368  -0.179   0.8592  
loans.l6       0.108089   0.104807   1.031   0.3101  
capital.l6    -0.317578   0.591942  -0.537   0.5953  
loans.l7       0.054790   0.083449   0.657   0.5162  
capital.l7     0.571491   0.609625   0.937   0.3556  
const          0.032887   0.049674   0.662   0.5127  
ten_two       -0.017244   0.017684  -0.975   0.3368  
ten_two_unexp -0.028605   0.049191  -0.582   0.5650  
ten           -0.006614   0.228238  -0.029   0.9771  
ten_unexp     -0.152140   0.238895  -0.637   0.5288  
cpi           -1.243989   2.540778  -0.490   0.6277  
cpi_unexp      4.282016   2.469706   1.734   0.0926 .
jobs           3.472623   3.185278   1.090   0.2838  
jobs_unexp    -9.045047   7.457619  -1.213   0.2341  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06218 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5962, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3186 
F-statistic: 2.148 on 22 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.02383 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.0083902  0.0640820  -0.131   0.8967  
capital.l1     0.0791704  0.1811860   0.437   0.6651  
loans.l2       0.0120530  0.0530385   0.227   0.8217  
capital.l2    -0.2783515  0.1815351  -1.533   0.1350  
loans.l3      -0.0199573  0.0511577  -0.390   0.6990  
capital.l3    -0.0549259  0.1729363  -0.318   0.7528  
loans.l4       0.0051259  0.0489714   0.105   0.9173  
capital.l4     0.0350659  0.1890920   0.185   0.8541  
loans.l5       0.0271062  0.0492802   0.550   0.5861  
capital.l5     0.0065463  0.2207012   0.030   0.9765  
loans.l6       0.0353196  0.0350274   1.008   0.3209  
capital.l6     0.2654574  0.1978326   1.342   0.1891  
loans.l7      -0.0235204  0.0278893  -0.843   0.4053  
capital.l7    -0.1328977  0.2037423  -0.652   0.5189  
const         -0.0002056  0.0166014  -0.012   0.9902  
ten_two        0.0017920  0.0059101   0.303   0.7637  
ten_two_unexp -0.0077399  0.0164400  -0.471   0.6410  
ten           -0.0253517  0.0762792  -0.332   0.7418  
ten_unexp      0.0360565  0.0798410   0.452   0.6546  
cpi           -0.3240752  0.8491522  -0.382   0.7052  
cpi_unexp      0.3712917  0.8253991   0.450   0.6559  
jobs           2.1710910  1.0645500   2.039   0.0497 *
jobs_unexp    -3.7184247  2.4924067  -1.492   0.1455  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02078 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3237, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1412 
F-statistic: 0.6963 on 22 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.8103 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    3.866e-03 -3.561e-05
capital -3.561e-05  4.318e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.02756
capital -0.02756  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 58 
Log Likelihood: 9.194 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
3.131 1.843 1.308 1.308 0.9891 0.9891 0.9714 0.9685 0.9685 0.811 0.811 0.7882 0.7882 0.782
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.114600   0.140081   0.818 0.418839    
capital.l1     0.092317   0.075627   1.221 0.230363    
loans.l2       0.090789   0.132668   0.684 0.498271    
capital.l2     0.028244   0.071547   0.395 0.695420    
loans.l3       0.126625   0.132784   0.954 0.346818    
capital.l3    -0.127417   0.066663  -1.911 0.064174 .  
loans.l4      -0.226866   0.128084  -1.771 0.085231 .  
capital.l4     0.001604   0.065971   0.024 0.980738    
loans.l5      -0.051148   0.131353  -0.389 0.699344    
capital.l5     0.099003   0.059193   1.673 0.103331    
loans.l6      -0.083294   0.139151  -0.599 0.553304    
capital.l6    -0.021501   0.065445  -0.329 0.744464    
loans.l7       0.136772   0.150590   0.908 0.369961    
capital.l7     0.267844   0.070321   3.809 0.000541 ***
const         -0.018272   0.025114  -0.728 0.471714    
ten_two        0.022385   0.011412   1.961 0.057814 .  
ten_two_unexp  0.018094   0.033203   0.545 0.589228    
ten            0.093690   0.161980   0.578 0.566694    
ten_unexp     -0.219208   0.167858  -1.306 0.200101    
cpi            2.087365   2.715307   0.769 0.447204    
cpi_unexp      0.882419   2.196411   0.402 0.690307    
jobs          -4.985407   2.552546  -1.953 0.058838 .  
jobs_unexp     8.511105   4.454901   1.911 0.064288 .  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04289 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6668, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4573 
F-statistic: 3.183 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 0.001097 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1         6.2156     6.3040   0.986   0.3309  
capital.l1      -4.3657     3.4034  -1.283   0.2080  
loans.l2        -3.0544     5.9704  -0.512   0.6121  
capital.l2      -4.7330     3.2198  -1.470   0.1505  
loans.l3         1.4659     5.9757   0.245   0.8076  
capital.l3      -2.7425     3.0000  -0.914   0.3669  
loans.l4         5.7187     5.7641   0.992   0.3280  
capital.l4      -3.7749     2.9689  -1.271   0.2119  
loans.l5         4.9558     5.9112   0.838   0.4075  
capital.l5       2.2223     2.6638   0.834   0.4098  
loans.l6       -11.8565     6.2622  -1.893   0.0666 .
capital.l6      -6.3354     2.9452  -2.151   0.0385 *
loans.l7         8.6867     6.7769   1.282   0.2083  
capital.l7      -3.5415     3.1646  -1.119   0.2707  
const            0.7839     1.1302   0.694   0.4925  
ten_two          0.1384     0.5136   0.270   0.7891  
ten_two_unexp    0.5305     1.4942   0.355   0.7247  
ten              4.8057     7.2895   0.659   0.5140  
ten_unexp       -4.3896     7.5541  -0.581   0.5649  
cpi           -263.7572   122.1962  -2.158   0.0378 *
cpi_unexp      102.8804    98.8445   1.041   0.3051  
jobs            26.2415   114.8715   0.228   0.8206  
jobs_unexp     122.0317   200.4827   0.609   0.5467  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 1.93 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4369, Adjusted R-squared: 0.08299 
F-statistic: 1.234 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 0.2823 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.001840 0.000334
capital 0.000334 3.726333

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   1.000000 0.004033
capital 0.004033 1.000000
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 60 
Log Likelihood: 222.514 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8438 0.8438 0.7963 0.7963 0.7799 0.7799 0.7182 0.7182 0.663 0.0764
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.048088   0.152762  -0.315  0.75452   
capital.l1     0.076015   0.181550   0.419  0.67762   
loans.l2      -0.428376   0.144672  -2.961  0.00508 **
capital.l2     0.492256   0.158080   3.114  0.00336 **
loans.l3       0.009066   0.133952   0.068  0.94637   
capital.l3     0.234263   0.166456   1.407  0.16686   
loans.l4      -0.239051   0.132323  -1.807  0.07817 . 
capital.l4     0.210367   0.162014   1.298  0.20139   
loans.l5      -0.121588   0.135282  -0.899  0.37402   
capital.l5     0.194888   0.156203   1.248  0.21923   
const          0.020942   0.022921   0.914  0.36624   
ten_two       -0.005245   0.009428  -0.556  0.58104   
ten_two_unexp  0.003082   0.039351   0.078  0.93795   
ten            0.014285   0.174842   0.082  0.93528   
ten_unexp      0.070960   0.182381   0.389  0.69923   
cpi            0.372848   1.956418   0.191  0.84980   
cpi_unexp     -0.418459   1.834830  -0.228  0.82073   
jobs          -1.853364   2.525733  -0.734  0.46725   
jobs_unexp    13.153916   5.869514   2.241  0.03050 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05032 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4431, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1985 
F-statistic: 1.812 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.05776 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -0.127386   0.129942  -0.980  0.33267   
capital.l1     -0.202024   0.154428  -1.308  0.19809   
loans.l2       -0.179549   0.123060  -1.459  0.15217   
capital.l2      0.004768   0.134465   0.035  0.97188   
loans.l3       -0.265358   0.113941  -2.329  0.02487 * 
capital.l3     -0.035758   0.141589  -0.253  0.80188   
loans.l4        0.188862   0.112555   1.678  0.10096   
capital.l4      0.227219   0.137812   1.649  0.10684   
loans.l5       -0.095614   0.115072  -0.831  0.41084   
capital.l5      0.212267   0.132868   1.598  0.11782   
const          -0.003699   0.019497  -0.190  0.85046   
ten_two        -0.009522   0.008019  -1.187  0.24191   
ten_two_unexp   0.007741   0.033472   0.231  0.81826   
ten             0.408385   0.148723   2.746  0.00892 **
ten_unexp      -0.509252   0.155136  -3.283  0.00211 **
cpi            -1.981897   1.664154  -1.191  0.24053   
cpi_unexp       3.274757   1.560730   2.098  0.04209 * 
jobs            6.313870   2.148421   2.939  0.00539 **
jobs_unexp    -11.758946   4.992684  -2.355  0.02338 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04281 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5621, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3698 
F-statistic: 2.923 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.002235 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0025325 0.0004787
capital 0.0004787 0.0018324

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2222
capital 0.2222  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 317.243 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2031 0.06937
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.2086152  0.1306304   1.597    0.116
capital.l1    -0.1096237  0.1374751  -0.797    0.429
const         -0.0022577  0.0086858  -0.260    0.796
ten_two       -0.0001088  0.0036978  -0.029    0.977
ten_two_unexp -0.0010526  0.0136311  -0.077    0.939
ten            0.0001471  0.0660913   0.002    0.998
ten_unexp     -0.0355620  0.0710417  -0.501    0.619
cpi            1.1340916  0.8296934   1.367    0.177
cpi_unexp     -0.8601921  0.7766948  -1.108    0.273
jobs           0.0334890  0.8919164   0.038    0.970
jobs_unexp    -0.9641626  1.8112943  -0.532    0.597


Residual standard error: 0.02169 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1309, Adjusted R-squared: -0.03304 
F-statistic: 0.7985 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6305 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.013921   0.139077   0.100   0.9206  
capital.l1    -0.074864   0.146364  -0.511   0.6111  
const          0.007636   0.009247   0.826   0.4127  
ten_two        0.003330   0.003937   0.846   0.4014  
ten_two_unexp  0.004333   0.014513   0.299   0.7664  
ten            0.077582   0.070365   1.103   0.2752  
ten_unexp     -0.116122   0.075635  -1.535   0.1307  
cpi            0.582019   0.883343   0.659   0.5128  
cpi_unexp     -0.106844   0.826917  -0.129   0.8977  
jobs          -1.608184   0.949589  -1.694   0.0962 .
jobs_unexp     1.095427   1.928416   0.568   0.5724  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02309 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1534, Adjusted R-squared: -0.006391 
F-statistic:  0.96 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.4883 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    4.703e-04 -5.772e-05
capital -5.772e-05  5.331e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1153
capital -0.1153  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 36 
Log Likelihood: 129.758 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.128 1.128 0.9848 0.9848 0.9537 0.9537 0.8975 0.8975 0.8675 0.8675 0.8577 0.8577 0.8432 0.8432 0.8313 0.8313 0.8261 0.8261 0.384 0.005837
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.345734   0.289431  -1.195    0.271  
capital.l1     0.028517   0.126549   0.225    0.828  
loans.l2      -0.140899   0.355187  -0.397    0.703  
capital.l2    -0.091485   0.212546  -0.430    0.680  
loans.l3       0.138939   0.281804   0.493    0.637  
capital.l3    -0.083838   0.173617  -0.483    0.644  
loans.l4       0.410381   0.284425   1.443    0.192  
capital.l4    -0.170901   0.152319  -1.122    0.299  
loans.l5       0.446609   0.298698   1.495    0.179  
capital.l5     0.082370   0.199238   0.413    0.692  
loans.l6      -0.360474   0.276985  -1.301    0.234  
capital.l6    -0.281743   0.193096  -1.459    0.188  
loans.l7      -0.036110   0.279602  -0.129    0.901  
capital.l7     0.013022   0.217402   0.060    0.954  
loans.l8      -0.562535   0.329076  -1.709    0.131  
capital.l8    -0.257217   0.186543  -1.379    0.210  
loans.l9       0.362413   0.210869   1.719    0.129  
capital.l9     0.091414   0.185429   0.493    0.637  
loans.l10      0.001260   0.000464   2.716    0.030 *
capital.l10   -0.148206   0.159453  -0.929    0.384  
const          0.135432   0.126218   1.073    0.319  
ten_two       -0.053102   0.045827  -1.159    0.285  
ten_two_unexp -0.108752   0.143041  -0.760    0.472  
ten           -0.298426   0.331052  -0.901    0.397  
ten_unexp      0.430607   0.422213   1.020    0.342  
cpi           -7.596604   6.358984  -1.195    0.271  
cpi_unexp      3.167267   5.623413   0.563    0.591  
jobs           7.828015  11.281175   0.694    0.510  
jobs_unexp     8.406009  17.980488   0.468    0.654  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06613 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8843, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4213 
F-statistic:  1.91 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.1909 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.467738   0.693642   0.674   0.5217  
capital.l1     0.223818   0.303285   0.738   0.4845  
loans.l2       0.213270   0.851233   0.251   0.8094  
capital.l2    -0.057189   0.509382  -0.112   0.9138  
loans.l3      -0.577205   0.675364  -0.855   0.4210  
capital.l3     0.091232   0.416087   0.219   0.8327  
loans.l4      -0.494810   0.681646  -0.726   0.4914  
capital.l4    -0.823320   0.365043  -2.255   0.0587 .
loans.l5       0.189918   0.715852   0.265   0.7984  
capital.l5     0.418025   0.477489   0.875   0.4104  
loans.l6       0.588530   0.663814   0.887   0.4047  
capital.l6    -0.291768   0.462770  -0.630   0.5484  
loans.l7       0.938517   0.670087   1.401   0.2041  
capital.l7     0.167021   0.521020   0.321   0.7579  
loans.l8      -1.429264   0.788655  -1.812   0.1128  
capital.l8    -0.616801   0.447063  -1.380   0.2101  
loans.l9       0.639669   0.505364   1.266   0.2461  
capital.l9     0.581848   0.444395   1.309   0.2318  
loans.l10      0.001186   0.001112   1.067   0.3215  
capital.l10   -0.438226   0.382141  -1.147   0.2892  
const          0.016067   0.302491   0.053   0.9591  
ten_two       -0.028857   0.109827  -0.263   0.8003  
ten_two_unexp  0.021209   0.342809   0.062   0.9524  
ten            0.818195   0.793390   1.031   0.3367  
ten_unexp     -0.818176   1.011865  -0.809   0.4454  
cpi            9.198704  15.239775   0.604   0.5651  
cpi_unexp     -4.583143  13.476925  -0.340   0.7438  
jobs          16.136612  27.036168   0.597   0.5694  
jobs_unexp     7.242888  43.091566   0.168   0.8713  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1585 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8554, Adjusted R-squared: 0.277 
F-statistic: 1.479 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.3094 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.004373 0.006536
capital 0.006536 0.025114

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6237
capital 0.6237  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 286.862 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.019 1.019 0.984 0.984 0.9698 0.9698 0.9684 0.9684 0.9657 0.9657 0.9444 0.9444 0.9383 0.9375 0.9375 0.9371 0.9371 0.8715 0.8715 0.4368
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.2045909  0.1699298   1.204 0.239447    
capital.l1     0.0312550  0.1301732   0.240 0.812133    
loans.l2       0.4823446  0.1559963   3.092 0.004702 ** 
capital.l2     0.2069940  0.1245629   1.662 0.108572    
loans.l3       0.0017855  0.1553961   0.011 0.990920    
capital.l3     0.0764421  0.1298624   0.589 0.561183    
loans.l4       0.2731618  0.1661702   1.644 0.112243    
capital.l4     0.2785112  0.1359843   2.048 0.050773 .  
loans.l5      -0.1913731  0.1481810  -1.291 0.207900    
capital.l5     0.2370208  0.1506179   1.574 0.127658    
loans.l6      -0.0152427  0.1492522  -0.102 0.919439    
capital.l6    -0.0521601  0.1355724  -0.385 0.703559    
loans.l7       0.2591487  0.1574282   1.646 0.111772    
capital.l7     0.5970760  0.1620142   3.685 0.001056 ** 
loans.l8       0.0508238  0.1675733   0.303 0.764080    
capital.l8    -0.0360896  0.1354765  -0.266 0.792040    
loans.l9      -0.1922706  0.1416210  -1.358 0.186245    
capital.l9     0.5955136  0.1357161   4.388 0.000169 ***
loans.l10     -0.0001021  0.1860868  -0.001 0.999566    
capital.l10   -0.2929911  0.1402649  -2.089 0.046656 *  
const         -0.0495462  0.0161597  -3.066 0.005011 ** 
ten_two        0.0006713  0.0053053   0.127 0.900285    
ten_two_unexp -0.0037358  0.0179353  -0.208 0.836623    
ten            0.2228709  0.0925725   2.408 0.023454 *  
ten_unexp     -0.2924046  0.1079981  -2.707 0.011822 *  
cpi            2.4267251  1.2880858   1.884 0.070797 .  
cpi_unexp     -2.9518782  1.0266270  -2.875 0.007948 ** 
jobs           1.1597882  1.4225805   0.815 0.422323    
jobs_unexp    -7.0018732  2.3342681  -3.000 0.005891 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02179 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8431, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6742 
F-statistic:  4.99 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 4.745e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       3.893e-01  2.416e-01   1.611   0.1192  
capital.l1    -5.494e-02  1.850e-01  -0.297   0.7689  
loans.l2      -1.124e-03  2.218e-01  -0.005   0.9960  
capital.l2    -2.415e-01  1.771e-01  -1.364   0.1842  
loans.l3      -2.740e-01  2.209e-01  -1.240   0.2259  
capital.l3     2.542e-02  1.846e-01   0.138   0.8915  
loans.l4       8.435e-02  2.362e-01   0.357   0.7239  
capital.l4    -1.406e-01  1.933e-01  -0.727   0.4735  
loans.l5      -1.304e-01  2.106e-01  -0.619   0.5414  
capital.l5    -1.539e-01  2.141e-01  -0.719   0.4787  
loans.l6      -1.496e-01  2.122e-01  -0.705   0.4872  
capital.l6    -5.566e-03  1.927e-01  -0.029   0.9772  
loans.l7      -1.216e-01  2.238e-01  -0.544   0.5914  
capital.l7     1.016e-01  2.303e-01   0.441   0.6628  
loans.l8      -3.009e-01  2.382e-01  -1.263   0.2178  
capital.l8    -3.525e-02  1.926e-01  -0.183   0.8562  
loans.l9      -1.294e-01  2.013e-01  -0.643   0.5259  
capital.l9    -2.906e-01  1.929e-01  -1.506   0.1441  
loans.l10      6.047e-01  2.645e-01   2.286   0.0307 *
capital.l10    3.724e-03  1.994e-01   0.019   0.9852  
const          2.994e-02  2.297e-02   1.303   0.2039  
ten_two       -4.995e-05  7.542e-03  -0.007   0.9948  
ten_two_unexp  1.637e-03  2.550e-02   0.064   0.9493  
ten            6.642e-02  1.316e-01   0.505   0.6180  
ten_unexp     -5.514e-02  1.535e-01  -0.359   0.7224  
cpi           -2.305e+00  1.831e+00  -1.259   0.2193  
cpi_unexp      1.970e+00  1.459e+00   1.350   0.1886  
jobs           1.249e+00  2.022e+00   0.618   0.5420  
jobs_unexp    -2.003e+00  3.318e+00  -0.603   0.5514  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03098 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.562,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.09027 
F-statistic: 1.191 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.3282 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    4.750e-04 -5.825e-05
capital -5.825e-05  9.597e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.08627
capital -0.08627  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 113.036 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.5178 0.1229
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.172916   0.153409  -1.127    0.265
capital.l1    -0.023869   0.045532  -0.524    0.602
const          0.008477   0.026704   0.317    0.752
ten_two       -0.004947   0.011384  -0.435    0.666
ten_two_unexp -0.023191   0.042962  -0.540    0.592
ten           -0.048008   0.198153  -0.242    0.810
ten_unexp      0.143416   0.214508   0.669    0.507
cpi           -1.805602   2.531530  -0.713    0.479
cpi_unexp      0.765191   2.345725   0.326    0.746
jobs           3.265421   2.691530   1.213    0.230
jobs_unexp     0.362780   5.599206   0.065    0.949


Residual standard error: 0.06733 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1019, Adjusted R-squared: -0.06759 
F-statistic: 0.6011 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.8057 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       -0.72244    0.42110  -1.716 0.092079 .  
capital.l1     -0.46780    0.12498  -3.743 0.000449 ***
const          -0.06564    0.07330  -0.895 0.374599    
ten_two         0.03545    0.03125   1.135 0.261668    
ten_two_unexp   0.25527    0.11793   2.165 0.034940 *  
ten            -0.68656    0.54392  -1.262 0.212387    
ten_unexp       0.24903    0.58882   0.423 0.674060    
cpi            16.86378    6.94897   2.427 0.018666 *  
cpi_unexp     -16.81888    6.43894  -2.612 0.011683 *  
jobs           -2.59137    7.38817  -0.351 0.727170    
jobs_unexp     23.37991   15.36965   1.521 0.134160    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1848 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3207, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1925 
F-statistic: 2.502 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0153 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans    0.004533 -0.00295
capital -0.002950  0.03416

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans    1.000  -0.237
capital -0.237   1.000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 221.107 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.195 0.1125
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.119161   0.180110   0.662   0.5111  
capital.l1     0.098851   0.283658   0.348   0.7289  
const          0.004976   0.031237   0.159   0.8740  
ten_two        0.002267   0.012331   0.184   0.8548  
ten_two_unexp -0.049216   0.047806  -1.029   0.3079  
ten            0.403375   0.221191   1.824   0.0738 .
ten_unexp     -0.374199   0.238422  -1.569   0.1225  
cpi            3.134342   2.833782   1.106   0.2737  
cpi_unexp     -3.494310   2.619584  -1.334   0.1879  
jobs           1.438817   3.043118   0.473   0.6383  
jobs_unexp    -0.981171   6.146827  -0.160   0.8738  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07375 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1484, Adjusted R-squared: -0.01224 
F-statistic: 0.9238 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.519 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.177731   0.102686   1.731   0.0893 .  
capital.l1    -0.036621   0.161722  -0.226   0.8217    
const          0.008069   0.017809   0.453   0.6524    
ten_two        0.004798   0.007030   0.682   0.4979    
ten_two_unexp -0.051488   0.027256  -1.889   0.0644 .  
ten            0.048668   0.126108   0.386   0.7011    
ten_unexp     -0.057096   0.135931  -0.420   0.6762    
cpi            3.615011   1.615622   2.238   0.0295 *  
cpi_unexp     -6.604079   1.493501  -4.422 4.89e-05 ***
jobs          -3.067221   1.734970  -1.768   0.0828 .  
jobs_unexp     1.434982   3.504486   0.409   0.6838    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04205 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.427,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.3189 
F-statistic:  3.95 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0004667 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.005439 0.002151
capital 0.002151 0.001768

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6936
capital 0.6936  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 275.928 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1247 0.0177
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.0233385  0.1211917  -0.193  0.84803   
capital.l1     0.0426508  0.1560371   0.273  0.78566   
const          0.0166934  0.0130337   1.281  0.20584   
ten_two       -0.0007903  0.0056241  -0.141  0.88878   
ten_two_unexp -0.0062930  0.0207003  -0.304  0.76232   
ten            0.0085577  0.0964796   0.089  0.92965   
ten_unexp     -0.0191836  0.1054504  -0.182  0.85634   
cpi           -2.1115986  1.2557171  -1.682  0.09853 . 
cpi_unexp      3.4326779  1.1957055   2.871  0.00587 **
jobs           2.5548699  1.3219392   1.933  0.05863 . 
jobs_unexp    -3.2091831  2.7273596  -1.177  0.24459   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03278 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1901, Adjusted R-squared: 0.03729 
F-statistic: 1.244 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.2858 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.013399   0.107077   0.125   0.9009  
capital.l1    -0.119104   0.137864  -0.864   0.3915  
const         -0.001100   0.011516  -0.096   0.9243  
ten_two        0.005651   0.004969   1.137   0.2606  
ten_two_unexp  0.008966   0.018289   0.490   0.6260  
ten            0.159572   0.085243   1.872   0.0667 .
ten_unexp     -0.186720   0.093169  -2.004   0.0502 .
cpi            0.081350   1.109465   0.073   0.9418  
cpi_unexp      1.254823   1.056443   1.188   0.2402  
jobs          -0.817423   1.167975  -0.700   0.4871  
jobs_unexp    -0.905362   2.409707  -0.376   0.7086  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02896 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.217,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.06921 
F-statistic: 1.468 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.1774 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.075e-03 -4.394e-05
capital -4.394e-05  8.389e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.04628
capital -0.04628  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 379.454 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9772 0.9772 0.9603 0.9531 0.9531 0.9511 0.9511 0.8885 0.8885 0.8549 0.8549 0.8298 0.8298 0.8223 0.8223  0.81  0.81 0.1922
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.021929   0.182403  -0.120   0.9051  
capital.l1     0.488554   0.415343   1.176   0.2491  
loans.l2       0.072213   0.174035   0.415   0.6812  
capital.l2     0.648839   0.392921   1.651   0.1095  
loans.l3      -0.179713   0.151288  -1.188   0.2445  
capital.l3     0.303697   0.361027   0.841   0.4071  
loans.l4       0.014618   0.160508   0.091   0.9281  
capital.l4    -0.369906   0.384787  -0.961   0.3443  
loans.l5       0.176137   0.167168   1.054   0.3007  
capital.l5    -0.019668   0.379115  -0.052   0.9590  
loans.l6      -0.165715   0.137979  -1.201   0.2395  
capital.l6     0.379691   0.360164   1.054   0.3005  
loans.l7       0.011564   0.153010   0.076   0.9403  
capital.l7     0.156145   0.351607   0.444   0.6603  
loans.l8       0.107883   0.149019   0.724   0.4749  
capital.l8     0.213306   0.370256   0.576   0.5690  
loans.l9       0.104218   0.173976   0.599   0.5538  
capital.l9     0.344474   0.447325   0.770   0.4475  
const         -0.037367   0.020134  -1.856   0.0737 .
ten_two        0.012590   0.006024   2.090   0.0455 *
ten_two_unexp -0.014676   0.014583  -1.006   0.3226  
ten            0.130917   0.064629   2.026   0.0521 .
ten_unexp     -0.080120   0.070435  -1.138   0.2646  
cpi           -0.780498   0.852246  -0.916   0.3673  
cpi_unexp      0.964095   0.793336   1.215   0.2341  
jobs          -0.518545   0.987350  -0.525   0.6034  
jobs_unexp    -1.523552   2.113876  -0.721   0.4768  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01779 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6523, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3406 
F-statistic: 2.093 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.0278 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.015778   0.074686   0.211 0.834165    
capital.l1    -0.242425   0.170066  -1.425 0.164695    
loans.l2      -0.076474   0.071260  -1.073 0.292046    
capital.l2     0.351670   0.160884   2.186 0.037047 *  
loans.l3      -0.094283   0.061946  -1.522 0.138835    
capital.l3     0.385551   0.147825   2.608 0.014238 *  
loans.l4      -0.100625   0.065721  -1.531 0.136583    
capital.l4     0.405446   0.157554   2.573 0.015450 *  
loans.l5      -0.010396   0.068448  -0.152 0.880337    
capital.l5    -0.101466   0.155232  -0.654 0.518492    
loans.l6       0.093949   0.056497   1.663 0.107103    
capital.l6     0.024515   0.147472   0.166 0.869123    
loans.l7       0.064173   0.062651   1.024 0.314164    
capital.l7    -0.086624   0.143968  -0.602 0.552055    
loans.l8      -0.223699   0.061017  -3.666 0.000982 ***
capital.l8     0.338827   0.151604   2.235 0.033288 *  
loans.l9       0.053682   0.071236   0.754 0.457173    
capital.l9     0.422393   0.183161   2.306 0.028447 *  
const         -0.018994   0.008244  -2.304 0.028580 *  
ten_two        0.006300   0.002466   2.554 0.016162 *  
ten_two_unexp -0.007589   0.005971  -1.271 0.213860    
ten           -0.016425   0.026463  -0.621 0.539648    
ten_unexp      0.016168   0.028840   0.561 0.579358    
cpi            0.531986   0.348959   1.524 0.138218    
cpi_unexp     -0.030669   0.324837  -0.094 0.925430    
jobs           0.782462   0.404278   1.935 0.062739 .  
jobs_unexp    -0.343144   0.865543  -0.396 0.694675    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.007286 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7856, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5933 
F-statistic: 4.086 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.0001818 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   3.167e-04 1.313e-05
capital 1.313e-05 5.309e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1012
capital 0.1012  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 232.519 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9261 0.9261 0.9051 0.9051 0.8711 0.8711 0.8567 0.8567 0.8233 0.8233 0.8132 0.8008 0.8008 0.7037 0.7037 0.7008 0.7008 0.1715
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.4247746  0.1736791   2.446   0.0210 *
capital.l1     0.0610183  0.1141184   0.535   0.5971  
loans.l2      -0.2055793  0.1626559  -1.264   0.2167  
capital.l2    -0.0331068  0.1413207  -0.234   0.8165  
loans.l3       0.1693200  0.1243283   1.362   0.1841  
capital.l3     0.0239591  0.1189393   0.201   0.8418  
loans.l4      -0.0512558  0.0984527  -0.521   0.6067  
capital.l4    -0.0824505  0.1070318  -0.770   0.4476  
loans.l5       0.0568595  0.0934219   0.609   0.5477  
capital.l5    -0.0171725  0.1140522  -0.151   0.8814  
loans.l6       0.0433621  0.0940166   0.461   0.6482  
capital.l6    -0.0050752  0.1173884  -0.043   0.9658  
loans.l7      -0.1463112  0.1006663  -1.453   0.1572  
capital.l7     0.0125930  0.1166541   0.108   0.9148  
loans.l8       0.2194361  0.0963403   2.278   0.0306 *
capital.l8    -0.1712977  0.1121254  -1.528   0.1378  
loans.l9      -0.0775626  0.0410248  -1.891   0.0691 .
capital.l9     0.0157309  0.1087820   0.145   0.8861  
const         -0.0004416  0.0341171  -0.013   0.9898  
ten_two        0.0060754  0.0097259   0.625   0.5373  
ten_two_unexp -0.0484746  0.0343221  -1.412   0.1689  
ten            0.0032172  0.1368649   0.024   0.9814  
ten_unexp      0.0999150  0.1548994   0.645   0.5242  
cpi            2.5507432  1.8094731   1.410   0.1697  
cpi_unexp     -2.6267881  1.6832633  -1.561   0.1299  
jobs          -0.6939575  2.4150025  -0.287   0.7760  
jobs_unexp    -5.1166284  4.4394449  -1.153   0.2588  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03387 on 28 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.571,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.1727 
F-statistic: 1.433 on 26 and 28 DF,  p-value: 0.176 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.346089   0.254231  -1.361   0.1843  
capital.l1     0.082811   0.167046   0.496   0.6239  
loans.l2       0.539265   0.238095   2.265   0.0314 *
capital.l2     0.401954   0.206865   1.943   0.0621 .
loans.l3       0.169515   0.181992   0.931   0.3596  
capital.l3    -0.178056   0.174103  -1.023   0.3152  
loans.l4       0.082443   0.144115   0.572   0.5718  
capital.l4    -0.383212   0.156673  -2.446   0.0210 *
loans.l5      -0.103645   0.136751  -0.758   0.4548  
capital.l5     0.075268   0.166949   0.451   0.6556  
loans.l6      -0.067000   0.137621  -0.487   0.6302  
capital.l6     0.071443   0.171833   0.416   0.6807  
loans.l7       0.035590   0.147355   0.242   0.8109  
capital.l7     0.028904   0.170758   0.169   0.8668  
loans.l8      -0.010814   0.141023  -0.077   0.9394  
capital.l8     0.147966   0.164129   0.902   0.3750  
loans.l9      -0.093681   0.060052  -1.560   0.1300  
capital.l9    -0.055384   0.159235  -0.348   0.7306  
const          0.023732   0.049940   0.475   0.6383  
ten_two       -0.014320   0.014237  -1.006   0.3231  
ten_two_unexp  0.000132   0.050241   0.003   0.9979  
ten            0.085591   0.200343   0.427   0.6725  
ten_unexp     -0.029764   0.226742  -0.131   0.8965  
cpi            3.392043   2.648703   1.281   0.2108  
cpi_unexp      0.314860   2.463958   0.128   0.8992  
jobs          -0.406518   3.535076  -0.115   0.9093  
jobs_unexp    -4.939233   6.498451  -0.760   0.4536  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04958 on 28 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5963, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2215 
F-statistic: 1.591 on 26 and 28 DF,  p-value: 0.1156 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.147e-03 -7.518e-05
capital -7.518e-05  2.458e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.04477
capital -0.04477  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 316.85 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6857 0.6533 0.6533 0.645 0.5578 0.5578 0.3302 0.02959
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.283243   0.143556   1.973   0.0548 .
capital.l1     0.282206   0.131538   2.145   0.0375 *
loans.l2      -0.214414   0.141206  -1.518   0.1361  
capital.l2     0.151479   0.134773   1.124   0.2671  
loans.l3      -0.037123   0.145572  -0.255   0.7999  
capital.l3    -0.085117   0.143065  -0.595   0.5549  
loans.l4       0.035463   0.131655   0.269   0.7889  
capital.l4     0.119682   0.138435   0.865   0.3920  
const         -0.010468   0.010430  -1.004   0.3210  
ten_two        0.003972   0.003875   1.025   0.3109  
ten_two_unexp -0.014318   0.015642  -0.915   0.3650  
ten           -0.056836   0.071694  -0.793   0.4322  
ten_unexp      0.069912   0.075204   0.930   0.3576  
cpi            0.227863   0.964484   0.236   0.8143  
cpi_unexp     -0.127586   0.896443  -0.142   0.8875  
jobs           0.375904   1.252113   0.300   0.7654  
jobs_unexp    -5.044308   2.396060  -2.105   0.0410 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02253 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4484, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2479 
F-statistic: 2.236 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.01792 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.069946   0.128542   0.544   0.5891  
capital.l1    -0.096111   0.117781  -0.816   0.4189  
loans.l2       0.156965   0.126437   1.241   0.2210  
capital.l2     0.028040   0.120677   0.232   0.8173  
loans.l3       0.117607   0.130347   0.902   0.3718  
capital.l3    -0.156086   0.128102  -1.218   0.2295  
loans.l4       0.025963   0.117885   0.220   0.8267  
capital.l4     0.071438   0.123957   0.576   0.5673  
const          0.016844   0.009339   1.804   0.0781 .
ten_two       -0.006013   0.003470  -1.733   0.0901 .
ten_two_unexp  0.009963   0.014006   0.711   0.4806  
ten            0.014052   0.064196   0.219   0.8277  
ten_unexp     -0.001353   0.067339  -0.020   0.9841  
cpi            0.757909   0.863611   0.878   0.3849  
cpi_unexp      0.176996   0.802685   0.221   0.8265  
jobs          -1.101176   1.121157  -0.982   0.3314  
jobs_unexp    -1.613351   2.145460  -0.752   0.4561  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02017 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3624, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1305 
F-statistic: 1.563 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.1209 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   5.075e-04 6.041e-05
capital 6.041e-05 4.069e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1329
capital 0.1329  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 23 
Log Likelihood: 100.649 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8688 0.8688 0.693 0.693 0.6886 0.6886 0.6153 0.4599
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.256044   0.357550  -0.716   0.5008  
capital.l1      0.055515   0.182549   0.304   0.7713  
loans.l2       -0.900005   0.433508  -2.076   0.0832 .
capital.l2      0.192192   0.156582   1.227   0.2656  
loans.l3       -0.350570   0.451091  -0.777   0.4666  
capital.l3      0.371788   0.249099   1.493   0.1862  
loans.l4       -0.200259   0.450747  -0.444   0.6724  
capital.l4      0.032517   0.155473   0.209   0.8413  
const          -0.027857   0.098563  -0.283   0.7870  
ten_two        -0.002169   0.029820  -0.073   0.9444  
ten_two_unexp  -0.095310   0.107614  -0.886   0.4099  
ten             0.397944   0.328655   1.211   0.2715  
ten_unexp      -0.232964   0.264681  -0.880   0.4126  
cpi           -10.761278   6.671833  -1.613   0.1579  
cpi_unexp      14.850592   8.024837   1.851   0.1137  
jobs            7.615761  18.204648   0.418   0.6903  
jobs_unexp     -5.570568  14.415744  -0.386   0.7125  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03421 on 6 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5786, Adjusted R-squared: -0.5451 
F-statistic: 0.5149 on 16 and 6 DF,  p-value: 0.8648 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.90970    0.94502  -0.963    0.373
capital.l1      0.04309    0.48248   0.089    0.932
loans.l2       -0.77057    1.14577  -0.673    0.526
capital.l2      0.30093    0.41385   0.727    0.495
loans.l3       -1.19744    1.19225  -1.004    0.354
capital.l3      0.44727    0.65838   0.679    0.522
loans.l4       -0.25214    1.19134  -0.212    0.839
capital.l4      0.28377    0.41092   0.691    0.516
const           0.06537    0.26050   0.251    0.810
ten_two        -0.04046    0.07882  -0.513    0.626
ten_two_unexp  -0.09074    0.28443  -0.319    0.761
ten             0.68354    0.86864   0.787    0.461
ten_unexp      -0.17159    0.69956  -0.245    0.814
cpi            -5.14364   17.63385  -0.292    0.780
cpi_unexp      -0.09314   21.20988  -0.004    0.997
jobs          -16.87267   48.11541  -0.351    0.738
jobs_unexp     -2.60397   38.10123  -0.068    0.948


Residual standard error: 0.09042 on 6 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5836, Adjusted R-squared: -0.5266 
F-statistic: 0.5257 on 16 and 6 DF,  p-value: 0.8577 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.001170 0.001266
capital 0.001266 0.008176

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.4093
capital 0.4093  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 113.46 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1432 0.1051
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.077767   0.137390   0.566    0.574
capital.l1    -0.018830   0.053645  -0.351    0.727
const         -0.011511   0.026434  -0.435    0.665
ten_two        0.007334   0.011190   0.655    0.515
ten_two_unexp  0.035849   0.041762   0.858    0.395
ten            0.103494   0.195739   0.529    0.599
ten_unexp      0.036621   0.212725   0.172    0.864
cpi           -0.034989   2.534539  -0.014    0.989
cpi_unexp      0.605609   2.343094   0.258    0.797
jobs           2.463533   2.643801   0.932    0.356
jobs_unexp    -8.109532   5.688237  -1.426    0.160


Residual standard error: 0.06653 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1337, Adjusted R-squared: -0.02981 
F-statistic: 0.8177 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6131 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.32022    0.37833  -0.846    0.401
capital.l1    -0.11586    0.14772  -0.784    0.436
const          0.05555    0.07279   0.763    0.449
ten_two       -0.02997    0.03082  -0.973    0.335
ten_two_unexp  0.04118    0.11500   0.358    0.722
ten            0.03397    0.53901   0.063    0.950
ten_unexp     -0.11121    0.58579  -0.190    0.850
cpi            6.52555    6.97943   0.935    0.354
cpi_unexp     -5.22390    6.45224  -0.810    0.422
jobs          -0.27599    7.28031  -0.038    0.970
jobs_unexp    13.16819   15.66386   0.841    0.404


Residual standard error: 0.1832 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.07622,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.09808 
F-statistic: 0.4373 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.9213 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.004426 -0.002086
capital -0.002086  0.033564

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1711
capital -0.1711  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 185.032 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.155 0.08062
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.119987   0.138767   0.865    0.391
capital.l1    -0.068814   0.112905  -0.609    0.545
const          0.019298   0.023316   0.828    0.412
ten_two        0.007950   0.009972   0.797    0.429
ten_two_unexp  0.044731   0.039149   1.143    0.258
ten           -0.105649   0.171615  -0.616    0.541
ten_unexp      0.091606   0.187321   0.489    0.627
cpi           -0.178674   2.200745  -0.081    0.936
cpi_unexp      0.568139   1.994918   0.285    0.777
jobs          -2.665878   2.363893  -1.128    0.265
jobs_unexp     0.871958   4.831580   0.180    0.857


Residual standard error: 0.05821 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1736, Adjusted R-squared: 0.01769 
F-statistic: 1.113 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3698 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.1573224  0.1663458   0.946   0.3486  
capital.l1    -0.1944070  0.1353449  -1.436   0.1568  
const          0.0030240  0.0279501   0.108   0.9143  
ten_two       -0.0008704  0.0119536  -0.073   0.9422  
ten_two_unexp  0.0645337  0.0469303   1.375   0.1749  
ten           -0.3495537  0.2057230  -1.699   0.0952 .
ten_unexp      0.2038131  0.2245505   0.908   0.3682  
cpi            5.2974204  2.6381338   2.008   0.0498 *
cpi_unexp     -3.4304321  2.3913990  -1.434   0.1573  
jobs           0.8937379  2.8337068   0.315   0.7537  
jobs_unexp     0.2693395  5.7918354   0.047   0.9631  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06978 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2065, Adjusted R-squared: 0.05678 
F-statistic: 1.379 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.2154 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.003388 -0.001045
capital -0.001045  0.004869

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2572
capital -0.2572  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 240.023 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.339 0.339 0.3255 0.1561
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.196564   0.141186   1.392  0.17001   
capital.l1    -0.032972   0.126450  -0.261  0.79536   
loans.l2       0.081370   0.136307   0.597  0.55323   
capital.l2    -0.018364   0.081975  -0.224  0.82365   
const          0.060557   0.020509   2.953  0.00479 **
ten_two       -0.012451   0.007057  -1.764  0.08379 . 
ten_two_unexp -0.036720   0.025463  -1.442  0.15552   
ten           -0.075846   0.115463  -0.657  0.51427   
ten_unexp      0.078016   0.126938   0.615  0.54161   
cpi           -0.612756   1.435001  -0.427  0.67121   
cpi_unexp      0.567554   1.310472   0.433  0.66681   
jobs          -3.398739   1.652871  -2.056  0.04500 * 
jobs_unexp     3.174453   3.349787   0.948  0.34786   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03816 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2686, Adjusted R-squared: 0.09309 
F-statistic:  1.53 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.1447 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.079807   0.158585  -0.503   0.6170  
capital.l1     0.049299   0.142033   0.347   0.7300  
loans.l2       0.352731   0.153105   2.304   0.0254 *
capital.l2    -0.151383   0.092077  -1.644   0.1064  
const          0.029924   0.023036   1.299   0.1999  
ten_two       -0.004567   0.007927  -0.576   0.5671  
ten_two_unexp -0.007594   0.028601  -0.266   0.7917  
ten           -0.208031   0.129692  -1.604   0.1150  
ten_unexp      0.222655   0.142581   1.562   0.1247  
cpi            1.201103   1.611843   0.745   0.4597  
cpi_unexp     -3.106288   1.471968  -2.110   0.0399 *
jobs          -1.301010   1.856562  -0.701   0.4867  
jobs_unexp     1.051985   3.762597   0.280   0.7809  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04286 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2452, Adjusted R-squared: 0.06406 
F-statistic: 1.354 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.2198 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.456e-03 -7.444e-05
capital -7.444e-05  1.837e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.04551
capital -0.04551  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 36.742 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1838 0.1838
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.24236    0.30935  -0.783   0.4535  
capital.l1     -0.09686    0.13613  -0.712   0.4948  
const          -0.35421    0.23103  -1.533   0.1596  
ten_two         0.10315    0.05478   1.883   0.0924 .
ten_two_unexp  -0.17351    0.22117  -0.785   0.4529  
ten            -0.74149    0.66808  -1.110   0.2958  
ten_unexp       0.50794    0.58365   0.870   0.4068  
cpi            36.04919   15.72815   2.292   0.0476 *
cpi_unexp     -17.77852   13.91762  -1.277   0.2334  
jobs            6.67802   46.70301   0.143   0.8894  
jobs_unexp    -30.19391   39.49617  -0.764   0.4642  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08358 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6547, Adjusted R-squared: 0.271 
F-statistic: 1.706 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.2173 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.037283   0.938370   0.040    0.969
capital.l1     -0.124514   0.412943  -0.302    0.770
const           0.316081   0.700795   0.451    0.663
ten_two        -0.077708   0.166169  -0.468    0.651
ten_two_unexp   0.023868   0.670887   0.036    0.972
ten             0.001066   2.026543   0.001    1.000
ten_unexp       0.704962   1.770416   0.398    0.700
cpi           -14.134321  47.709390  -0.296    0.774
cpi_unexp     -13.391276  42.217364  -0.317    0.758
jobs          -34.823914 141.667779  -0.246    0.811
jobs_unexp     49.073341 119.806748   0.410    0.692


Residual standard error: 0.2535 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1731, Adjusted R-squared: -0.7456 
F-statistic: 0.1884 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.9923 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans    0.006985 -0.00441
capital -0.004410  0.06427

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2081
capital -0.2081  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 194.498 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2002 0.1499
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.218409   0.151364   1.443    0.155
capital.l1     0.178300   0.198999   0.896    0.374
const         -0.007301   0.029138  -0.251    0.803
ten_two        0.005871   0.012105   0.485    0.630
ten_two_unexp -0.029533   0.046144  -0.640    0.525
ten           -0.049149   0.216308  -0.227    0.821
ten_unexp      0.139996   0.237087   0.590    0.557
cpi            0.993542   2.763732   0.359    0.721
cpi_unexp     -2.326141   2.472164  -0.941    0.351
jobs           1.888498   2.993373   0.631    0.531
jobs_unexp     0.855600   5.981275   0.143    0.887


Residual standard error: 0.07185 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1388, Adjusted R-squared: -0.02372 
F-statistic: 0.854 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.5803 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       -0.007007   0.106107  -0.066 0.947595    
capital.l1      0.131686   0.139500   0.944 0.349459    
const           0.001445   0.020426   0.071 0.943880    
ten_two         0.009538   0.008486   1.124 0.266099    
ten_two_unexp   0.017797   0.032347   0.550 0.584508    
ten             0.134041   0.151634   0.884 0.380699    
ten_unexp      -0.240054   0.166200  -1.444 0.154521    
cpi            -4.371241   1.937402  -2.256 0.028206 *  
cpi_unexp       4.418371   1.733010   2.550 0.013716 *  
jobs            7.484428   2.098382   3.567 0.000776 ***
jobs_unexp    -11.420947   4.192929  -2.724 0.008719 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05037 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2838, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1487 
F-statistic: 2.101 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.04066 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.005162 -0.001279
capital -0.001279  0.002537

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.3535
capital -0.3535  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 303.234 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1631 0.01534
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.049935   0.129636   0.385   0.7016  
capital.l1     0.087187   0.139265   0.626   0.5340  
const         -0.001850   0.010808  -0.171   0.8647  
ten_two        0.002025   0.004524   0.448   0.6563  
ten_two_unexp  0.035712   0.016496   2.165   0.0349 *
ten           -0.091514   0.077382  -1.183   0.2422  
ten_unexp      0.028141   0.083028   0.339   0.7360  
cpi            1.841688   1.007546   1.828   0.0732 .
cpi_unexp     -1.158928   0.941718  -1.231   0.2239  
jobs          -0.521631   1.078560  -0.484   0.6306  
jobs_unexp     1.244610   2.218019   0.561   0.5771  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02633 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1792, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02435 
F-statistic: 1.157 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3399 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -8.452e-02  1.161e-01  -0.728 0.469820    
capital.l1    -1.977e-01  1.247e-01  -1.585 0.118974    
const          2.166e-02  9.679e-03   2.238 0.029443 *  
ten_two       -3.035e-05  4.052e-03  -0.007 0.994053    
ten_two_unexp -9.739e-03  1.477e-02  -0.659 0.512610    
ten            3.378e-02  6.930e-02   0.487 0.627944    
ten_unexp     -5.077e-02  7.436e-02  -0.683 0.497704    
cpi            2.787e-01  9.023e-01   0.309 0.758632    
cpi_unexp      3.358e-01  8.434e-01   0.398 0.692095    
jobs          -3.593e+00  9.659e-01  -3.720 0.000483 ***
jobs_unexp     3.398e+00  1.986e+00   1.711 0.093016 .  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02358 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2694, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1315 
F-statistic: 1.954 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.05782 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    6.933e-04 -4.797e-05
capital -4.797e-05  5.561e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.07726
capital -0.07726  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 248.497 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9738 0.9738 0.928 0.928 0.922 0.922 0.907 0.907 0.9059 0.9059 0.9058 0.9058 0.9009 0.9009 0.8908 0.8908 0.8536 0.8536 0.7359 0.3403
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.02108    0.16991   0.124   0.9022  
capital.l1     0.46808    0.26516   1.765   0.0893 .
loans.l2      -0.19385    0.14113  -1.374   0.1813  
capital.l2     0.33278    0.23522   1.415   0.1690  
loans.l3      -0.07847    0.16924  -0.464   0.6468  
capital.l3     0.42964    0.21174   2.029   0.0528 .
loans.l4       0.09581    0.16556   0.579   0.5678  
capital.l4     0.10517    0.20520   0.513   0.6126  
loans.l5       0.10510    0.15611   0.673   0.5067  
capital.l5     0.45297    0.20604   2.198   0.0370 *
loans.l6      -0.20651    0.14407  -1.433   0.1637  
capital.l6     0.17766    0.21543   0.825   0.4171  
loans.l7      -0.09325    0.15265  -0.611   0.5466  
capital.l7     0.20629    0.20937   0.985   0.3335  
loans.l8       0.11836    0.14891   0.795   0.4339  
capital.l8     0.10074    0.20248   0.498   0.6230  
loans.l9      -0.20836    0.14446  -1.442   0.1612  
capital.l9    -0.48183    0.19306  -2.496   0.0192 *
loans.l10      0.19294    0.16092   1.199   0.2414  
capital.l10   -0.15956    0.21419  -0.745   0.4630  
const          0.01094    0.02417   0.453   0.6546  
ten_two       -0.02120    0.01146  -1.850   0.0757 .
ten_two_unexp  0.06093    0.03734   1.632   0.1148  
ten            0.09821    0.15336   0.640   0.5275  
ten_unexp     -0.17444    0.15574  -1.120   0.2729  
cpi            2.39415    1.96898   1.216   0.2349  
cpi_unexp     -1.29474    2.04151  -0.634   0.5315  
jobs           0.22124    2.13840   0.103   0.9184  
jobs_unexp     0.82698    4.77596   0.173   0.8639  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04209 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6423, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2571 
F-statistic: 1.667 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.09693 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.164784   0.130330   1.264   0.2173  
capital.l1     0.266530   0.203397   1.310   0.2015  
loans.l2      -0.077491   0.108255  -0.716   0.4805  
capital.l2    -0.334364   0.180430  -1.853   0.0752 .
loans.l3      -0.142755   0.129822  -1.100   0.2816  
capital.l3    -0.063983   0.162419  -0.394   0.6968  
loans.l4       0.127175   0.126999   1.001   0.3259  
capital.l4    -0.197541   0.157402  -1.255   0.2206  
loans.l5      -0.094114   0.119751  -0.786   0.4390  
capital.l5    -0.127654   0.158046  -0.808   0.4266  
loans.l6       0.072631   0.110515   0.657   0.5168  
capital.l6     0.049308   0.165251   0.298   0.7678  
loans.l7       0.007460   0.117092   0.064   0.9497  
capital.l7    -0.237171   0.160600  -1.477   0.1517  
loans.l8       0.102329   0.114224   0.896   0.3785  
capital.l8     0.051739   0.155321   0.333   0.7417  
loans.l9      -0.216649   0.110813  -1.955   0.0614 .
capital.l9    -0.383009   0.148089  -2.586   0.0157 *
loans.l10      0.027084   0.123438   0.219   0.8280  
capital.l10    0.211873   0.164303   1.290   0.2086  
const          0.009501   0.018543   0.512   0.6127  
ten_two        0.015679   0.008790   1.784   0.0861 .
ten_two_unexp -0.025163   0.028643  -0.879   0.3877  
ten            0.103014   0.117636   0.876   0.3892  
ten_unexp     -0.071301   0.119461  -0.597   0.5558  
cpi           -1.718713   1.510352  -1.138   0.2655  
cpi_unexp     -0.639673   1.565987  -0.408   0.6863  
jobs           0.945511   1.640309   0.576   0.5693  
jobs_unexp    -6.353999   3.663518  -1.734   0.0947 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03229 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5721, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1113 
F-statistic: 1.242 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.291 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0017719 -0.0001472
capital -0.0001472  0.0010426

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1083
capital -0.1083  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 193.396 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9198 0.8993 0.8993 0.8845 0.8474 0.8474 0.8278 0.8278 0.7885 0.7885 0.7411 0.7411
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.2631793  0.2232499   1.179   0.2458   
capital.l1    -0.2218605  0.2428846  -0.913   0.3668   
loans.l2       0.3129330  0.2121576   1.475   0.1484   
capital.l2    -0.4747306  0.2470744  -1.921   0.0622 . 
loans.l3       0.0973881  0.2259817   0.431   0.6689   
capital.l3    -0.0448928  0.2892839  -0.155   0.8775   
loans.l4      -0.3117668  0.2132690  -1.462   0.1520   
capital.l4     0.7704904  0.2490736   3.093   0.0037 **
loans.l5       0.1916777  0.2449026   0.783   0.4387   
capital.l5    -0.2358502  0.2628985  -0.897   0.3753   
loans.l6      -0.4735043  0.2145108  -2.207   0.0334 * 
capital.l6     0.7000923  0.2597237   2.696   0.0104 * 
const         -0.0003381  0.0578219  -0.006   0.9954   
ten_two        0.0089526  0.0169804   0.527   0.6011   
ten_two_unexp  0.0130184  0.0543849   0.239   0.8121   
ten            0.2131149  0.2670897   0.798   0.4299   
ten_unexp     -0.1939430  0.2921069  -0.664   0.5107   
cpi           -0.8799810  3.5296221  -0.249   0.8045   
cpi_unexp      1.6025025  3.3816445   0.474   0.6383   
jobs           0.9541516  5.9261008   0.161   0.8729   
jobs_unexp    -5.9007098  8.7326435  -0.676   0.5033   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07479 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5322, Adjusted R-squared: 0.286 
F-statistic: 2.161 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.02007 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       1.767e-01  1.807e-01   0.978  0.33430   
capital.l1    -3.664e-01  1.966e-01  -1.864  0.07006 . 
loans.l2       5.195e-01  1.717e-01   3.026  0.00443 **
capital.l2    -6.729e-01  2.000e-01  -3.365  0.00176 **
loans.l3       3.282e-01  1.829e-01   1.795  0.08067 . 
capital.l3    -3.357e-01  2.341e-01  -1.434  0.15972   
loans.l4      -1.069e-01  1.726e-01  -0.619  0.53954   
capital.l4     4.637e-01  2.016e-01   2.301  0.02700 * 
loans.l5       7.644e-04  1.982e-01   0.004  0.99694   
capital.l5     6.949e-02  2.128e-01   0.327  0.74576   
loans.l6      -1.872e-01  1.736e-01  -1.078  0.28780   
capital.l6     5.103e-01  2.102e-01   2.428  0.02004 * 
const          4.220e-02  4.680e-02   0.902  0.37287   
ten_two       -9.266e-03  1.374e-02  -0.674  0.50423   
ten_two_unexp -4.816e-02  4.401e-02  -1.094  0.28079   
ten           -1.751e-01  2.162e-01  -0.810  0.42282   
ten_unexp      2.485e-01  2.364e-01   1.051  0.29974   
cpi           -8.346e-01  2.857e+00  -0.292  0.77174   
cpi_unexp     -3.277e+00  2.737e+00  -1.197  0.23860   
jobs          -3.264e+00  4.796e+00  -0.681  0.50022   
jobs_unexp    -1.094e+01  7.067e+00  -1.547  0.13008   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06053 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6437, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4562 
F-statistic: 3.433 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.0005245 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.005594 0.002957
capital 0.002957 0.003664

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6532
capital 0.6532  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 57 
Log Likelihood: 279.003 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9297 0.9265 0.9265 0.9058 0.9058 0.9058 0.9058 0.8906 0.8563 0.8563 0.851 0.851 0.8301 0.8301 0.3557 0.3557
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.052298   0.193646   0.270  0.78884   
capital.l1    -0.244967   0.263571  -0.929  0.35963   
loans.l2      -0.270105   0.180909  -1.493  0.14522   
capital.l2    -0.273175   0.237634  -1.150  0.25884   
loans.l3      -0.249172   0.171553  -1.452  0.15611   
capital.l3    -0.634282   0.224812  -2.821  0.00815 **
loans.l4       0.128859   0.179745   0.717  0.47864   
capital.l4    -0.185066   0.260570  -0.710  0.48270   
loans.l5      -0.094638   0.175075  -0.541  0.59255   
capital.l5    -0.433330   0.240695  -1.800  0.08124 . 
loans.l6       0.239006   0.170161   1.405  0.16978   
capital.l6    -0.511961   0.236071  -2.169  0.03765 * 
loans.l7      -0.046317   0.170797  -0.271  0.78800   
capital.l7     0.055554   0.251575   0.221  0.82663   
loans.l8       0.126622   0.171817   0.737  0.46652   
capital.l8    -0.142222   0.240309  -0.592  0.55812   
const          0.045132   0.023735   1.902  0.06627 . 
ten_two        0.009170   0.007572   1.211  0.23477   
ten_two_unexp  0.049311   0.027663   1.783  0.08414 . 
ten            0.023191   0.136717   0.170  0.86637   
ten_unexp     -0.109530   0.143760  -0.762  0.45170   
cpi           -1.337886   1.656396  -0.808  0.42522   
cpi_unexp      0.511950   1.593377   0.321  0.75007   
jobs           2.050143   1.704098   1.203  0.23778   
jobs_unexp     0.002961   4.065450   0.001  0.99942   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03453 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4459, Adjusted R-squared: 0.03025 
F-statistic: 1.073 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.4204 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.0445563  0.1271248   0.350  0.72827   
capital.l1    -0.1831103  0.1730291  -1.058  0.29786   
loans.l2       0.0323608  0.1187632   0.272  0.78700   
capital.l2     0.0981588  0.1560019   0.629  0.53367   
loans.l3       0.0476675  0.1126213   0.423  0.67494   
capital.l3    -0.0493010  0.1475850  -0.334  0.74052   
loans.l4       0.0786415  0.1179995   0.666  0.50990   
capital.l4     0.2853238  0.1710590   1.668  0.10508   
loans.l5      -0.0558331  0.1149333  -0.486  0.63043   
capital.l5     0.0603248  0.1580118   0.382  0.70515   
loans.l6      -0.0554661  0.1117078  -0.497  0.62292   
capital.l6    -0.3424725  0.1549764  -2.210  0.03439 * 
loans.l7       0.2030154  0.1121251   1.811  0.07960 . 
capital.l7    -0.1382220  0.1651544  -0.837  0.40884   
loans.l8      -0.3151866  0.1127944  -2.794  0.00871 **
capital.l8     0.1790454  0.1577585   1.135  0.26483   
const          0.0225758  0.0155814   1.449  0.15710   
ten_two       -0.0001841  0.0049709  -0.037  0.97068   
ten_two_unexp  0.0125972  0.0181602   0.694  0.49289   
ten            0.0359782  0.0897524   0.401  0.69119   
ten_unexp     -0.1236472  0.0943757  -1.310  0.19947   
cpi           -0.5502833  1.0873926  -0.506  0.61628   
cpi_unexp      0.0814414  1.0460221   0.078  0.93843   
jobs          -0.4686081  1.1187083  -0.419  0.67810   
jobs_unexp     2.1105924  2.6688911   0.791  0.43488   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02267 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6431, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3754 
F-statistic: 2.402 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.0106 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.192e-03 -5.556e-05
capital -5.556e-05  5.138e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.07099
capital -0.07099  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 139.245 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1538 0.04199
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.15041    0.01353  11.113 7.15e-15 ***
capital.l1    -0.23818    0.10797  -2.206   0.0322 *  
const          0.04954    0.03138   1.579   0.1209    
ten_two        0.02228    0.01272   1.751   0.0863 .  
ten_two_unexp -0.08020    0.04879  -1.644   0.1068    
ten           -0.15821    0.22611  -0.700   0.4875    
ten_unexp      0.19668    0.24154   0.814   0.4195    
cpi            0.77299    2.87914   0.268   0.7895    
cpi_unexp     -0.77094    2.67071  -0.289   0.7741    
jobs          -3.24188    3.14391  -1.031   0.3076    
jobs_unexp     8.74632    6.50028   1.346   0.1848    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07462 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7665, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7179 
F-statistic: 15.76 on 10 and 48 DF,  p-value: 5.104e-12 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.002712   0.016850  -0.161    0.873
capital.l1     -0.038631   0.134411  -0.287    0.775
const           0.004695   0.039060   0.120    0.905
ten_two         0.022278   0.015841   1.406    0.166
ten_two_unexp  -0.041549   0.060745  -0.684    0.497
ten            -0.155110   0.281497  -0.551    0.584
ten_unexp       0.068882   0.300701   0.229    0.820
cpi             0.754214   3.584374   0.210    0.834
cpi_unexp      -5.388082   3.324880  -1.621    0.112
jobs            0.788785   3.913989   0.202    0.841
jobs_unexp    -10.393322   8.092480  -1.284    0.205


Residual standard error: 0.0929 on 48 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared:  0.28,  Adjusted R-squared:  0.13 
F-statistic: 1.867 on 10 and 48 DF,  p-value: 0.07384 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.005568 0.001372
capital 0.001372 0.008630

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1979
capital 0.1979  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 48 
Log Likelihood: 133.821 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9648 0.9648 0.9623 0.9623 0.949 0.949 0.9348 0.9348 0.9298 0.9298 0.9156 0.9156 0.9002 0.9002 0.8811 0.8811 0.8634 0.8426 0.8426 0.6359
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.402609   0.200637   2.007   0.0592 .
capital.l1     0.007303   0.059153   0.123   0.9030  
loans.l2      -0.255020   0.243524  -1.047   0.3081  
capital.l2     0.042034   0.056193   0.748   0.4636  
loans.l3       0.208003   0.193885   1.073   0.2968  
capital.l3     0.017170   0.053076   0.324   0.7498  
loans.l4      -0.234659   0.206164  -1.138   0.2692  
capital.l4     0.058168   0.052234   1.114   0.2793  
loans.l5       0.080729   0.185107   0.436   0.6677  
capital.l5     0.067648   0.055789   1.213   0.2402  
loans.l6       0.019768   0.188796   0.105   0.9177  
capital.l6     0.013212   0.052162   0.253   0.8028  
loans.l7      -0.050429   0.152036  -0.332   0.7438  
capital.l7     0.003301   0.055575   0.059   0.9533  
loans.l8       0.097308   0.150232   0.648   0.5249  
capital.l8     0.047461   0.052972   0.896   0.3815  
loans.l9      -0.067631   0.141608  -0.478   0.6384  
capital.l9    -0.043369   0.052141  -0.832   0.4159  
loans.l10      0.205161   0.098099   2.091   0.0502 .
capital.l10   -0.121164   0.109495  -1.107   0.2823  
const          0.023116   0.035657   0.648   0.5246  
ten_two       -0.014388   0.015642  -0.920   0.3692  
ten_two_unexp -0.011038   0.053086  -0.208   0.8375  
ten           -0.249214   0.242518  -1.028   0.3170  
ten_unexp      0.392270   0.274110   1.431   0.1687  
cpi            0.573686   2.947666   0.195   0.8478  
cpi_unexp     -1.553598   2.522358  -0.616   0.5452  
jobs          -4.469024   3.531015  -1.266   0.2209  
jobs_unexp     2.154230   6.371318   0.338   0.7390  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05442 on 19 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8548, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6409 
F-statistic: 3.995 on 28 and 19 DF,  p-value: 0.001354 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.873176   0.655578   1.332   0.1986  
capital.l1     -0.355114   0.193282  -1.837   0.0819 .
loans.l2        0.425846   0.795712   0.535   0.5987  
capital.l2     -0.117398   0.183612  -0.639   0.5302  
loans.l3        1.228562   0.633517   1.939   0.0675 .
capital.l3     -0.229300   0.173424  -1.322   0.2018  
loans.l4        1.281689   0.673640   1.903   0.0724 .
capital.l4     -0.154862   0.170673  -0.907   0.3756  
loans.l5       -0.235997   0.604835  -0.390   0.7007  
capital.l5     -0.205400   0.182291  -1.127   0.2739  
loans.l6        0.597035   0.616890   0.968   0.3453  
capital.l6      0.027801   0.170439   0.163   0.8722  
loans.l7       -0.272181   0.496775  -0.548   0.5901  
capital.l7      0.008680   0.181591   0.048   0.9624  
loans.l8        0.464199   0.490880   0.946   0.3562  
capital.l8     -0.004048   0.173085  -0.023   0.9816  
loans.l9       -1.049115   0.462702  -2.267   0.0352 *
capital.l9     -0.173014   0.170369  -1.016   0.3226  
loans.l10      -0.468046   0.320538  -1.460   0.1606  
capital.l10    -0.311053   0.357773  -0.869   0.3955  
const           0.191874   0.116509   1.647   0.1160  
ten_two        -0.078343   0.051110  -1.533   0.1418  
ten_two_unexp   0.365889   0.173457   2.109   0.0484 *
ten             0.508121   0.792425   0.641   0.5290  
ten_unexp      -0.893389   0.895653  -0.997   0.3311  
cpi           -24.140130   9.631468  -2.506   0.0214 *
cpi_unexp      14.995476   8.241777   1.819   0.0846 .
jobs           19.497392  11.537553   1.690   0.1074  
jobs_unexp     -1.223407  20.818212  -0.059   0.9538  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1778 on 19 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5909, Adjusted R-squared: -0.01189 
F-statistic: 0.9803 on 28 and 19 DF,  p-value: 0.5295 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.002962 0.003282
capital 0.003282 0.031621

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3391
capital 0.3391  1.0000
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 32 
Log Likelihood: 169.408 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.095 1.095 1.017 1.017 0.9969 0.9969 0.9791 0.9791 0.9789 0.9789 0.9549 0.9549 0.9269 0.9232 0.9232 0.8884 0.8884 0.8541 0.7842 0.5061
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       4.859e-01  7.084e-01   0.686    0.542
capital.l1    -7.542e-01  2.169e+00  -0.348    0.751
loans.l2      -1.505e-01  7.007e-01  -0.215    0.844
capital.l2     4.071e+00  3.598e+00   1.132    0.340
loans.l3      -4.072e-01  1.200e+00  -0.339    0.757
capital.l3    -3.345e-01  2.610e+00  -0.128    0.906
loans.l4       6.065e-02  9.877e-01   0.061    0.955
capital.l4    -1.598e+00  4.773e+00  -0.335    0.760
loans.l5      -3.160e-01  1.164e+00  -0.271    0.804
capital.l5     3.386e+00  4.668e+00   0.725    0.521
loans.l6       5.278e-01  8.699e-01   0.607    0.587
capital.l6     1.758e+00  2.442e+00   0.720    0.524
loans.l7      -1.625e-04  5.720e-01   0.000    1.000
capital.l7    -1.859e+00  3.590e+00  -0.518    0.640
loans.l8       6.197e-02  9.112e-01   0.068    0.950
capital.l8     2.088e+00  3.105e+00   0.673    0.549
loans.l9       9.124e-01  1.110e+00   0.822    0.471
capital.l9     1.247e+00  3.767e+00   0.331    0.762
loans.l10     -2.030e-01  2.497e-01  -0.813    0.476
capital.l10   -3.232e+00  3.267e+00  -0.989    0.396
const         -3.720e-01  4.223e-01  -0.881    0.443
ten_two        1.053e-01  1.298e-01   0.812    0.476
ten_two_unexp -2.245e-01  1.102e+00  -0.204    0.852
ten           -7.806e-01  1.722e+00  -0.453    0.681
ten_unexp      9.527e-01  2.166e+00   0.440    0.690
cpi            7.188e+00  2.765e+01   0.260    0.812
cpi_unexp      9.468e+00  3.093e+01   0.306    0.780
jobs           2.890e+01  5.171e+01   0.559    0.615
jobs_unexp    -3.464e+01  6.137e+01  -0.564    0.612


Residual standard error: 0.1622 on 3 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6984, Adjusted R-squared: -2.116 
F-statistic: 0.2481 on 28 and 3 DF,  p-value: 0.9832 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.03908    0.09439  -0.414   0.7067  
capital.l1    -0.02699    0.28902  -0.093   0.9315  
loans.l2      -0.01602    0.09337  -0.172   0.8747  
capital.l2    -0.06252    0.47940  -0.130   0.9045  
loans.l3       0.19640    0.15988   1.228   0.3069  
capital.l3    -0.14322    0.34784  -0.412   0.7082  
loans.l4       0.01828    0.13162   0.139   0.8984  
capital.l4     0.02508    0.63606   0.039   0.9710  
loans.l5       0.07744    0.15515   0.499   0.6520  
capital.l5    -0.39215    0.62200  -0.630   0.5731  
loans.l6      -0.17732    0.11592  -1.530   0.2236  
capital.l6    -0.61062    0.32543  -1.876   0.1573  
loans.l7      -0.14911    0.07622  -1.956   0.1454  
capital.l7    -0.30112    0.47839  -0.629   0.5737  
loans.l8      -0.10966    0.12142  -0.903   0.4330  
capital.l8     0.24713    0.41371   0.597   0.5923  
loans.l9      -0.14479    0.14789  -0.979   0.3998  
capital.l9     0.16584    0.50204   0.330   0.7629  
loans.l10      0.08383    0.03327   2.519   0.0862 .
capital.l10    0.25940    0.43536   0.596   0.5932  
const          0.11616    0.05627   2.064   0.1309  
ten_two       -0.04676    0.01729  -2.704   0.0735 .
ten_two_unexp  0.09149    0.14686   0.623   0.5774  
ten           -0.05774    0.22953  -0.252   0.8176  
ten_unexp     -0.03770    0.28860  -0.131   0.9043  
cpi           -4.13391    3.68512  -1.122   0.3436  
cpi_unexp     -4.32673    4.12145  -1.050   0.3709  
jobs           0.42785    6.89002   0.062   0.9544  
jobs_unexp     8.18694    8.17792   1.001   0.3905  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02161 on 3 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9574, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5594 
F-statistic: 2.406 on 28 and 3 DF,  p-value: 0.2569 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans    capital
loans    0.026310 -0.0015671
capital -0.001567  0.0004672

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans    1.000  -0.447
capital -0.447   1.000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 244.364 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9577 0.9577 0.9476 0.9476 0.9148 0.9148 0.9116 0.9116 0.8936 0.8936 0.872 0.872 0.8703 0.8296 0.6888 0.6888 0.2409 0.2409
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.082638   0.144744   0.571  0.57245   
capital.l1    -0.039507   0.122372  -0.323  0.74913   
loans.l2      -0.206457   0.138046  -1.496  0.14557   
capital.l2     0.021795   0.110498   0.197  0.84501   
loans.l3      -0.223037   0.125453  -1.778  0.08592 . 
capital.l3    -0.037494   0.109572  -0.342  0.73468   
loans.l4      -0.038510   0.127968  -0.301  0.76561   
capital.l4     0.048597   0.104456   0.465  0.64523   
loans.l5      -0.046413   0.125033  -0.371  0.71318   
capital.l5    -0.016469   0.112260  -0.147  0.88438   
loans.l6      -0.185194   0.134818  -1.374  0.18007   
capital.l6    -0.115761   0.103509  -1.118  0.27259   
loans.l7      -0.363813   0.148982  -2.442  0.02094 * 
capital.l7     0.348109   0.105317   3.305  0.00253 **
loans.l8      -0.092873   0.157815  -0.588  0.56076   
capital.l8     0.293283   0.120235   2.439  0.02107 * 
loans.l9      -0.113133   0.147522  -0.767  0.44935   
capital.l9     0.226866   0.121798   1.863  0.07267 . 
const          0.033522   0.018305   1.831  0.07735 . 
ten_two       -0.016708   0.008457  -1.976  0.05778 . 
ten_two_unexp -0.047007   0.023986  -1.960  0.05970 . 
ten           -0.372230   0.125483  -2.966  0.00598 **
ten_unexp      0.392156   0.140016   2.801  0.00898 **
cpi            2.570277   1.610178   1.596  0.12127   
cpi_unexp     -1.156988   1.342624  -0.862  0.39590   
jobs          -3.390403   1.818079  -1.865  0.07235 . 
jobs_unexp     5.734013   3.207264   1.788  0.08426 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03178 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.733,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.4936 
F-statistic: 3.062 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.002069 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.305666   0.219087  -1.395   0.1736  
capital.l1    -0.222169   0.185223  -1.199   0.2401  
loans.l2      -0.104273   0.208948  -0.499   0.6215  
capital.l2    -0.099934   0.167251  -0.598   0.5548  
loans.l3      -0.253774   0.189888  -1.336   0.1918  
capital.l3    -0.081166   0.165850  -0.489   0.6282  
loans.l4       0.088644   0.193694   0.458   0.6506  
capital.l4    -0.004969   0.158106  -0.031   0.9751  
loans.l5       0.263592   0.189252   1.393   0.1743  
capital.l5    -0.104292   0.169918  -0.614   0.5441  
loans.l6      -0.309949   0.204062  -1.519   0.1396  
capital.l6     0.042757   0.156673   0.273   0.7869  
loans.l7       0.072269   0.225501   0.320   0.7509  
capital.l7     0.183445   0.159409   1.151   0.2592  
loans.l8       0.075368   0.238871   0.316   0.7546  
capital.l8     0.196786   0.181989   1.081   0.2885  
loans.l9      -0.130740   0.223291  -0.586   0.5627  
capital.l9     0.323307   0.184355   1.754   0.0900 .
const          0.026646   0.027707   0.962   0.3441  
ten_two       -0.022061   0.012800  -1.723   0.0954 .
ten_two_unexp -0.002308   0.036306  -0.064   0.9498  
ten           -0.103591   0.189933  -0.545   0.5896  
ten_unexp      0.106411   0.211930   0.502   0.6194  
cpi            1.799854   2.437187   0.738   0.4661  
cpi_unexp      1.229060   2.032213   0.605   0.5500  
jobs          -1.045690   2.751867  -0.380   0.7067  
jobs_unexp    -4.556814   4.854556  -0.939   0.3557  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0481 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4492, Adjusted R-squared: -0.04461 
F-statistic: 0.9097 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.5942 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0010100 -0.0005145
capital -0.0005145  0.0023138

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.3366
capital -0.3366  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 215.456 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.314 0.04463
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.038888   0.171900   0.226   0.8219  
capital.l1     0.013375   0.131876   0.101   0.9196  
const          0.028074   0.019636   1.430   0.1587  
ten_two       -0.012295   0.008362  -1.470   0.1474  
ten_two_unexp -0.048842   0.031182  -1.566   0.1232  
ten           -0.075057   0.140679  -0.534   0.5959  
ten_unexp      0.050825   0.148764   0.342   0.7340  
cpi            3.353544   1.857731   1.805   0.0767 .
cpi_unexp     -0.282294   1.734162  -0.163   0.8713  
jobs           0.990384   1.882276   0.526   0.6010  
jobs_unexp    -6.443088   3.925559  -1.641   0.1067  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04732 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2716, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1342 
F-statistic: 1.976 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.05484 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.15155    0.24285   0.624  0.53528   
capital.l1    -0.30828    0.18630  -1.655  0.10389   
const          0.02784    0.02774   1.003  0.32019   
ten_two       -0.01644    0.01181  -1.392  0.16974   
ten_two_unexp  0.03509    0.04405   0.796  0.42931   
ten           -0.12656    0.19874  -0.637  0.52698   
ten_unexp     -0.16108    0.21016  -0.766  0.44680   
cpi            7.52149    2.62446   2.866  0.00595 **
cpi_unexp     -4.03654    2.44989  -1.648  0.10534   
jobs          -2.67169    2.65914  -1.005  0.31960   
jobs_unexp    -3.00104    5.54573  -0.541  0.59068   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06685 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2855, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1507 
F-statistic: 2.118 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.03896 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.002239 0.002014
capital 0.002014 0.004469

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6365
capital 0.6365  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 150.32 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9118 0.3673 0.05599 0.05599
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.506390   0.131724   3.844 0.000343 ***
capital.l1     0.118935   0.050859   2.339 0.023399 *  
loans.l2       0.323055   0.128536   2.513 0.015227 *  
capital.l2     0.043657   0.052688   0.829 0.411265    
const          0.007115   0.023977   0.297 0.767897    
ten_two        0.004873   0.009478   0.514 0.609417    
ten_two_unexp  0.024230   0.032948   0.735 0.465521    
ten           -0.275555   0.151696  -1.817 0.075291 .  
ten_unexp      0.268260   0.162273   1.653 0.104568    
cpi           -1.980142   1.935763  -1.023 0.311267    
cpi_unexp      1.627632   1.758674   0.925 0.359157    
jobs           0.640488   2.072885   0.309 0.758618    
jobs_unexp     5.012863   4.299433   1.166 0.249172    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04978 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.646,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.561 
F-statistic: 7.602 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 9.509e-08 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.54067    0.36102  -1.498   0.1405  
capital.l1    -0.07163    0.13939  -0.514   0.6096  
loans.l2       0.73775    0.35228   2.094   0.0413 *
capital.l2     0.09645    0.14440   0.668   0.5073  
const          0.08429    0.06572   1.283   0.2056  
ten_two       -0.02338    0.02598  -0.900   0.3725  
ten_two_unexp -0.09141    0.09030  -1.012   0.3163  
ten           -0.20128    0.41576  -0.484   0.6304  
ten_unexp      0.29758    0.44475   0.669   0.5065  
cpi            1.40781    5.30543   0.265   0.7918  
cpi_unexp     -3.49828    4.82007  -0.726   0.4714  
jobs          -5.84747    5.68125  -1.029   0.3083  
jobs_unexp     2.00807   11.78364   0.170   0.8654  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1364 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1843, Adjusted R-squared: -0.01148 
F-statistic: 0.9414 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.5149 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0024776 0.0002305
capital 0.0002305 0.0186112

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.03394
capital 0.03394 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 31 
Log Likelihood: 202.111 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.191 1.191 1.013 1.013 0.9915 0.9915 0.988 0.988 0.9669 0.9669 0.9668 0.9668 0.962 0.962 0.9185 0.9185 0.9082 0.9082 0.8883 0.8883
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.082989   0.962135  -0.086    0.939
capital.l1     0.382798   0.726932   0.527    0.651
loans.l2      -0.343827   0.661401  -0.520    0.655
capital.l2     0.494061   0.652318   0.757    0.528
loans.l3       0.224354   0.651214   0.345    0.763
capital.l3     0.407514   0.490787   0.830    0.494
loans.l4       0.044898   0.404570   0.111    0.922
capital.l4     0.343262   0.612483   0.560    0.632
loans.l5       0.027679   0.505381   0.055    0.961
capital.l5    -0.108648   0.407711  -0.266    0.815
loans.l6       0.213633   0.445382   0.480    0.679
capital.l6     0.006787   0.446678   0.015    0.989
loans.l7      -0.104152   0.354606  -0.294    0.797
capital.l7     0.077117   0.393272   0.196    0.863
loans.l8       0.251178   0.915979   0.274    0.810
capital.l8     0.001805   0.367554   0.005    0.997
loans.l9      -0.241084   0.536390  -0.449    0.697
capital.l9    -0.174969   0.365440  -0.479    0.679
loans.l10     -0.264120   0.596438  -0.443    0.701
capital.l10    0.577271   0.838608   0.688    0.562
const         -0.168193   0.536344  -0.314    0.784
ten_two        0.079336   0.069465   1.142    0.372
ten_two_unexp  0.079613   0.332481   0.239    0.833
ten            0.316296   0.894933   0.353    0.758
ten_unexp     -0.995608   1.271731  -0.783    0.516
cpi           12.815244  25.783138   0.497    0.668
cpi_unexp     -1.033778  28.517761  -0.036    0.974
jobs          -8.237684  52.008981  -0.158    0.889
jobs_unexp    11.861669  28.994489   0.409    0.722


Residual standard error: 0.09469 on 2 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8593, Adjusted R-squared: -1.11 
F-statistic: 0.4364 on 28 and 2 DF,  p-value: 0.8802 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.22542    0.71057  -0.317    0.781
capital.l1      0.26560    0.53686   0.495    0.670
loans.l2        0.94554    0.48847   1.936    0.193
capital.l2     -1.02570    0.48176  -2.129    0.167
loans.l3       -0.29492    0.48094  -0.613    0.602
capital.l3     -0.61416    0.36246  -1.694    0.232
loans.l4       -0.21434    0.29879  -0.717    0.548
capital.l4     -0.29961    0.45234  -0.662    0.576
loans.l5       -0.61472    0.37324  -1.647    0.241
capital.l5     -0.28655    0.30111  -0.952    0.442
loans.l6       -0.72128    0.32893  -2.193    0.160
capital.l6     -0.44767    0.32989  -1.357    0.308
loans.l7        0.27484    0.26189   1.049    0.404
capital.l7      0.08362    0.29044   0.288    0.801
loans.l8       -1.13139    0.67648  -1.672    0.236
capital.l8     -0.16595    0.27145  -0.611    0.603
loans.l9        0.43923    0.39614   1.109    0.383
capital.l9      0.03470    0.26989   0.129    0.909
loans.l10      -0.98725    0.44049  -2.241    0.154
capital.l10    -0.19051    0.61934  -0.308    0.787
const           0.79289    0.39611   2.002    0.183
ten_two         0.02073    0.05130   0.404    0.725
ten_two_unexp  -0.48946    0.24555  -1.993    0.184
ten             0.02152    0.66094   0.033    0.977
ten_unexp       0.57333    0.93922   0.610    0.604
cpi           -31.84507   19.04170  -1.672    0.236
cpi_unexp      35.51550   21.06131   1.686    0.234
jobs          -70.28684   38.41035  -1.830    0.209
jobs_unexp     59.46533   21.41339   2.777    0.109


Residual standard error: 0.06993 on 2 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared:  0.94,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.09967 
F-statistic: 1.119 on 28 and 2 DF,  p-value: 0.5796 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.008966 0.006485
capital 0.006485 0.004890

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.9794
capital 0.9794  1.0000
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 31 
Log Likelihood: 197.177 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
 2.56 1.369 0.9882 0.9882 0.9744 0.9744 0.9666 0.9666 0.9649 0.9649 0.9177 0.9177 0.8516 0.8516 0.8121 0.8121 0.6409 0.6409 0.3459 0.06609
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        1.16937    0.48159   2.428   0.1359  
capital.l1     -0.07770    0.18804  -0.413   0.7195  
loans.l2        2.40997    0.67214   3.586   0.0697 .
capital.l2      1.19154    0.46828   2.545   0.1259  
loans.l3        0.59342    0.30664   1.935   0.1926  
capital.l3      0.52886    0.24681   2.143   0.1654  
loans.l4        0.20753    0.20070   1.034   0.4098  
capital.l4      1.27637    0.40033   3.188   0.0859 .
loans.l5        0.89147    0.26267   3.394   0.0769 .
capital.l5     -0.01288    0.26222  -0.049   0.9653  
loans.l6        0.24838    0.16431   1.512   0.2697  
capital.l6      1.91449    0.61097   3.134   0.0885 .
loans.l7        0.27285    0.19623   1.390   0.2989  
capital.l7      1.30985    0.35695   3.670   0.0669 .
loans.l8       -0.45448    0.10868  -4.182   0.0527 .
capital.l8      0.74195    0.26949   2.753   0.1105  
loans.l9        0.15938    0.16150   0.987   0.4277  
capital.l9     -1.63290    0.54763  -2.982   0.0965 .
loans.l10       0.03428    0.12173   0.282   0.8047  
capital.l10     0.07567    0.30121   0.251   0.8251  
const          -0.70486    0.19637  -3.589   0.0696 .
ten_two         0.03739    0.02362   1.583   0.2543  
ten_two_unexp   0.24510    0.10037   2.442   0.1346  
ten            -0.36990    0.26512  -1.395   0.2977  
ten_unexp       0.57670    0.25705   2.244   0.1540  
cpi            30.56163    9.54527   3.202   0.0853 .
cpi_unexp     -32.78289    8.23797  -3.979   0.0577 .
jobs           61.13222   17.92427   3.411   0.0763 .
jobs_unexp     -4.89403   10.14921  -0.482   0.6773  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02464 on 2 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9901, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8512 
F-statistic:  7.13 on 28 and 2 DF,  p-value: 0.1303 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.933951   1.666091   0.561    0.632
capital.l1     -0.343081   0.650554  -0.527    0.651
loans.l2        1.386801   2.325318   0.596    0.611
capital.l2      0.885767   1.620047   0.547    0.639
loans.l3       -0.365607   1.060853  -0.345    0.763
capital.l3      0.109281   0.853870   0.128    0.910
loans.l4       -0.262652   0.694335  -0.378    0.742
capital.l4      0.526051   1.384973   0.380    0.741
loans.l5        1.095995   0.908733   1.206    0.351
capital.l5     -0.368693   0.907155  -0.406    0.724
loans.l6       -0.188757   0.568454  -0.332    0.771
capital.l6      1.252195   2.113697   0.592    0.614
loans.l7        0.153959   0.678856   0.227    0.842
capital.l7      0.307890   1.234892   0.249    0.826
loans.l8       -0.192517   0.375988  -0.512    0.660
capital.l8      0.307130   0.932326   0.329    0.773
loans.l9       -0.130199   0.558709  -0.233    0.837
capital.l9     -1.309620   1.894565  -0.691    0.561
loans.l10       0.052155   0.421141   0.124    0.913
capital.l10     0.426859   1.042068   0.410    0.722
const          -0.248862   0.679373  -0.366    0.749
ten_two         0.005561   0.081717   0.068    0.952
ten_two_unexp   0.113875   0.347224   0.328    0.774
ten            -0.123048   0.917191  -0.134    0.906
ten_unexp      -0.056187   0.889292  -0.063    0.955
cpi            18.668286  33.022544   0.565    0.629
cpi_unexp       0.196307  28.499849   0.007    0.995
jobs           13.636859  62.010277   0.220    0.846
jobs_unexp    -23.865714  35.111915  -0.680    0.567


Residual standard error: 0.08525 on 2 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8604, Adjusted R-squared: -1.094 
F-statistic: 0.4403 on 28 and 2 DF,  p-value: 0.8781 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans   capital
loans    0.0006073 -0.001398
capital -0.0013976  0.007268

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.6652
capital -0.6652  1.0000
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 46 
Log Likelihood: 205.298 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.817 0.817 0.7703 0.7703 0.7335 0.7335 0.687 0.687 0.5251 0.4692
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.117562   0.196495   0.598   0.5546  
capital.l1    -0.157017   0.158825  -0.989   0.3316  
loans.l2       0.022608   0.193460   0.117   0.9078  
capital.l2    -0.229308   0.142898  -1.605   0.1202  
loans.l3      -0.185400   0.192724  -0.962   0.3446  
capital.l3     0.149599   0.152292   0.982   0.3347  
loans.l4      -0.013558   0.195578  -0.069   0.9452  
capital.l4     0.310836   0.139634   2.226   0.0345 *
loans.l5       0.151549   0.183631   0.825   0.4164  
capital.l5    -0.032858   0.147050  -0.223   0.8249  
const          0.049601   0.040399   1.228   0.2301  
ten_two       -0.018336   0.013546  -1.354   0.1871  
ten_two_unexp -0.005118   0.037194  -0.138   0.8916  
ten           -0.102093   0.185332  -0.551   0.5863  
ten_unexp      0.150084   0.199560   0.752   0.4585  
cpi            0.951356   1.803707   0.527   0.6022  
cpi_unexp     -0.572199   1.699500  -0.337   0.7390  
jobs          -0.422539   2.508933  -0.168   0.8675  
jobs_unexp    -0.229007   4.748132  -0.048   0.9619  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04204 on 27 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4426, Adjusted R-squared: 0.07101 
F-statistic: 1.191 on 18 and 27 DF,  p-value: 0.3326 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.092003   0.127933   0.719 0.478225    
capital.l1    -0.305804   0.103407  -2.957 0.006378 ** 
loans.l2      -0.354405   0.125957  -2.814 0.009024 ** 
capital.l2    -0.231528   0.093037  -2.489 0.019290 *  
loans.l3      -0.209771   0.125477  -1.672 0.106118    
capital.l3    -0.024890   0.099153  -0.251 0.803698    
loans.l4      -0.093436   0.127336  -0.734 0.469411    
capital.l4    -0.342880   0.090912  -3.772 0.000807 ***
loans.l5      -0.157284   0.119557  -1.316 0.199385    
capital.l5    -0.129435   0.095741  -1.352 0.187614    
const          0.117752   0.026303   4.477 0.000124 ***
ten_two       -0.035225   0.008819  -3.994 0.000450 ***
ten_two_unexp  0.037734   0.024216   1.558 0.130825    
ten            0.124451   0.120665   1.031 0.311515    
ten_unexp     -0.076809   0.129928  -0.591 0.559326    
cpi           -0.778204   1.174346  -0.663 0.513160    
cpi_unexp     -0.430251   1.106500  -0.389 0.700444    
jobs          -5.246261   1.633500  -3.212 0.003399 ** 
jobs_unexp     1.396127   3.091384   0.452 0.655151    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02737 on 27 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6173, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3622 
F-statistic:  2.42 on 18 and 27 DF,  p-value: 0.01844 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   1.768e-03 4.701e-05
capital 4.701e-05 7.493e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.04085
capital 0.04085 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 154.717 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7864 0.06531
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.726174   0.203253   3.573   0.0060 **
capital.l1     -1.693915   0.865830  -1.956   0.0821 . 
const           0.105807   0.032635   3.242   0.0101 * 
ten_two        -0.008164   0.010159  -0.804   0.4423   
ten_two_unexp  -0.029541   0.032585  -0.907   0.3883   
ten            -0.122435   0.080277  -1.525   0.1616   
ten_unexp       0.184634   0.076864   2.402   0.0398 * 
cpi            -2.130545   1.841006  -1.157   0.2770   
cpi_unexp       1.331318   1.810608   0.735   0.4809   
jobs          -13.909041   6.933029  -2.006   0.0758 . 
jobs_unexp      8.080419   6.128393   1.319   0.2199   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01288 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.894,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.7763 
F-statistic: 7.594 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.002715 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.028160   0.081072  -0.347    0.736
capital.l1    -0.005048   0.345354  -0.015    0.989
const          0.012014   0.013017   0.923    0.380
ten_two        0.001697   0.004052   0.419    0.685
ten_two_unexp -0.004448   0.012997  -0.342    0.740
ten            0.005961   0.032020   0.186    0.856
ten_unexp     -0.012999   0.030659  -0.424    0.682
cpi           -0.072963   0.734324  -0.099    0.923
cpi_unexp     -0.070780   0.722199  -0.098    0.924
jobs          -1.560374   2.765385  -0.564    0.586
jobs_unexp     0.780210   2.444439   0.319    0.757


Residual standard error: 0.005138 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2993, Adjusted R-squared: -0.4792 
F-statistic: 0.3845 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.9237 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans   0.0001659 3.39e-05
capital 0.0000339 2.64e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.5122
capital 0.5122  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 32 
Log Likelihood: 209.898 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.308 1.308 1.103 1.103 1.085 1.085 1.063 1.063 1.047 1.047 0.9576 0.9576 0.9391 0.9391 0.8793 0.8793 0.7721 0.7721 0.6507 0.6507
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.32195    0.56126   0.574   0.6064  
capital.l1     -0.07317    0.23518  -0.311   0.7761  
loans.l2       -0.49422    0.39025  -1.266   0.2948  
capital.l2      0.07550    0.24743   0.305   0.7802  
loans.l3        0.65623    0.70543   0.930   0.4209  
capital.l3      0.70043    0.51696   1.355   0.2684  
loans.l4        0.18952    0.54269   0.349   0.7500  
capital.l4     -1.11495    0.84907  -1.313   0.2805  
loans.l5        0.22707    0.52664   0.431   0.6955  
capital.l5      0.52241    0.59739   0.874   0.4462  
loans.l6        0.18617    0.32982   0.564   0.6119  
capital.l6     -1.48622    1.38943  -1.070   0.3632  
loans.l7       -0.87260    0.47890  -1.822   0.1660  
capital.l7      0.38548    0.71207   0.541   0.6259  
loans.l8       -0.28027    0.34587  -0.810   0.4771  
capital.l8     -1.69952    1.51336  -1.123   0.3432  
loans.l9       -0.04524    0.14309  -0.316   0.7726  
capital.l9     -0.21286    0.48175  -0.442   0.6885  
loans.l10      -0.28329    0.11555  -2.452   0.0916 .
capital.l10     0.01301    0.54835   0.024   0.9826  
const           0.16921    0.14302   1.183   0.3220  
ten_two         0.03904    0.03455   1.130   0.3406  
ten_two_unexp   0.39116    0.25703   1.522   0.2254  
ten            -0.35773    0.55814  -0.641   0.5672  
ten_unexp       0.14401    0.91072   0.158   0.8844  
cpi           -30.57042   19.06399  -1.604   0.2071  
cpi_unexp      17.70473   11.77431   1.504   0.2297  
jobs          -13.87891    8.70715  -1.594   0.2092  
jobs_unexp    -19.10172   10.38041  -1.840   0.1630  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03919 on 3 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.965,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.6388 
F-statistic: 2.958 on 28 and 3 DF,  p-value: 0.202 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.95911    0.87766   1.093    0.354
capital.l1     -0.54818    0.36776  -1.491    0.233
loans.l2        0.58620    0.61025   0.961    0.408
capital.l2     -0.19186    0.38691  -0.496    0.654
loans.l3        2.15767    1.10310   1.956    0.145
capital.l3     -0.49427    0.80839  -0.611    0.584
loans.l4        1.14687    0.84862   1.351    0.269
capital.l4     -2.21622    1.32772  -1.669    0.194
loans.l5        0.53824    0.82352   0.654    0.560
capital.l5     -0.84580    0.93416  -0.905    0.432
loans.l6        0.15888    0.51575   0.308    0.778
capital.l6     -3.45384    2.17270  -1.590    0.210
loans.l7       -1.07142    0.74887  -1.431    0.248
capital.l7     -1.72822    1.11349  -1.552    0.218
loans.l8       -0.64383    0.54084  -1.190    0.319
capital.l8     -3.21675    2.36649  -1.359    0.267
loans.l9       -0.28015    0.22376  -1.252    0.299
capital.l9     -0.83467    0.75332  -1.108    0.349
loans.l10      -0.20460    0.18069  -1.132    0.340
capital.l10    -1.68247    0.85747  -1.962    0.145
const           0.40971    0.22365   1.832    0.164
ten_two         0.02931    0.05402   0.543    0.625
ten_two_unexp   0.32193    0.40193   0.801    0.482
ten            -0.93432    0.87279  -1.071    0.363
ten_unexp       0.98531    1.42413   0.692    0.539
cpi           -49.43340   29.81096  -1.658    0.196
cpi_unexp      26.52929   18.41186   1.441    0.245
jobs          -13.03908   13.61565  -0.958    0.409
jobs_unexp    -23.05152   16.23217  -1.420    0.251


Residual standard error: 0.06128 on 3 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8406, Adjusted R-squared: -0.6469 
F-statistic: 0.5651 on 28 and 3 DF,  p-value: 0.8242 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.001536 -0.002233
capital -0.002233  0.003755

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.9296
capital -0.9296  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 129.302 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.4674 0.3004
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.031913   0.301744  -0.106    0.918
capital.l1    -0.944588   0.582135  -1.623    0.139
const         -0.061115   0.045969  -1.329    0.216
ten_two       -0.003527   0.014725  -0.240    0.816
ten_two_unexp -0.022774   0.067353  -0.338    0.743
ten            0.069864   0.155289   0.450    0.663
ten_unexp     -0.097700   0.134747  -0.725    0.487
cpi            5.701127   3.235618   1.762    0.112
cpi_unexp     -0.849905   3.683358  -0.231    0.823
jobs          13.595542  11.007551   1.235    0.248
jobs_unexp    -5.245278   9.324892  -0.563    0.588


Residual standard error: 0.01882 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6685, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3002 
F-statistic: 1.815 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.1918 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.153211   0.179205  -0.855    0.415
capital.l1    -0.135098   0.345729  -0.391    0.705
const          0.018852   0.027301   0.691    0.507
ten_two       -0.008367   0.008745  -0.957    0.364
ten_two_unexp  0.031435   0.040001   0.786    0.452
ten           -0.027697   0.092226  -0.300    0.771
ten_unexp      0.001284   0.080026   0.016    0.988
cpi            0.480725   1.921629   0.250    0.808
cpi_unexp     -1.082673   2.187541  -0.495    0.633
jobs           0.065534   6.537370   0.010    0.992
jobs_unexp     7.271541   5.538041   1.313    0.222


Residual standard error: 0.01118 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2889, Adjusted R-squared: -0.5012 
F-statistic: 0.3656 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.9336 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   3.543e-04 5.706e-05
capital 5.706e-05 1.250e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2712
capital 0.2712  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 346.71 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.491 0.3586 0.3128 0.3128
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.113448   0.147021   0.772   0.4440  
capital.l1    -0.445851   0.699882  -0.637   0.5270  
loans.l2       0.034528   0.162990   0.212   0.8331  
capital.l2    -0.740734   0.637586  -1.162   0.2508  
const         -0.003031   0.019167  -0.158   0.8750  
ten_two        0.002182   0.007023   0.311   0.7573  
ten_two_unexp  0.015849   0.028845   0.549   0.5852  
ten            0.015358   0.116940   0.131   0.8960  
ten_unexp     -0.099108   0.127535  -0.777   0.4408  
cpi            3.228164   1.547581   2.086   0.0421 *
cpi_unexp     -2.009520   1.469649  -1.367   0.1776  
jobs          -1.738568   1.712390  -1.015   0.3149  
jobs_unexp    -0.381450   3.470808  -0.110   0.9129  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03932 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2583, Adjusted R-squared: 0.08027 
F-statistic: 1.451 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.1751 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.0003368  0.0299549   0.011   0.9911  
capital.l1     0.0729889  0.1425978   0.512   0.6110  
loans.l2      -0.0253646  0.0332084  -0.764   0.4486  
capital.l2     0.0449718  0.1299052   0.346   0.7307  
const          0.0101408  0.0039052   2.597   0.0123 *
ten_two       -0.0011909  0.0014308  -0.832   0.4092  
ten_two_unexp -0.0042162  0.0058771  -0.717   0.4765  
ten           -0.0016566  0.0238261  -0.070   0.9448  
ten_unexp      0.0180299  0.0259847   0.694   0.4910  
cpi           -0.3320734  0.3153124  -1.053   0.2973  
cpi_unexp     -0.2844432  0.2994342  -0.950   0.3467  
jobs           0.2535626  0.3488915   0.727   0.4708  
jobs_unexp    -0.0775494  0.7071609  -0.110   0.9131  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.00801 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2168, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02882 
F-statistic: 1.153 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.3414 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.546e-03 -9.427e-05
capital -9.427e-05  6.417e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2993
capital -0.2993  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 339.574 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6422 0.01793
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.574541   0.112451   5.109 4.52e-06 ***
capital.l1     0.476767   0.479314   0.995    0.324    
const         -0.003128   0.018977  -0.165    0.870    
ten_two       -0.002570   0.006830  -0.376    0.708    
ten_two_unexp -0.010667   0.023125  -0.461    0.646    
ten           -0.040015   0.107557  -0.372    0.711    
ten_unexp      0.052566   0.115221   0.456    0.650    
cpi            0.403164   1.375508   0.293    0.771    
cpi_unexp      0.043479   1.253286   0.035    0.972    
jobs           1.425389   1.460756   0.976    0.334    
jobs_unexp    -3.714230   3.051804  -1.217    0.229    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03656 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4358, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3293 
F-statistic: 4.094 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0003336 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.078995   0.029700   2.660  0.01032 * 
capital.l1     0.085590   0.126593   0.676  0.50191   
const          0.015840   0.005012   3.160  0.00260 **
ten_two       -0.002191   0.001804  -1.214  0.23000   
ten_two_unexp -0.009610   0.006108  -1.573  0.12156   
ten            0.031840   0.028407   1.121  0.26740   
ten_unexp     -0.013017   0.030431  -0.428  0.67057   
cpi           -0.483503   0.363289  -1.331  0.18892   
cpi_unexp      0.393116   0.331009   1.188  0.24027   
jobs           1.221453   0.385804   3.166  0.00256 **
jobs_unexp    -1.775641   0.806020  -2.203  0.03197 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.009655 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3805, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2636 
F-statistic: 3.255 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.002438 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.336e-03 -3.866e-05
capital -3.866e-05  9.323e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1095
capital -0.1095  1.0000
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 183.11 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9416 0.9416 0.8922 0.8814 0.8814 0.8639 0.8639 0.8566 0.8566 0.851 0.851 0.8235 0.8235 0.6366 0.6366 0.6221 0.5026 0.5026
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.04439    0.17516   0.253  0.80172   
capital.l1     0.04864    0.09086   0.535  0.59650   
loans.l2       0.01573    0.15906   0.099  0.92188   
capital.l2     0.21133    0.09626   2.195  0.03628 * 
loans.l3       0.11256    0.16905   0.666  0.51079   
capital.l3     0.01853    0.07991   0.232  0.81825   
loans.l4       0.32135    0.18378   1.749  0.09094 . 
capital.l4    -0.01471    0.06889  -0.214  0.83239   
loans.l5      -0.15194    0.15706  -0.967  0.34132   
capital.l5    -0.04134    0.07561  -0.547  0.58875   
loans.l6       0.01372    0.14861   0.092  0.92710   
capital.l6    -0.14607    0.07415  -1.970  0.05848 . 
loans.l7      -0.18633    0.16152  -1.154  0.25809   
capital.l7     0.03371    0.01499   2.248  0.03232 * 
loans.l8      -0.07290    0.16598  -0.439  0.66375   
capital.l8     0.05007    0.01756   2.852  0.00792 **
loans.l9       0.37387    0.17199   2.174  0.03802 * 
capital.l9     0.02012    0.01514   1.330  0.19402   
const          0.06742    0.03272   2.061  0.04842 * 
ten_two       -0.02207    0.01502  -1.469  0.15257   
ten_two_unexp  0.02406    0.03949   0.609  0.54707   
ten            0.22258    0.18755   1.187  0.24496   
ten_unexp     -0.20986    0.21652  -0.969  0.34046   
cpi           -5.48361    2.17063  -2.526  0.01724 * 
cpi_unexp      5.17811    2.20438   2.349  0.02585 * 
jobs           1.10577    2.98116   0.371  0.71339   
jobs_unexp     5.00175    6.28396   0.796  0.43253   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04646 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7654, Adjusted R-squared: 0.555 
F-statistic: 3.639 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.0005052 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.265766   0.354507   0.750  0.45949   
capital.l1     0.041540   0.183888   0.226  0.82287   
loans.l2      -0.726332   0.321919  -2.256  0.03177 * 
capital.l2     0.022604   0.194813   0.116  0.90843   
loans.l3       0.277683   0.342130   0.812  0.42362   
capital.l3     0.043781   0.161729   0.271  0.78854   
loans.l4      -0.085556   0.371943  -0.230  0.81969   
capital.l4     0.021171   0.139424   0.152  0.88036   
loans.l5       0.045694   0.317863   0.144  0.88669   
capital.l5    -0.162399   0.153034  -1.061  0.29736   
loans.l6       0.956759   0.300762   3.181  0.00348 **
capital.l6    -0.228308   0.150079  -1.521  0.13903   
loans.l7      -0.742873   0.326897  -2.272  0.03065 * 
capital.l7     0.003889   0.030345   0.128  0.89891   
loans.l8      -0.226397   0.335918  -0.674  0.50567   
capital.l8     0.055017   0.035531   1.548  0.13236   
loans.l9       0.354016   0.348085   1.017  0.31754   
capital.l9    -0.009098   0.030634  -0.297  0.76860   
const          0.022068   0.066216   0.333  0.74133   
ten_two       -0.012765   0.030402  -0.420  0.67768   
ten_two_unexp -0.143861   0.079931  -1.800  0.08230 . 
ten           -0.192092   0.379587  -0.506  0.61664   
ten_unexp      0.194822   0.438219   0.445  0.65993   
cpi            1.362569   4.393084   0.310  0.75866   
cpi_unexp     -0.379458   4.461393  -0.085  0.93280   
jobs           6.789250   6.033506   1.125  0.26971   
jobs_unexp     0.169013  12.717974   0.013  0.98949   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.09402 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6725, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3789 
F-statistic:  2.29 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.01606 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0021581 0.0007783
capital 0.0007783 0.0088398

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1782
capital 0.1782  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 60 
Log Likelihood: 187.692 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9578 0.9578 0.9226 0.8808 0.8808 0.8483 0.6917 0.6917 0.6049 0.6049
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.18891    0.14766   1.279 0.207963    
capital.l1     0.72492    0.30910   2.345 0.023934 *  
loans.l2      -0.55972    0.15262  -3.667 0.000698 ***
capital.l2     0.07452    0.33835   0.220 0.826775    
loans.l3      -0.22734    0.15490  -1.468 0.149824    
capital.l3     0.71116    0.32683   2.176 0.035379 *  
loans.l4       0.25083    0.14948   1.678 0.100966    
capital.l4     0.40596    0.34983   1.160 0.252576    
loans.l5      -0.32748    0.15339  -2.135 0.038790 *  
capital.l5     0.31389    0.30598   1.026 0.310977    
const          0.03371    0.05160   0.653 0.517270    
ten_two       -0.02785    0.01771  -1.573 0.123435    
ten_two_unexp  0.04989    0.07418   0.673 0.504942    
ten           -0.12939    0.27488  -0.471 0.640331    
ten_unexp      0.08070    0.31605   0.255 0.799728    
cpi           -0.66789    3.61189  -0.185 0.854207    
cpi_unexp      1.29103    3.68514   0.350 0.727882    
jobs           6.24722    4.26689   1.464 0.150788    
jobs_unexp     1.88782    7.91301   0.239 0.812626    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08644 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6772, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5355 
F-statistic: 4.778 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 1.677e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.182372   0.074236   2.457  0.01835 * 
capital.l1    -0.276662   0.155398  -1.780  0.08243 . 
loans.l2      -0.001118   0.076731  -0.015  0.98845   
capital.l2    -0.267139   0.170101  -1.570  0.12399   
loans.l3       0.239415   0.077873   3.074  0.00374 **
capital.l3    -0.167000   0.164313  -1.016  0.31542   
loans.l4      -0.015794   0.075152  -0.210  0.83459   
capital.l4     0.195306   0.175872   1.111  0.27325   
loans.l5      -0.022655   0.077116  -0.294  0.77041   
capital.l5     0.319583   0.153828   2.078  0.04406 * 
const          0.022279   0.025943   0.859  0.39547   
ten_two       -0.010739   0.008902  -1.206  0.23464   
ten_two_unexp  0.050161   0.037291   1.345  0.18597   
ten           -0.229857   0.138194  -1.663  0.10388   
ten_unexp      0.132829   0.158892   0.836  0.40802   
cpi            1.193583   1.815845   0.657  0.51465   
cpi_unexp     -1.791131   1.852670  -0.967  0.33932   
jobs           0.924238   2.145137   0.431  0.66883   
jobs_unexp    -0.263462   3.978194  -0.066  0.94752   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04345 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.509,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.2934 
F-statistic: 2.361 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.01149 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0074712 -0.0001602
capital -0.0001602  0.0018883

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.04265
capital -0.04265  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 170.662 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8565 0.5535 0.2194 0.2194
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       2.995e-01  1.277e-01   2.345 0.023025 *  
capital.l1     6.591e-04  6.668e-02   0.010 0.992153    
loans.l2       4.736e-01  1.275e-01   3.713 0.000515 ***
capital.l2     2.267e-02  6.416e-02   0.353 0.725371    
const         -1.640e-02  2.111e-02  -0.777 0.440854    
ten_two        5.040e-03  8.603e-03   0.586 0.560595    
ten_two_unexp -6.139e-03  3.310e-02  -0.185 0.853598    
ten            2.588e-02  1.524e-01   0.170 0.865821    
ten_unexp      3.853e-02  1.644e-01   0.234 0.815650    
cpi           -8.638e-01  1.934e+00  -0.447 0.657010    
cpi_unexp      2.061e+00  1.831e+00   1.126 0.265623    
jobs           4.850e+00  2.137e+00   2.270 0.027541 *  
jobs_unexp    -1.074e+01  4.449e+00  -2.414 0.019460 *  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05105 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5355, Adjusted R-squared: 0.424 
F-statistic: 4.803 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 3.534e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.10194    0.24097   0.423 0.674069    
capital.l1     -0.06711    0.12583  -0.533 0.596128    
loans.l2        0.03636    0.24065   0.151 0.880499    
capital.l2     -0.04644    0.12107  -0.384 0.702925    
const          -0.06477    0.03984  -1.626 0.110269    
ten_two         0.02620    0.01623   1.614 0.112791    
ten_two_unexp  -0.01661    0.06245  -0.266 0.791406    
ten             0.42416    0.28755   1.475 0.146457    
ten_unexp      -0.06035    0.31018  -0.195 0.846533    
cpi             0.18418    3.64896   0.050 0.959944    
cpi_unexp       1.06223    3.45520   0.307 0.759793    
jobs           12.76745    4.03175   3.167 0.002627 ** 
jobs_unexp    -29.97750    8.39580  -3.571 0.000798 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.09634 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3327, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1726 
F-statistic: 2.077 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.036 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0026065 -0.0002119
capital -0.0002119  0.0092810

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.04309
capital -0.04309  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 57 
Log Likelihood: 213.07 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9861 0.9073 0.8822 0.8822 0.8814 0.8814 0.8715 0.8715 0.8093 0.8093 0.8088 0.8088 0.8024 0.8024 0.7237 0.5189
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -0.07073    0.19137  -0.370 0.714109    
capital.l1     0.37135    0.09106   4.078 0.000281 ***
loans.l2       0.14403    0.16997   0.847 0.403073    
capital.l2     0.27195    0.12098   2.248 0.031600 *  
loans.l3       0.11157    0.16809   0.664 0.511589    
capital.l3     0.20002    0.11687   1.711 0.096675 .  
loans.l4       0.17692    0.15254   1.160 0.254706    
capital.l4    -0.10327    0.11523  -0.896 0.376861    
loans.l5       0.14492    0.11406   1.271 0.213022    
capital.l5    -0.16105    0.11453  -1.406 0.169289    
loans.l6      -0.09402    0.10803  -0.870 0.390624    
capital.l6    -0.23305    0.09787  -2.381 0.023378 *  
loans.l7       0.19706    0.10681   1.845 0.074306 .  
capital.l7     0.05138    0.09106   0.564 0.576509    
loans.l8       0.17660    0.10729   1.646 0.109568    
capital.l8    -0.02244    0.09472  -0.237 0.814268    
const         -0.08661    0.04564  -1.897 0.066817 .  
ten_two        0.02296    0.01549   1.482 0.148054    
ten_two_unexp -0.02845    0.02750  -1.035 0.308640    
ten           -0.13815    0.12268  -1.126 0.268509    
ten_unexp      0.05571    0.12863   0.433 0.667846    
cpi            4.90566    2.19005   2.240 0.032167 *  
cpi_unexp     -1.08233    1.74907  -0.619 0.540427    
jobs           5.93532    2.32600   2.552 0.015698 *  
jobs_unexp    -4.99884    4.48608  -1.114 0.273449    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03704 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7195, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5091 
F-statistic:  3.42 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.000676 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.106893   0.349539   0.306   0.7617  
capital.l1    -0.231032   0.166323  -1.389   0.1744  
loans.l2       0.546998   0.310455   1.762   0.0876 .
capital.l2     0.025553   0.220964   0.116   0.9087  
loans.l3       0.126877   0.307017   0.413   0.6822  
capital.l3     0.079792   0.213470   0.374   0.7110  
loans.l4      -0.362875   0.278614  -1.302   0.2021  
capital.l4    -0.264869   0.210474  -1.258   0.2173  
loans.l5      -0.138617   0.208325  -0.665   0.5106  
capital.l5     0.038598   0.209186   0.185   0.8548  
loans.l6      -0.091562   0.197325  -0.464   0.6458  
capital.l6     0.149263   0.178761   0.835   0.4099  
loans.l7       0.024196   0.195085   0.124   0.9021  
capital.l7     0.372433   0.166319   2.239   0.0322 *
loans.l8       0.020108   0.195970   0.103   0.9189  
capital.l8     0.238419   0.173002   1.378   0.1777  
const          0.020670   0.083367   0.248   0.8058  
ten_two        0.004227   0.028294   0.149   0.8822  
ten_two_unexp -0.135920   0.050236  -2.706   0.0108 *
ten            0.293536   0.224075   1.310   0.1995  
ten_unexp     -0.113706   0.234934  -0.484   0.6317  
cpi           -2.065001   4.000138  -0.516   0.6092  
cpi_unexp      1.064625   3.194675   0.333   0.7411  
jobs           1.228055   4.248451   0.289   0.7744  
jobs_unexp    -7.762056   8.193825  -0.947   0.3506  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06765 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4976, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1207 
F-statistic:  1.32 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.2287 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0013716 -0.0003395
capital -0.0003395  0.0045759

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1355
capital -0.1355  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 287.205 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8965 0.8058 0.8058 0.6948 0.6948 0.4644 0.4644 0.364
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.141553   0.152427   0.929  0.35813   
capital.l1     0.141621   0.155894   0.908  0.36859   
loans.l2       0.039019   0.153018   0.255  0.79991   
capital.l2     0.256351   0.159350   1.609  0.11483   
loans.l3       0.449268   0.150800   2.979  0.00469 **
capital.l3    -0.044777   0.165229  -0.271  0.78766   
loans.l4      -0.020033   0.155212  -0.129  0.89789   
capital.l4    -0.064229   0.162600  -0.395  0.69474   
const         -0.004734   0.013530  -0.350  0.72810   
ten_two       -0.001573   0.004928  -0.319  0.75107   
ten_two_unexp -0.001937   0.020830  -0.093  0.92632   
ten            0.089694   0.090408   0.992  0.32657   
ten_unexp     -0.059804   0.099229  -0.603  0.54981   
cpi            1.015109   1.150341   0.882  0.38233   
cpi_unexp     -1.190414   1.046482  -1.138  0.26147   
jobs          -0.135146   1.420212  -0.095  0.92462   
jobs_unexp    -2.318881   2.628528  -0.882  0.38246   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02877 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.488,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.3018 
F-statistic: 2.621 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.005888 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.094443   0.136099   0.694   0.4914  
capital.l1    -0.120688   0.139194  -0.867   0.3906  
loans.l2       0.046989   0.136626   0.344   0.7325  
capital.l2    -0.022778   0.142280  -0.160   0.8735  
loans.l3       0.168566   0.134646   1.252   0.2172  
capital.l3    -0.157002   0.147529  -1.064   0.2930  
loans.l4       0.333094   0.138585   2.404   0.0205 *
capital.l4    -0.033152   0.145182  -0.228   0.8204  
const          0.014784   0.012080   1.224   0.2276  
ten_two       -0.002266   0.004400  -0.515   0.6091  
ten_two_unexp  0.012950   0.018599   0.696   0.4899  
ten            0.086187   0.080724   1.068   0.2915  
ten_unexp     -0.050262   0.088600  -0.567   0.5734  
cpi           -1.136891   1.027115  -1.107   0.2744  
cpi_unexp      0.154465   0.934381   0.165   0.8695  
jobs           1.947617   1.268077   1.536   0.1317  
jobs_unexp    -2.653341   2.346957  -1.131   0.2644  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02569 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3049, Adjusted R-squared: 0.05217 
F-statistic: 1.206 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.3011 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0008277 0.0001001
capital 0.0001001 0.0006598

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1355
capital 0.1355  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 247.763 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.5351 0.5343 0.5343 0.3948
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.221376   0.125711   1.761   0.0844 .
capital.l1     0.052376   0.043977   1.191   0.2393  
loans.l2       0.229352   0.146103   1.570   0.1228  
capital.l2     0.011824   0.043004   0.275   0.7845  
const          0.001973   0.009340   0.211   0.8336  
ten_two       -0.002297   0.003872  -0.593   0.5557  
ten_two_unexp -0.021714   0.014960  -1.451   0.1529  
ten            0.073053   0.065091   1.122   0.2671  
ten_unexp     -0.044049   0.071631  -0.615   0.5414  
cpi            1.562460   0.927293   1.685   0.0982 .
cpi_unexp     -1.380352   0.849004  -1.626   0.1103  
jobs          -0.732798   0.980629  -0.747   0.4584  
jobs_unexp    -0.797577   1.926059  -0.414   0.6806  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02222 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3716, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2208 
F-statistic: 2.464 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.01297 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.218094   0.371615  -0.587   0.5599  
capital.l1    -0.010998   0.130002  -0.085   0.9329  
loans.l2      -0.804011   0.431897  -1.862   0.0685 .
capital.l2    -0.304381   0.127123  -2.394   0.0204 *
const          0.036951   0.027609   1.338   0.1868  
ten_two       -0.004928   0.011445  -0.431   0.6686  
ten_two_unexp -0.100168   0.044223  -2.265   0.0279 *
ten            0.095860   0.192415   0.498   0.6205  
ten_unexp     -0.116187   0.211750  -0.549   0.5857  
cpi            3.680867   2.741178   1.343   0.1854  
cpi_unexp     -0.705170   2.509749  -0.281   0.7799  
jobs          -5.423301   2.898847  -1.871   0.0672 .
jobs_unexp     1.093461   5.693638   0.192   0.8485  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06568 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2633, Adjusted R-squared: 0.08648 
F-statistic: 1.489 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.1599 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0004937 -0.0002025
capital -0.0002025  0.0043139

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1388
capital -0.1388  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 33 
Log Likelihood: 123.135 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.047 1.047 1.033 1.033 1.022 1.022 1.015 1.015 0.995 0.995 0.9735 0.9735 0.9718 0.9718 0.8753 0.8753 0.7303 0.7303 0.5905 0.5905
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.67612    0.37273  -1.814    0.144
capital.l1      0.35431    0.17046   2.079    0.106
loans.l2       -0.62087    0.48735  -1.274    0.272
capital.l2      0.27959    0.17337   1.613    0.182
loans.l3       -0.06690    0.45621  -0.147    0.891
capital.l3      0.23483    0.26389   0.890    0.424
loans.l4       -0.50445    0.41971  -1.202    0.296
capital.l4      0.02195    0.17851   0.123    0.908
loans.l5       -0.45480    0.47381  -0.960    0.391
capital.l5      0.20426    0.19966   1.023    0.364
loans.l6       -0.34689    0.36892  -0.940    0.400
capital.l6      0.09125    0.19004   0.480    0.656
loans.l7        0.11703    0.42847   0.273    0.798
capital.l7      0.12812    0.18766   0.683    0.532
loans.l8       -0.14619    0.41490  -0.352    0.742
capital.l8     -0.01507    0.18555  -0.081    0.939
loans.l9       -0.01204    0.22376  -0.054    0.960
capital.l9      0.26081    0.22186   1.176    0.305
loans.l10      -0.16836    0.25430  -0.662    0.544
capital.l10     0.07440    0.17538   0.424    0.693
const           0.38917    0.22433   1.735    0.158
ten_two        -0.08460    0.06716  -1.260    0.276
ten_two_unexp  -0.31513    0.28845  -1.093    0.336
ten             0.42366    0.64277   0.659    0.546
ten_unexp       0.50327    0.75954   0.663    0.544
cpi           -17.63628   15.75255  -1.120    0.326
cpi_unexp       7.23213   17.24742   0.419    0.697
jobs          -25.31408   23.73840  -1.066    0.346
jobs_unexp      3.81790   18.85156   0.203    0.849


Residual standard error: 0.09412 on 4 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8912, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1298 
F-statistic:  1.17 on 28 and 4 DF,  p-value: 0.4968 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        1.21301    0.50590   2.398  0.07454 . 
capital.l1      0.29848    0.23136   1.290  0.26655   
loans.l2        1.18450    0.66146   1.791  0.14783   
capital.l2     -0.59467    0.23531  -2.527  0.06486 . 
loans.l3        2.26064    0.61920   3.651  0.02175 * 
capital.l3     -0.68294    0.35818  -1.907  0.12924   
loans.l4        0.88145    0.56966   1.547  0.19670   
capital.l4     -0.82403    0.24229  -3.401  0.02725 * 
loans.l5        0.65330    0.64309   1.016  0.36714   
capital.l5     -0.20867    0.27100  -0.770  0.48425   
loans.l6        0.11645    0.50073   0.233  0.82751   
capital.l6     -0.57140    0.25794  -2.215  0.09109 . 
loans.l7        4.07890    0.58155   7.014  0.00218 **
capital.l7      0.07835    0.25470   0.308  0.77373   
loans.l8       -0.62779    0.56314  -1.115  0.32739   
capital.l8     -1.52211    0.25184  -6.044  0.00378 **
loans.l9        0.89604    0.30370   2.950  0.04195 * 
capital.l9      0.14122    0.30113   0.469  0.66351   
loans.l10       0.09975    0.34515   0.289  0.78694   
capital.l10    -0.98798    0.23804  -4.150  0.01425 * 
const          -0.77145    0.30447  -2.534  0.06441 . 
ten_two         0.04895    0.09116   0.537  0.61977   
ten_two_unexp   0.26579    0.39150   0.679  0.53445   
ten            -1.12800    0.87242  -1.293  0.26565   
ten_unexp       0.12131    1.03091   0.118  0.91200   
cpi            33.70463   21.38062   1.576  0.19006   
cpi_unexp     -22.51326   23.40958  -0.962  0.39066   
jobs          119.27188   32.21965   3.702  0.02080 * 
jobs_unexp    -65.41423   25.58684  -2.557  0.06287 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1277 on 4 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9687, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7495 
F-statistic:  4.42 on 28 and 4 DF,  p-value: 0.07859 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans capital
loans   0.008859 0.00326
capital 0.003260 0.01632

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2711
capital 0.2711  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 177.573 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9744 0.9744 0.9643 0.9643 0.956 0.956 0.9464 0.9464 0.9265 0.9265 0.8891 0.8891 0.8536 0.8536 0.8377 0.805 0.805 0.7702 0.7702 0.01229
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -1.223e-01  1.388e-01  -0.881 0.386505    
capital.l1     2.519e-01  1.333e-01   1.890 0.069948 .  
loans.l2      -3.496e-01  1.368e-01  -2.556 0.016782 *  
capital.l2     5.608e-01  1.485e-01   3.778 0.000833 ***
loans.l3       1.379e-01  1.276e-01   1.081 0.289833    
capital.l3    -3.725e-02  1.240e-01  -0.300 0.766296    
loans.l4      -4.798e-04  1.484e-01  -0.003 0.997445    
capital.l4    -1.513e-01  1.388e-01  -1.090 0.285800    
loans.l5       4.727e-02  1.223e-01   0.386 0.702291    
capital.l5    -3.023e-01  1.302e-01  -2.321 0.028393 *  
loans.l6       1.019e-01  1.352e-01   0.753 0.458080    
capital.l6    -4.519e-01  1.471e-01  -3.073 0.004931 ** 
loans.l7      -2.180e-02  1.243e-01  -0.175 0.862144    
capital.l7    -5.000e-01  1.461e-01  -3.424 0.002058 ** 
loans.l8      -1.417e-01  1.512e-01  -0.937 0.357339    
capital.l8    -2.792e-01  1.369e-01  -2.039 0.051726 .  
loans.l9      -2.421e-01  1.400e-01  -1.729 0.095632 .  
capital.l9    -4.036e-01  1.541e-01  -2.618 0.014541 *  
loans.l10     -3.850e-01  1.853e-01  -2.078 0.047697 *  
capital.l10   -1.292e-01  1.493e-01  -0.865 0.394805    
const          3.796e-01  5.959e-02   6.370 9.53e-07 ***
ten_two       -1.248e-01  1.904e-02  -6.558 5.93e-07 ***
ten_two_unexp -2.898e-03  8.913e-02  -0.033 0.974307    
ten            3.011e-01  2.749e-01   1.095 0.283442    
ten_unexp     -8.374e-02  3.114e-01  -0.269 0.790157    
cpi           -3.845e+00  3.766e+00  -1.021 0.316645    
cpi_unexp     -2.420e+00  3.409e+00  -0.710 0.484019    
jobs          -2.239e+01  6.528e+00  -3.431 0.002023 ** 
jobs_unexp     2.030e+01  9.687e+00   2.095 0.046037 *  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07567 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7782, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5393 
F-statistic: 3.257 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.001684 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.029929   0.118998   0.252   0.8034  
capital.l1     -0.113462   0.114227  -0.993   0.3297  
loans.l2        0.112218   0.117245   0.957   0.3473  
capital.l2     -0.222004   0.127260  -1.744   0.0929 .
loans.l3        0.041155   0.109398   0.376   0.7098  
capital.l3     -0.196427   0.106312  -1.848   0.0761 .
loans.l4       -0.084931   0.127225  -0.668   0.5103  
capital.l4     -0.187110   0.118992  -1.572   0.1279  
loans.l5        0.133564   0.104852   1.274   0.2140  
capital.l5     -0.149826   0.111626  -1.342   0.1911  
loans.l6       -0.036168   0.115933  -0.312   0.7575  
capital.l6     -0.075955   0.126076  -0.602   0.5521  
loans.l7        0.106597   0.106576   1.000   0.3264  
capital.l7     -0.093600   0.125197  -0.748   0.4614  
loans.l8       -0.106110   0.129631  -0.819   0.4205  
capital.l8     -0.139948   0.117369  -1.192   0.2439  
loans.l9       -0.061376   0.120010  -0.511   0.6134  
capital.l9     -0.024234   0.132132  -0.183   0.8559  
loans.l10       0.351348   0.158804   2.212   0.0359 *
capital.l10     0.121570   0.127990   0.950   0.3509  
const          -0.024811   0.051082  -0.486   0.6312  
ten_two        -0.013058   0.016318  -0.800   0.4308  
ten_two_unexp  -0.006371   0.076400  -0.083   0.9342  
ten             0.264127   0.235620   1.121   0.2725  
ten_unexp      -0.256416   0.266964  -0.960   0.3457  
cpi             5.388355   3.228118   1.669   0.1071  
cpi_unexp       0.904645   2.921914   0.310   0.7593  
jobs           11.357271   5.595403   2.030   0.0527 .
jobs_unexp    -17.824515   8.303166  -2.147   0.0413 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06486 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5938, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1563 
F-statistic: 1.357 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.2183 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0057260 -0.0001379
capital -0.0001379  0.0042073

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.02809
capital -0.02809  1.00000
Warning in log(sigma.det): NaNs produced
Warning in log(sigma.det): NaNs produced

Warning in log(sigma.det): NaNs produced
Warning in log(det(Sigma)): NaNs produced
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 285.737 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9936 0.9936 0.9751 0.9751 0.9246 0.9246 0.9209 0.9209 0.8897 0.8897 0.8842 0.8842 0.8747 0.8747 0.8622 0.8622 0.8363 0.03836
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.603765   0.171370  -3.523  0.00143 **
capital.l1     0.063716   0.740278   0.086  0.93200   
loans.l2      -0.014695   0.185650  -0.079  0.93746   
capital.l2     0.153705   0.621794   0.247  0.80650   
loans.l3      -0.308901   0.155541  -1.986  0.05656 . 
capital.l3    -0.955958   0.643950  -1.485  0.14846   
loans.l4      -0.517333   0.163394  -3.166  0.00362 **
capital.l4    -0.405686   0.709200  -0.572  0.57171   
loans.l5       0.139915   0.196193   0.713  0.48145   
capital.l5    -1.622693   0.638607  -2.541  0.01666 * 
loans.l6       0.018046   0.180518   0.100  0.92106   
capital.l6    -0.058721   0.637970  -0.092  0.92730   
loans.l7      -0.338632   0.172905  -1.958  0.05985 . 
capital.l7     0.042634   0.553539   0.077  0.93914   
loans.l8      -0.306855   0.163274  -1.879  0.07028 . 
capital.l8     0.865584   0.567336   1.526  0.13792   
loans.l9       0.143207   0.201747   0.710  0.48347   
capital.l9     0.554127   0.565738   0.979  0.33545   
const          0.159786   0.055755   2.866  0.00766 **
ten_two       -0.056407   0.019894  -2.835  0.00826 **
ten_two_unexp  0.006861   0.049318   0.139  0.89033   
ten            0.262274   0.227452   1.153  0.25829   
ten_unexp     -0.280421   0.254284  -1.103  0.27919   
cpi           -5.395183   2.877019  -1.875  0.07086 . 
cpi_unexp      2.533220   2.402282   1.055  0.30036   
jobs          -5.246656   3.503654  -1.497  0.14507   
jobs_unexp     5.260726   5.977793   0.880  0.38607   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05707 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6589, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3531 
F-statistic: 2.155 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.02337 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.027691   0.036361   0.762   0.4525  
capital.l1    -0.012551   0.157070  -0.080   0.9369  
loans.l2       0.027530   0.039391   0.699   0.4902  
capital.l2     0.013692   0.131931   0.104   0.9181  
loans.l3       0.003001   0.033002   0.091   0.9282  
capital.l3    -0.198571   0.136632  -1.453   0.1569  
loans.l4       0.037063   0.034668   1.069   0.2939  
capital.l4    -0.086859   0.150476  -0.577   0.5682  
loans.l5       0.038722   0.041628   0.930   0.3599  
capital.l5    -0.233402   0.135498  -1.723   0.0956 .
loans.l6      -0.010198   0.038302  -0.266   0.7919  
capital.l6     0.220660   0.135363   1.630   0.1139  
loans.l7       0.018430   0.036686   0.502   0.6192  
capital.l7    -0.129795   0.117448  -1.105   0.2782  
loans.l8       0.079724   0.034643   2.301   0.0288 *
capital.l8     0.061899   0.120376   0.514   0.6110  
loans.l9       0.068132   0.042806   1.592   0.1223  
capital.l9     0.317278   0.120037   2.643   0.0131 *
const          0.032466   0.011830   2.744   0.0103 *
ten_two       -0.011187   0.004221  -2.650   0.0129 *
ten_two_unexp -0.024416   0.010464  -2.333   0.0268 *
ten            0.046144   0.048260   0.956   0.3469  
ten_unexp     -0.021751   0.053953  -0.403   0.6898  
cpi            0.459107   0.610438   0.752   0.4581  
cpi_unexp     -0.543078   0.509710  -1.065   0.2955  
jobs          -0.225572   0.743396  -0.303   0.7637  
jobs_unexp     0.452308   1.268352   0.357   0.7240  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01211 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6277, Adjusted R-squared: 0.294 
F-statistic: 1.881 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.05031 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    3.257e-03 -6.793e-05
capital -6.793e-05  1.466e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.09831
capital -0.09831  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 54.721 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.5424 0.5424
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.10164    0.32465  -0.313    0.761
capital.l1     -0.24202    0.19867  -1.218    0.254
const           0.01960    0.18940   0.104    0.920
ten_two        -0.03765    0.05365  -0.702    0.501
ten_two_unexp  -0.13406    0.22197  -0.604    0.561
ten            -0.34111    0.46480  -0.734    0.482
ten_unexp       0.20912    0.47920   0.436    0.673
cpi            10.15435   11.08775   0.916    0.384
cpi_unexp      -3.73626   11.19503  -0.334    0.746
jobs            7.63235   43.94077   0.174    0.866
jobs_unexp    -30.47895   43.07509  -0.708    0.497


Residual standard error: 0.08061 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3798, Adjusted R-squared: -0.3094 
F-statistic: 0.551 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.8168 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        1.25657    0.42157   2.981   0.0154 *
capital.l1      0.09763    0.25798   0.378   0.7139  
const           0.11875    0.24595   0.483   0.6407  
ten_two         0.04502    0.06966   0.646   0.5342  
ten_two_unexp   0.21981    0.28823   0.763   0.4652  
ten             0.38036    0.60356   0.630   0.5442  
ten_unexp      -0.47840    0.62227  -0.769   0.4617  
cpi           -16.08452   14.39804  -1.117   0.2929  
cpi_unexp       4.58645   14.53734   0.315   0.7596  
jobs          -35.19980   57.05943  -0.617   0.5526  
jobs_unexp     88.90685   55.93531   1.589   0.1464  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1047 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5565, Adjusted R-squared: 0.06371 
F-statistic: 1.129 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.4323 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0064976 -0.0002141
capital -0.0002141  0.0109565

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.02537
capital -0.02537  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 44 
Log Likelihood: 175.075 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9317 0.9317 0.9144 0.9144 0.8878 0.8878 0.8759 0.8759 0.8698 0.8698  0.85  0.85  0.85  0.85 0.8234 0.8234 0.7774 0.7774 0.6283 0.6283
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.29051    0.28659   1.014   0.3268  
capital.l1      0.17948    0.22213   0.808   0.4317  
loans.l2        0.10555    0.23650   0.446   0.6618  
capital.l2      0.01649    0.19754   0.083   0.9346  
loans.l3        0.20759    0.19693   1.054   0.3085  
capital.l3     -0.18527    0.17971  -1.031   0.3189  
loans.l4        0.11120    0.22248   0.500   0.6244  
capital.l4      0.21907    0.13562   1.615   0.1271  
loans.l5        0.05927    0.19845   0.299   0.7693  
capital.l5     -0.11213    0.14604  -0.768   0.4545  
loans.l6       -0.17088    0.21552  -0.793   0.4402  
capital.l6      0.20321    0.13227   1.536   0.1453  
loans.l7       -0.23719    0.19533  -1.214   0.2434  
capital.l7     -0.27106    0.16717  -1.621   0.1257  
loans.l8       -0.02943    0.24170  -0.122   0.9047  
capital.l8      0.01181    0.18809   0.063   0.9508  
loans.l9        0.16967    0.14355   1.182   0.2556  
capital.l9     -0.28102    0.14749  -1.905   0.0761 .
loans.l10      -0.08382    0.09374  -0.894   0.3854  
capital.l10    -0.08319    0.14771  -0.563   0.5816  
const           0.06931    0.05288   1.311   0.2096  
ten_two        -0.03630    0.02191  -1.657   0.1183  
ten_two_unexp  -0.06875    0.08555  -0.804   0.4342  
ten            -0.16946    0.28228  -0.600   0.5573  
ten_unexp       0.18311    0.32496   0.563   0.5814  
cpi             2.94695    4.11542   0.716   0.4849  
cpi_unexp      -0.49562    3.67466  -0.135   0.8945  
jobs           -0.01530    4.94169  -0.003   0.9976  
jobs_unexp    -10.10592    9.25138  -1.092   0.2919  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05669 on 15 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7948, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4117 
F-statistic: 2.075 on 28 and 15 DF,  p-value: 0.06973 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.03138    0.28665  -0.109   0.9143  
capital.l1    -0.20892    0.22217  -0.940   0.3619  
loans.l2       0.13205    0.23655   0.558   0.5849  
capital.l2    -0.47459    0.19757  -2.402   0.0297 *
loans.l3      -0.19799    0.19697  -1.005   0.3307  
capital.l3    -0.12742    0.17975  -0.709   0.4893  
loans.l4       0.27981    0.22252   1.257   0.2278  
capital.l4    -0.17148    0.13565  -1.264   0.2255  
loans.l5       0.02141    0.19849   0.108   0.9155  
capital.l5    -0.01189    0.14607  -0.081   0.9362  
loans.l6       0.16993    0.21556   0.788   0.4428  
capital.l6    -0.19069    0.13230  -1.441   0.1700  
loans.l7       0.03576    0.19537   0.183   0.8572  
capital.l7    -0.05335    0.16721  -0.319   0.7541  
loans.l8      -0.11465    0.24175  -0.474   0.6421  
capital.l8    -0.27981    0.18813  -1.487   0.1576  
loans.l9       0.11077    0.14358   0.771   0.4524  
capital.l9     0.01636    0.14752   0.111   0.9132  
loans.l10      0.06352    0.09376   0.678   0.5084  
capital.l10   -0.27135    0.14774  -1.837   0.0861 .
const          0.01457    0.05289   0.276   0.7866  
ten_two        0.01336    0.02191   0.610   0.5510  
ten_two_unexp  0.03588    0.08557   0.419   0.6809  
ten           -0.27161    0.28234  -0.962   0.3513  
ten_unexp      0.07803    0.32503   0.240   0.8135  
cpi            5.38356    4.11620   1.308   0.2106  
cpi_unexp     -3.62516    3.67536  -0.986   0.3396  
jobs          -1.11450    4.94263  -0.225   0.8246  
jobs_unexp     7.89537    9.25315   0.853   0.4069  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0567 on 15 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5659, Adjusted R-squared: -0.2445 
F-statistic: 0.6983 on 28 and 15 DF,  p-value: 0.8002 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0032134 -0.0001012
capital -0.0001012  0.0032146

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.03148
capital -0.03148  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 62 
Log Likelihood: 196.709 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8724 0.7641 0.7641 0.7594 0.6667 0.6667
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.180199   0.127158   1.417 0.163039    
capital.l1    -0.022311   0.031334  -0.712 0.479970    
loans.l2       0.058860   0.128137   0.459 0.648098    
capital.l2     0.034070   0.031307   1.088 0.282034    
loans.l3       0.255809   0.119188   2.146 0.037045 *  
capital.l3    -0.054464   0.032581  -1.672 0.101239    
const          0.028996   0.017438   1.663 0.102995    
ten_two       -0.008307   0.006469  -1.284 0.205396    
ten_two_unexp -0.011655   0.018808  -0.620 0.538468    
ten            0.077377   0.088156   0.878 0.384555    
ten_unexp     -0.063300   0.094230  -0.672 0.505029    
cpi           -1.978119   1.130888  -1.749 0.086789 .  
cpi_unexp      0.500450   1.021022   0.490 0.626311    
jobs           4.655767   1.240422   3.753 0.000479 ***
jobs_unexp    -4.361075   2.604085  -1.675 0.100634    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02837 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6285, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5178 
F-statistic:  5.68 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 2.985e-06 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -0.54320    0.51335  -1.058  0.29540   
capital.l1     -0.06610    0.12650  -0.523  0.60377   
loans.l2        0.93297    0.51730   1.804  0.07772 . 
capital.l2     -0.05927    0.12639  -0.469  0.64126   
loans.l3       -1.15890    0.48118  -2.408  0.01999 * 
capital.l3     -0.42540    0.13153  -3.234  0.00224 **
const           0.05916    0.07040   0.840  0.40499   
ten_two        -0.01041    0.02611  -0.399  0.69188   
ten_two_unexp  -0.06838    0.07593  -0.901  0.37238   
ten             0.15033    0.35589   0.422  0.67467   
ten_unexp       0.06978    0.38042   0.183  0.85526   
cpi            -2.11571    4.56553  -0.463  0.64521   
cpi_unexp       0.08609    4.12199   0.021  0.98343   
jobs           16.40929    5.00773   3.277  0.00198 **
jobs_unexp    -20.46556   10.51301  -1.947  0.05756 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1145 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.383,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.1992 
F-statistic: 2.084 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.03078 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0008047 -0.0002919
capital -0.0002919  0.0131146

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.08986
capital -0.08986  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 333.14 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9885 0.9885 0.9607 0.9607 0.9474 0.9474 0.9465 0.9267 0.9267 0.9117 0.9117 0.9067 0.9067 0.8834 0.8645 0.8645 0.8065 0.8065 0.6437 0.6437
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.018086   0.191643   0.094    0.926
capital.l1     0.168782   0.275165   0.613    0.545
loans.l2      -0.092227   0.171957  -0.536    0.596
capital.l2     0.059961   0.266487   0.225    0.824
loans.l3       0.132987   0.168519   0.789    0.437
capital.l3    -0.122008   0.311259  -0.392    0.698
loans.l4      -0.088598   0.168074  -0.527    0.603
capital.l4    -0.103041   0.284094  -0.363    0.720
loans.l5      -0.108168   0.195098  -0.554    0.584
capital.l5    -0.292755   0.359483  -0.814    0.423
loans.l6      -0.321502   0.195803  -1.642    0.113
capital.l6     0.301942   0.360963   0.836    0.411
loans.l7       0.169635   0.179394   0.946    0.353
capital.l7     0.105027   0.271859   0.386    0.702
loans.l8       0.322465   0.189324   1.703    0.100
capital.l8    -0.135762   0.287271  -0.473    0.640
loans.l9      -0.115767   0.171194  -0.676    0.505
capital.l9     0.013821   0.288733   0.048    0.962
loans.l10      0.166840   0.170069   0.981    0.336
capital.l10   -0.164723   0.294460  -0.559    0.581
const          0.027496   0.017833   1.542    0.135
ten_two       -0.008533   0.005921  -1.441    0.161
ten_two_unexp -0.030960   0.018931  -1.635    0.114
ten            0.134537   0.095526   1.408    0.171
ten_unexp     -0.031362   0.092998  -0.337    0.739
cpi           -1.284113   1.497993  -0.857    0.399
cpi_unexp     -0.540473   1.220676  -0.443    0.662
jobs           0.561102   1.202191   0.467    0.645
jobs_unexp     0.646641   2.610536   0.248    0.806


Residual standard error: 0.02218 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5306, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02508 
F-statistic:  1.05 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.4523 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.039719   0.117276  -0.339   0.7376  
capital.l1    -0.148086   0.168387  -0.879   0.3872  
loans.l2       0.044501   0.105229   0.423   0.6758  
capital.l2     0.095408   0.163076   0.585   0.5636  
loans.l3       0.189013   0.103125   1.833   0.0783 .
capital.l3    -0.353341   0.190475  -1.855   0.0750 .
loans.l4      -0.199964   0.102853  -1.944   0.0628 .
capital.l4     0.476978   0.173851   2.744   0.0109 *
loans.l5       0.016656   0.119390   0.140   0.8901  
capital.l5    -0.019947   0.219985  -0.091   0.9284  
loans.l6      -0.044401   0.119822  -0.371   0.7140  
capital.l6    -0.152307   0.220891  -0.690   0.4966  
loans.l7      -0.001963   0.109780  -0.018   0.9859  
capital.l7    -0.071713   0.166364  -0.431   0.6700  
loans.l8      -0.150208   0.115857  -1.296   0.2062  
capital.l8    -0.087783   0.175795  -0.499   0.6217  
loans.l9      -0.277205   0.104762  -2.646   0.0136 *
capital.l9    -0.244582   0.176690  -1.384   0.1781  
loans.l10     -0.231886   0.104073  -2.228   0.0347 *
capital.l10   -0.250715   0.180195  -1.391   0.1759  
const          0.028872   0.010913   2.646   0.0136 *
ten_two       -0.002727   0.003623  -0.753   0.4584  
ten_two_unexp -0.001178   0.011585  -0.102   0.9198  
ten           -0.093811   0.058457  -1.605   0.1206  
ten_unexp      0.073408   0.056910   1.290   0.2084  
cpi            1.715547   0.916696   1.871   0.0726 .
cpi_unexp     -1.033747   0.746991  -1.384   0.1782  
jobs          -1.592418   0.735679  -2.165   0.0398 *
jobs_unexp     0.242937   1.597515   0.152   0.8803  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01357 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8935, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7788 
F-statistic: 7.789 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 6.134e-07 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   4.918e-04 8.054e-05
capital 8.054e-05 1.842e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2676
capital 0.2676  1.0000
Warning in cor(resids): the standard deviation is zero
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 216.971 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2917 0.1002
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.2278131  0.1340721   1.699   0.0951 .
capital.l1     0.0993591  0.0814667   1.220   0.2280  
const          0.0053590  0.0156867   0.342   0.7340  
ten_two       -0.0000429  0.0065589  -0.007   0.9948  
ten_two_unexp -0.0337896  0.0246247  -1.372   0.1758  
ten           -0.1301846  0.1176980  -1.106   0.2737  
ten_unexp      0.2180007  0.1264240   1.724   0.0905 .
cpi            1.2116000  1.4724751   0.823   0.4143  
cpi_unexp     -1.2887947  1.3511953  -0.954   0.3445  
jobs          -1.1323646  1.5621519  -0.725   0.4717  
jobs_unexp     0.0998127  3.2410038   0.031   0.9755  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03913 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.156,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.003194 
F-statistic: 0.9799 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.4718 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.082056   0.210525   0.390  0.69827   
capital.l1     0.164088   0.127922   1.283  0.20517   
const         -0.005211   0.024632  -0.212  0.83328   
ten_two        0.004230   0.010299   0.411  0.68293   
ten_two_unexp -0.056577   0.038667  -1.463  0.14932   
ten            0.507321   0.184814   2.745  0.00824 **
ten_unexp     -0.514298   0.198515  -2.591  0.01234 * 
cpi            1.651251   2.312132   0.714  0.47826   
cpi_unexp     -2.132016   2.121694  -1.005  0.31953   
jobs           0.001472   2.452946   0.001  0.99952   
jobs_unexp    -0.989946   5.089138  -0.195  0.84651   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06144 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2105, Adjusted R-squared: 0.06153 
F-statistic: 1.413 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.2003 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0015310 0.0003188
capital 0.0003188 0.0037750

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1326
capital 0.1326  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 36 
Log Likelihood: 184.592 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.042 0.9648 0.9648 0.9417 0.9417 0.9242 0.9242 0.9053 0.9053  0.87  0.87 0.6951 0.6951 0.6944 0.6944 0.6715 0.6715 0.5735 0.5735 0.001852
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       8.499e-01  5.295e-01   1.605    0.152
capital.l1    -3.594e-01  3.446e-01  -1.043    0.332
loans.l2      -5.010e-01  4.982e-01  -1.006    0.348
capital.l2    -1.753e-01  3.738e-01  -0.469    0.653
loans.l3       4.072e-01  5.293e-01   0.769    0.467
capital.l3    -1.833e-01  5.223e-01  -0.351    0.736
loans.l4       6.593e-02  4.800e-01   0.137    0.895
capital.l4    -1.678e-01  3.418e-01  -0.491    0.638
loans.l5       5.293e-01  6.280e-01   0.843    0.427
capital.l5     3.617e-02  2.375e-01   0.152    0.883
loans.l6      -4.216e-02  5.136e-01  -0.082    0.937
capital.l6    -2.610e-01  2.269e-01  -1.150    0.288
loans.l7      -1.371e-01  3.687e-01  -0.372    0.721
capital.l7     3.372e-02  2.040e-01   0.165    0.873
loans.l8      -1.208e-01  2.782e-01  -0.434    0.677
capital.l8    -1.551e-01  1.729e-01  -0.897    0.399
loans.l9      -1.261e-01  2.984e-01  -0.423    0.685
capital.l9     2.154e-02  1.362e-01   0.158    0.879
loans.l10      9.249e-05  7.930e-05   1.166    0.282
capital.l10   -7.242e-02  1.586e-01  -0.457    0.662
const          4.554e-03  6.828e-02   0.067    0.949
ten_two        1.679e-02  3.903e-02   0.430    0.680
ten_two_unexp  9.106e-02  1.225e-01   0.743    0.482
ten            1.555e-01  3.150e-01   0.494    0.637
ten_unexp     -1.152e-01  3.137e-01  -0.367    0.724
cpi           -6.130e+00  6.094e+00  -1.006    0.348
cpi_unexp      2.695e+00  5.041e+00   0.535    0.609
jobs           4.123e-01  1.120e+01   0.037    0.972
jobs_unexp    -5.601e+00  1.451e+01  -0.386    0.711


Residual standard error: 0.04326 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9189, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5945 
F-statistic: 2.833 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.0785 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -3.643e-01  5.340e-01  -0.682   0.5170  
capital.l1    -1.781e-01  3.476e-01  -0.512   0.6242  
loans.l2      -1.429e-01  5.025e-01  -0.284   0.7844  
capital.l2    -3.253e-01  3.770e-01  -0.863   0.4169  
loans.l3       6.823e-01  5.339e-01   1.278   0.2420  
capital.l3    -3.808e-01  5.269e-01  -0.723   0.4933  
loans.l4       8.630e-02  4.841e-01   0.178   0.8636  
capital.l4     7.645e-02  3.448e-01   0.222   0.8308  
loans.l5      -4.849e-01  6.335e-01  -0.765   0.4690  
capital.l5     1.150e-01  2.395e-01   0.480   0.6457  
loans.l6       8.317e-01  5.181e-01   1.605   0.1524  
capital.l6    -4.029e-01  2.288e-01  -1.761   0.1216  
loans.l7      -6.554e-01  3.719e-01  -1.762   0.1214  
capital.l7     9.656e-03  2.057e-01   0.047   0.9639  
loans.l8      -3.782e-01  2.806e-01  -1.348   0.2197  
capital.l8    -1.221e-01  1.744e-01  -0.700   0.5065  
loans.l9       1.488e-01  3.009e-01   0.495   0.6360  
capital.l9    -3.199e-01  1.374e-01  -2.329   0.0527 .
loans.l10      1.349e-04  7.999e-05   1.687   0.1355  
capital.l10    2.099e-01  1.600e-01   1.311   0.2311  
const          1.653e-02  6.887e-02   0.240   0.8172  
ten_two        4.107e-02  3.937e-02   1.043   0.3315  
ten_two_unexp -6.173e-02  1.236e-01  -0.499   0.6328  
ten            5.262e-01  3.177e-01   1.656   0.1417  
ten_unexp     -4.598e-01  3.164e-01  -1.453   0.1894  
cpi           -5.655e+00  6.146e+00  -0.920   0.3881  
cpi_unexp      8.767e+00  5.084e+00   1.724   0.1283  
jobs          -6.380e+00  1.129e+01  -0.565   0.5898  
jobs_unexp    -9.331e+00  1.464e+01  -0.637   0.5441  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04363 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9434, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7171 
F-statistic: 4.169 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.02862 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0018713 0.0006108
capital 0.0006108 0.0019038

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3236
capital 0.3236  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 36 
Log Likelihood: 63.374 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
 1.03  1.03 1.026 1.026 0.9721 0.9721 0.9712 0.9712 0.9572 0.9572 0.914 0.914 0.8792 0.8792 0.8578 0.8578 0.8289 0.7622 0.7622 0.4694
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -0.128002   0.312051  -0.410  0.69393    
capital.l1     0.002433   0.011329   0.215  0.83609    
loans.l2       0.584109   0.307397   1.900  0.09918 .  
capital.l2     0.065684   0.011257   5.835  0.00064 ***
loans.l3       0.761363   0.424070   1.795  0.11567    
capital.l3     0.085142   0.019637   4.336  0.00341 ** 
loans.l4       0.797220   0.318017   2.507  0.04058 *  
capital.l4    -0.056491   0.026652  -2.120  0.07177 .  
loans.l5      -0.309916   0.344831  -0.899  0.39865    
capital.l5    -0.108647   0.045633  -2.381  0.04882 *  
loans.l6      -0.678453   0.388343  -1.747  0.12413    
capital.l6    -0.110499   0.053945  -2.048  0.07972 .  
loans.l7      -0.302848   0.215432  -1.406  0.20259    
capital.l7    -0.021754   0.031099  -0.700  0.50680    
loans.l8      -0.531600   0.162842  -3.265  0.01378 *  
capital.l8     0.094745   0.039493   2.399  0.04754 *  
loans.l9      -0.070013   0.128922  -0.543  0.60394    
capital.l9     0.107288   0.037375   2.871  0.02397 *  
loans.l10      0.090980   0.079618   1.143  0.29073    
capital.l10    0.069099   0.022914   3.016  0.01951 *  
const          0.036620   0.058494   0.626  0.55114    
ten_two       -0.023279   0.023057  -1.010  0.34629    
ten_two_unexp  0.169366   0.132377   1.279  0.24152    
ten            0.517271   0.373294   1.386  0.20838    
ten_unexp     -0.796416   0.540453  -1.474  0.18408    
cpi            1.973298   4.463274   0.442  0.67174    
cpi_unexp      3.157949   5.219751   0.605  0.56427    
jobs          -9.469540   5.560564  -1.703  0.13235    
jobs_unexp    -5.606821   7.411445  -0.757  0.47403    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04148 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9787, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8934 
F-statistic: 11.48 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.001347 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1         3.08126    9.44310   0.326   0.7537  
capital.l1      -0.21460    0.34282  -0.626   0.5512  
loans.l2        12.12974    9.30225   1.304   0.2335  
capital.l2      -0.32126    0.34064  -0.943   0.3770  
loans.l3         9.68047   12.83295   0.754   0.4752  
capital.l3      -0.04767    0.59424  -0.080   0.9383  
loans.l4         3.86561    9.62363   0.402   0.6999  
capital.l4      -1.46338    0.80653  -1.814   0.1125  
loans.l5       -13.72930   10.43506  -1.316   0.2297  
capital.l5      -1.12558    1.38091  -0.815   0.4419  
loans.l6       -14.67555   11.75180  -1.249   0.2519  
capital.l6      -0.72215    1.63246  -0.442   0.6716  
loans.l7        -1.05273    6.51928  -0.161   0.8763  
capital.l7       0.79856    0.94109   0.849   0.4242  
loans.l8        -8.20333    4.92782  -1.665   0.1399  
capital.l8       2.41202    1.19512   2.018   0.0833 .
loans.l9        -0.12782    3.90136  -0.033   0.9748  
capital.l9       1.54615    1.13101   1.367   0.2139  
loans.l10        2.13278    2.40935   0.885   0.4054  
capital.l10      0.54316    0.69340   0.783   0.4591  
const           -2.02494    1.77012  -1.144   0.2902  
ten_two          0.78295    0.69773   1.122   0.2988  
ten_two_unexp    8.69324    4.00592   2.170   0.0666 .
ten              4.69510   11.29639   0.416   0.6901  
ten_unexp      -15.51833   16.35485  -0.949   0.3743  
cpi           -186.98134  135.06474  -1.384   0.2088  
cpi_unexp      232.03900  157.95676   1.469   0.1853  
jobs            93.88956  168.27022   0.558   0.5943  
jobs_unexp    -483.86618  224.28041  -2.157   0.0679 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 1.255 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7423, Adjusted R-squared: -0.2887 
F-statistic: 0.7199 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.7512 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.001721 0.005517
capital 0.005517 1.575953

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1059
capital 0.1059  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 36 
Log Likelihood: 159.655 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9712 0.9712 0.9709 0.9709 0.9494 0.9418 0.9418 0.9313 0.9313 0.9271 0.9271 0.883 0.883 0.8669 0.8669 0.763 0.763 0.7234 0.7234 0.08649
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.51597    0.75497  -0.683   0.5163  
capital.l1      0.36507    1.11584   0.327   0.7531  
loans.l2        0.32766    0.68609   0.478   0.6475  
capital.l2     -0.26572    1.02501  -0.259   0.8029  
loans.l3        0.19006    0.61044   0.311   0.7646  
capital.l3     -0.12314    1.00614  -0.122   0.9060  
loans.l4        0.04783    0.65096   0.073   0.9435  
capital.l4     -0.63319    1.15360  -0.549   0.6001  
loans.l5       -0.42725    0.61412  -0.696   0.5090  
capital.l5      0.30394    1.03349   0.294   0.7772  
loans.l6       -0.02204    0.52028  -0.042   0.9674  
capital.l6      0.14719    0.89649   0.164   0.8742  
loans.l7       -0.27112    0.43224  -0.627   0.5504  
capital.l7      0.53504    0.80000   0.669   0.5251  
loans.l8       -0.42796    0.40063  -1.068   0.3209  
capital.l8      0.20939    0.53198   0.394   0.7056  
loans.l9       -0.27514    0.33097  -0.831   0.4332  
capital.l9      0.27979    0.50873   0.550   0.5994  
loans.l10      -0.02785    0.16713  -0.167   0.8724  
capital.l10    -0.28182    0.35608  -0.791   0.4547  
const          -0.15182    0.15124  -1.004   0.3489  
ten_two         0.07986    0.05704   1.400   0.2042  
ten_two_unexp   0.24580    0.23236   1.058   0.3253  
ten             0.51551    0.50297   1.025   0.3395  
ten_unexp      -0.74373    0.66535  -1.118   0.3005  
cpi            13.01174   12.20987   1.066   0.3219  
cpi_unexp      -5.01306   11.30105  -0.444   0.6707  
jobs            9.22351   14.31881   0.644   0.5400  
jobs_unexp    -45.04664   18.93391  -2.379   0.0489 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1123 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8384, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1922 
F-statistic: 1.297 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.3835 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -0.16854    0.52792  -0.319    0.759
capital.l1      0.12619    0.78026   0.162    0.876
loans.l2        0.18208    0.47975   0.380    0.716
capital.l2     -0.52293    0.71674  -0.730    0.489
loans.l3        0.21824    0.42685   0.511    0.625
capital.l3     -0.30227    0.70355  -0.430    0.680
loans.l4        0.33380    0.45519   0.733    0.487
capital.l4     -0.63093    0.80666  -0.782    0.460
loans.l5       -0.49528    0.42942  -1.153    0.287
capital.l5      0.50352    0.72267   0.697    0.508
loans.l6       -0.07734    0.36381  -0.213    0.838
capital.l6     -0.07349    0.62687  -0.117    0.910
loans.l7       -0.31784    0.30224  -1.052    0.328
capital.l7      0.83919    0.55941   1.500    0.177
loans.l8       -0.35234    0.28015  -1.258    0.249
capital.l8      0.37299    0.37199   1.003    0.349
loans.l9       -0.40140    0.23143  -1.734    0.126
capital.l9      0.49367    0.35573   1.388    0.208
loans.l10      -0.03404    0.11687  -0.291    0.779
capital.l10    -0.03499    0.24899  -0.141    0.892
const          -0.12399    0.10575  -1.172    0.279
ten_two         0.06692    0.03988   1.678    0.137
ten_two_unexp   0.15293    0.16248   0.941    0.378
ten             0.39341    0.35170   1.119    0.300
ten_unexp      -0.56644    0.46525  -1.218    0.263
cpi            10.07947    8.53781   1.181    0.276
cpi_unexp     -10.55428    7.90232  -1.336    0.223
jobs            5.46086   10.01250   0.545    0.602
jobs_unexp    -23.01501   13.23963  -1.738    0.126


Residual standard error: 0.07855 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7471, Adjusted R-squared: -0.2646 
F-statistic: 0.7384 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.737 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.012619 0.008069
capital 0.008069 0.006170

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.9145
capital 0.9145  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 231.021 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9224 0.9224 0.8744 0.8421 0.8421 0.8112 0.8112 0.8065 0.8065 0.7919 0.7652 0.7652 0.7371 0.7371 0.7089 0.7089 0.6204 0.522 0.522 0.5206
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.174817   0.185088  -0.945   0.3536  
capital.l1     0.373729   0.475134   0.787   0.4386  
loans.l2      -0.364117   0.219041  -1.662   0.1085  
capital.l2     0.052916   0.403023   0.131   0.8966  
loans.l3      -0.281207   0.251685  -1.117   0.2741  
capital.l3     0.265951   0.346245   0.768   0.4493  
loans.l4      -0.005801   0.246014  -0.024   0.9814  
capital.l4    -0.036303   0.285350  -0.127   0.8997  
loans.l5      -0.142647   0.222051  -0.642   0.5262  
capital.l5     0.057688   0.198005   0.291   0.7731  
loans.l6      -0.295271   0.238122  -1.240   0.2261  
capital.l6     0.077705   0.180223   0.431   0.6699  
loans.l7      -0.150720   0.229637  -0.656   0.5174  
capital.l7     0.140718   0.151852   0.927   0.3626  
loans.l8       0.009134   0.167372   0.055   0.9569  
capital.l8     0.063141   0.103337   0.611   0.5465  
loans.l9      -0.065585   0.170796  -0.384   0.7041  
capital.l9     0.007886   0.099991   0.079   0.9377  
loans.l10     -0.051977   0.168535  -0.308   0.7602  
capital.l10    0.051501   0.116365   0.443   0.6617  
const          0.115758   0.084192   1.375   0.1809  
ten_two       -0.030800   0.036744  -0.838   0.4095  
ten_two_unexp -0.155896   0.062044  -2.513   0.0185 *
ten           -0.491863   0.280764  -1.752   0.0916 .
ten_unexp      0.716576   0.312334   2.294   0.0301 *
cpi            0.142216   3.666474   0.039   0.9694  
cpi_unexp      0.564315   3.349865   0.168   0.8675  
jobs          -7.022369   5.088943  -1.380   0.1794  
jobs_unexp     9.352217   9.823716   0.952   0.3499  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07358 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6424, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2572 
F-statistic: 1.668 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.09679 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.014459   0.063620   0.227  0.82199   
capital.l1     0.195811   0.163317   1.199  0.24136   
loans.l2       0.010184   0.075291   0.135  0.89344   
capital.l2    -0.113179   0.138531  -0.817  0.42136   
loans.l3       0.087714   0.086512   1.014  0.31998   
capital.l3    -0.379483   0.119015  -3.189  0.00371 **
loans.l4       0.035057   0.084562   0.415  0.68186   
capital.l4     0.160973   0.098083   1.641  0.11280   
loans.l5       0.167460   0.076325   2.194  0.03737 * 
capital.l5    -0.099030   0.068060  -1.455  0.15763   
loans.l6       0.078243   0.081850   0.956  0.34791   
capital.l6    -0.080397   0.061948  -1.298  0.20575   
loans.l7       0.087891   0.078933   1.113  0.27569   
capital.l7     0.072377   0.052196   1.387  0.17733   
loans.l8       0.170301   0.057531   2.960  0.00648 **
capital.l8    -0.025003   0.035520  -0.704  0.48774   
loans.l9       0.078903   0.058708   1.344  0.19056   
capital.l9    -0.084974   0.034370  -2.472  0.02028 * 
loans.l10     -0.013642   0.057930  -0.235  0.81568   
capital.l10    0.061937   0.039998   1.548  0.13359   
const         -0.014340   0.028939  -0.496  0.62440   
ten_two        0.023976   0.012630   1.898  0.06880 . 
ten_two_unexp -0.009229   0.021326  -0.433  0.66878   
ten           -0.042540   0.096507  -0.441  0.66300   
ten_unexp      0.027145   0.107358   0.253  0.80238   
cpi           -0.524372   1.260275  -0.416  0.68077   
cpi_unexp      2.518633   1.151447   2.187  0.03790 * 
jobs          -2.379985   1.749219  -1.361  0.18532   
jobs_unexp     7.834444   3.376699   2.320  0.02845 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02529 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9613, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9197 
F-statistic:  23.1 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 2.78e-12 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0054140 -0.0001277
capital -0.0001277  0.0006397

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.06862
capital -0.06862  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 116.771 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1246 0.009577
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.136913   0.324945   0.421    0.683
capital.l1    -0.123267   0.252921  -0.487    0.638
const          0.001451   0.037270   0.039    0.970
ten_two       -0.007522   0.010393  -0.724    0.488
ten_two_unexp  0.008682   0.041462   0.209    0.839
ten           -0.019463   0.090716  -0.215    0.835
ten_unexp      0.018464   0.096641   0.191    0.853
cpi           -1.676172   2.327687  -0.720    0.490
cpi_unexp      0.816401   2.472593   0.330    0.749
jobs           2.424704   8.884207   0.273    0.791
jobs_unexp     1.008293   7.100764   0.142    0.890


Residual standard error: 0.01579 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2322, Adjusted R-squared: -0.6209 
F-statistic: 0.2722 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.9726 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.310747   0.495731   0.627    0.546
capital.l1     -0.271062   0.385852  -0.703    0.500
const          -0.023676   0.056859  -0.416    0.687
ten_two         0.002183   0.015856   0.138    0.894
ten_two_unexp   0.006635   0.063253   0.105    0.919
ten             0.189827   0.138395   1.372    0.203
ten_unexp      -0.252124   0.147434  -1.710    0.121
cpi            -3.489161   3.551079  -0.983    0.351
cpi_unexp       3.740848   3.772144   0.992    0.347
jobs           12.677100  13.553591   0.935    0.374
jobs_unexp    -10.652953  10.832801  -0.983    0.351


Residual standard error: 0.02409 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3695, Adjusted R-squared: -0.331 
F-statistic: 0.5275 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.8334 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   2.492e-04 3.044e-05
capital 3.044e-05 5.801e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.08006
capital 0.08006 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 159.693 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2976 0.03094
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.304050   0.133892   2.271   0.0272 *
capital.l1     0.008232   0.060169   0.137   0.8917  
const          0.031693   0.019801   1.601   0.1154  
ten_two       -0.004639   0.008391  -0.553   0.5827  
ten_two_unexp -0.011659   0.031547  -0.370   0.7132  
ten            0.158831   0.149032   1.066   0.2914  
ten_unexp     -0.195311   0.158525  -1.232   0.2234  
cpi            0.268199   1.918146   0.140   0.8893  
cpi_unexp      0.780694   1.761541   0.443   0.6594  
jobs          -1.776217   2.015296  -0.881   0.3821  
jobs_unexp     3.685762   4.343958   0.848   0.4000  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04973 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1482, Adjusted R-squared: -0.01251 
F-statistic: 0.9222 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.5204 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.214419   0.316637  -0.677    0.501
capital.l1     0.024473   0.142292   0.172    0.864
const          0.035606   0.046828   0.760    0.450
ten_two        0.017153   0.019845   0.864    0.391
ten_two_unexp -0.007787   0.074604  -0.104    0.917
ten            0.160292   0.352439   0.455    0.651
ten_unexp     -0.256394   0.374889  -0.684    0.497
cpi           -5.151786   4.536145  -1.136    0.261
cpi_unexp      1.739514   4.165795   0.418    0.678
jobs           3.296844   4.765890   0.692    0.492
jobs_unexp     9.619934  10.272847   0.936    0.353


Residual standard error: 0.1176 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1274, Adjusted R-squared: -0.03722 
F-statistic: 0.7739 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6529 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0024730 0.0004427
capital 0.0004427 0.0138302

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.07569
capital 0.07569 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 333.357 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.04287 0.04287
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.057532   0.137788   0.418   0.6780  
capital.l1    -1.199874   1.023035  -1.173   0.2461  
const          0.020419   0.022927   0.891   0.3772  
ten_two        0.009801   0.009435   1.039   0.3036  
ten_two_unexp  0.016569   0.034271   0.483   0.6308  
ten            0.079223   0.160398   0.494   0.6234  
ten_unexp     -0.152218   0.172903  -0.880   0.3826  
cpi           -3.864080   2.065816  -1.870   0.0669 .
cpi_unexp      2.413487   1.881037   1.283   0.2051  
jobs          -4.241858   2.361825  -1.796   0.0782 .
jobs_unexp     0.932566   4.725215   0.197   0.8443  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05462 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3296, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2031 
F-statistic: 2.606 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.01187 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.0046461  0.0179694   0.259   0.7970  
capital.l1    -0.0649570  0.1334168  -0.487   0.6284  
const          0.0033616  0.0029899   1.124   0.2660  
ten_two        0.0007314  0.0012304   0.594   0.5548  
ten_two_unexp -0.0043008  0.0044694  -0.962   0.3403  
ten            0.0236263  0.0209180   1.129   0.2638  
ten_unexp     -0.0097940  0.0225488  -0.434   0.6658  
cpi            0.2467386  0.2694089   0.916   0.3639  
cpi_unexp     -0.4276283  0.2453114  -1.743   0.0871 .
jobs           0.1789786  0.3080123   0.581   0.5637  
jobs_unexp    -0.3668734  0.6162286  -0.595   0.5541  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.007123 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1275, Adjusted R-squared: -0.03713 
F-statistic: 0.7745 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6524 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    2.983e-03 -4.295e-05
capital -4.295e-05  5.073e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1104
capital -0.1104  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 260.699 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2376 0.1291
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.211792   0.133824  -1.583  0.11946   
capital.l1     0.202931   0.095927   2.115  0.03911 * 
const          0.034638   0.012436   2.785  0.00740 **
ten_two       -0.017568   0.005367  -3.273  0.00187 **
ten_two_unexp -0.014993   0.018746  -0.800  0.42742   
ten           -0.073673   0.087670  -0.840  0.40449   
ten_unexp      0.008108   0.093469   0.087  0.93120   
cpi            2.867456   1.142149   2.511  0.01514 * 
cpi_unexp     -1.274266   1.064009  -1.198  0.23640   
jobs          -2.687137   1.204882  -2.230  0.02999 * 
jobs_unexp     2.787470   2.469608   1.129  0.26410   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02972 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3287, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2021 
F-statistic: 2.595 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.01217 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.010530   0.185266   0.057    0.955
capital.l1    -0.154983   0.132801  -1.167    0.248
const          0.016962   0.017216   0.985    0.329
ten_two        0.007479   0.007430   1.007    0.319
ten_two_unexp -0.013707   0.025952  -0.528    0.600
ten            0.180220   0.121370   1.485    0.143
ten_unexp     -0.148932   0.129398  -1.151    0.255
cpi           -0.983684   1.581189  -0.622    0.537
cpi_unexp      1.132162   1.473012   0.769    0.446
jobs          -0.485082   1.668037  -0.291    0.772
jobs_unexp    -2.868746   3.418922  -0.839    0.405


Residual standard error: 0.04114 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared:  0.12,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.04608 
F-statistic: 0.7225 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6997 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0008833 0.0002178
capital 0.0002178 0.0016929

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1781
capital 0.1781  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 309.386 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9646 0.9646 0.9547 0.9547 0.9224 0.9224 0.9207 0.9149 0.9149 0.914 0.914 0.8877 0.8877 0.8386 0.8114 0.8114 0.8072 0.8072 0.7515 0.6867
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.367161   0.195750   1.876    0.072 .
capital.l1     0.323064   0.254092   1.271    0.215  
loans.l2       0.054372   0.221800   0.245    0.808  
capital.l2     0.135553   0.205867   0.658    0.516  
loans.l3       0.117013   0.214212   0.546    0.590  
capital.l3    -0.003448   0.178696  -0.019    0.985  
loans.l4      -0.006418   0.214126  -0.030    0.976  
capital.l4     0.249888   0.178192   1.402    0.173  
loans.l5       0.029014   0.224725   0.129    0.898  
capital.l5     0.266501   0.184207   1.447    0.160  
loans.l6       0.075074   0.234468   0.320    0.751  
capital.l6    -0.270755   0.165410  -1.637    0.114  
loans.l7      -0.033546   0.237832  -0.141    0.889  
capital.l7    -0.083878   0.145003  -0.578    0.568  
loans.l8      -0.009328   0.238571  -0.039    0.969  
capital.l8     0.199595   0.131683   1.516    0.142  
loans.l9       0.134752   0.237222   0.568    0.575  
capital.l9    -0.141114   0.178297  -0.791    0.436  
loans.l10     -0.135750   0.203284  -0.668    0.510  
capital.l10   -0.126807   0.150270  -0.844    0.406  
const          0.018585   0.022922   0.811    0.425  
ten_two       -0.014905   0.009642  -1.546    0.134  
ten_two_unexp  0.001813   0.027798   0.065    0.948  
ten           -0.151901   0.112424  -1.351    0.188  
ten_unexp      0.192518   0.133320   1.444    0.161  
cpi           -1.802668   1.449518  -1.244    0.225  
cpi_unexp      0.822701   1.416923   0.581    0.566  
jobs           2.398114   1.816848   1.320    0.198  
jobs_unexp    -2.795691   2.803771  -0.997    0.328  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02788 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8005, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5858 
F-statistic: 3.727 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.0005868 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -0.101768   0.118177  -0.861  0.39703    
capital.l1    -0.213888   0.153399  -1.394  0.17502    
loans.l2       0.017199   0.133904   0.128  0.89879    
capital.l2     0.107830   0.124285   0.868  0.39355    
loans.l3       0.085734   0.129323   0.663  0.51320    
capital.l3    -0.311026   0.107882  -2.883  0.00780 ** 
loans.l4       0.389813   0.129272   3.015  0.00567 ** 
capital.l4    -0.202731   0.107578  -1.885  0.07072 .  
loans.l5      -0.432980   0.135670  -3.191  0.00368 ** 
capital.l5     0.183196   0.111209   1.647  0.11153    
loans.l6       0.319789   0.141552   2.259  0.03249 *  
capital.l6    -0.050459   0.099861  -0.505  0.61761    
loans.l7      -0.131459   0.143583  -0.916  0.36831    
capital.l7    -0.096678   0.087541  -1.104  0.27955    
loans.l8      -0.117888   0.144030  -0.819  0.42051    
capital.l8     0.426271   0.079499   5.362  1.3e-05 ***
loans.l9      -0.140334   0.143215  -0.980  0.33617    
capital.l9     0.154301   0.107641   1.433  0.16364    
loans.l10      0.416402   0.122726   3.393  0.00222 ** 
capital.l10   -0.111587   0.090721  -1.230  0.22971    
const          0.011103   0.013838   0.802  0.42962    
ten_two        0.001060   0.005821   0.182  0.85692    
ten_two_unexp -0.002596   0.016782  -0.155  0.87827    
ten           -0.028275   0.067872  -0.417  0.68040    
ten_unexp      0.090295   0.080487   1.122  0.27218    
cpi            1.661569   0.875098   1.899  0.06875 .  
cpi_unexp     -0.553028   0.855420  -0.646  0.52362    
jobs           0.824302   1.096862   0.752  0.45910    
jobs_unexp     1.025046   1.692684   0.606  0.55005    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01683 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.845,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.6781 
F-statistic: 5.062 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 4.163e-05 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0007772 0.0001438
capital 0.0001438 0.0002833

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3066
capital 0.3066  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 38 
Log Likelihood: 185.028 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.072 1.072 0.9959 0.993 0.993 0.9545 0.9545 0.9319 0.9319 0.9261 0.9261 0.8984 0.8984 0.863 0.863 0.8464 0.8101 0.8101 0.4998 0.4998
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       -0.30777    0.23037  -1.336  0.21436   
capital.l1      0.85413    0.45559   1.875  0.09358 . 
loans.l2        0.21156    0.32405   0.653  0.53016   
capital.l2     -0.47306    0.64551  -0.733  0.48230   
loans.l3       -0.37228    0.28188  -1.321  0.21919   
capital.l3     -0.35817    0.46566  -0.769  0.46150   
loans.l4       -0.16008    0.20647  -0.775  0.45805   
capital.l4     -0.00145    0.45058  -0.003  0.99750   
loans.l5        0.13208    0.26918   0.491  0.63541   
capital.l5      0.43065    0.35642   1.208  0.25773   
loans.l6        0.14460    0.21716   0.666  0.52218   
capital.l6      0.18868    0.33389   0.565  0.58582   
loans.l7        0.22974    0.21089   1.089  0.30429   
capital.l7      0.28611    0.36352   0.787  0.45147   
loans.l8       -0.39706    0.20915  -1.898  0.09011 . 
capital.l8     -0.57026    0.40833  -1.397  0.19602   
loans.l9       -0.16497    0.18984  -0.869  0.40743   
capital.l9     -0.80053    0.41186  -1.944  0.08381 . 
loans.l10       0.40797    0.15641   2.608  0.02835 * 
capital.l10    -0.27190    0.33333  -0.816  0.43573   
const           0.21771    0.06337   3.436  0.00744 **
ten_two        -0.10122    0.02896  -3.495  0.00677 **
ten_two_unexp   0.20758    0.10760   1.929  0.08579 . 
ten            -0.32092    0.31574  -1.016  0.33598   
ten_unexp      -0.24771    0.29514  -0.839  0.42304   
cpi             2.42502    5.83860   0.415  0.68762   
cpi_unexp      -3.48191    4.16978  -0.835  0.42531   
jobs          -18.29504    9.36869  -1.953  0.08260 . 
jobs_unexp     32.50575   13.92643   2.334  0.04445 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05317 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8814, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5125 
F-statistic: 2.389 on 28 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.08585 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.008218   0.155739   0.053   0.9591  
capital.l1    -0.189488   0.307991  -0.615   0.5536  
loans.l2      -0.047129   0.219068  -0.215   0.8345  
capital.l2     0.134493   0.436380   0.308   0.7649  
loans.l3      -0.211878   0.190559  -1.112   0.2950  
capital.l3    -0.063633   0.314801  -0.202   0.8443  
loans.l4       0.186851   0.139582   1.339   0.2135  
capital.l4     0.201515   0.304601   0.662   0.5248  
loans.l5       0.038750   0.181974   0.213   0.8361  
capital.l5     0.022135   0.240950   0.092   0.9288  
loans.l6      -0.310477   0.146804  -2.115   0.0636 .
capital.l6    -0.450837   0.225722  -1.997   0.0769 .
loans.l7       0.142134   0.142565   0.997   0.3448  
capital.l7    -0.043234   0.245746  -0.176   0.8642  
loans.l8       0.102525   0.141390   0.725   0.4868  
capital.l8    -0.228464   0.276039  -0.828   0.4293  
loans.l9       0.008678   0.128338   0.068   0.9476  
capital.l9    -0.205914   0.278431  -0.740   0.4784  
loans.l10     -0.119720   0.105740  -1.132   0.2868  
capital.l10   -0.076813   0.225343  -0.341   0.7410  
const          0.070009   0.042837   1.634   0.1366  
ten_two       -0.027846   0.019578  -1.422   0.1887  
ten_two_unexp -0.033175   0.072740  -0.456   0.6591  
ten           -0.270864   0.213445  -1.269   0.2363  
ten_unexp      0.325107   0.199526   1.629   0.1377  
cpi            3.399165   3.947045   0.861   0.4115  
cpi_unexp     -4.898753   2.818876  -1.738   0.1162  
jobs          -8.563154   6.333476  -1.352   0.2094  
jobs_unexp    13.047244   9.414628   1.386   0.1992  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03594 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8302, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3021 
F-statistic: 1.572 on 28 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.2433 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0028270 0.0002188
capital 0.0002188 0.0012920

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1145
capital 0.1145  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 186.94 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9659 0.9659 0.9514 0.9514 0.9241 0.9241 0.9132 0.9132 0.9061 0.9061 0.889 0.889 0.8702 0.8702 0.8459 0.8371 0.8371 0.7951 0.7951 0.7388
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.682909   0.188938   3.614  0.00127 **
capital.l1    -0.454263   0.171762  -2.645  0.01368 * 
loans.l2       0.037144   0.187031   0.199  0.84412   
capital.l2     0.126652   0.141269   0.897  0.37820   
loans.l3       0.213425   0.185206   1.152  0.25966   
capital.l3     0.218512   0.141888   1.540  0.13564   
loans.l4      -0.007306   0.209159  -0.035  0.97240   
capital.l4     0.205686   0.102651   2.004  0.05562 . 
loans.l5       0.010475   0.207025   0.051  0.96003   
capital.l5    -0.106195   0.096705  -1.098  0.28221   
loans.l6      -0.331193   0.209279  -1.583  0.12562   
capital.l6     0.028490   0.089512   0.318  0.75281   
loans.l7      -0.013141   0.218845  -0.060  0.95258   
capital.l7     0.096200   0.096815   0.994  0.32955   
loans.l8       0.254648   0.194352   1.310  0.20157   
capital.l8    -0.038853   0.100742  -0.386  0.70288   
loans.l9       0.072325   0.207817   0.348  0.73063   
capital.l9     0.054500   0.095436   0.571  0.57286   
loans.l10     -0.345829   0.217722  -1.588  0.12428   
capital.l10    0.162525   0.084915   1.914  0.06669 . 
const         -0.031127   0.043648  -0.713  0.48212   
ten_two       -0.009893   0.015111  -0.655  0.51842   
ten_two_unexp  0.074246   0.062369   1.190  0.24463   
ten           -0.681916   0.241242  -2.827  0.00893 **
ten_unexp      0.897097   0.258071   3.476  0.00180 **
cpi            6.178752   3.415850   1.809  0.08205 . 
cpi_unexp     -8.399197   3.387108  -2.480  0.01995 * 
jobs           2.365612   5.236547   0.452  0.65519   
jobs_unexp    -5.220641   6.292521  -0.830  0.41429   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05558 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7589, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4993 
F-statistic: 2.923 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.003722 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.240800   0.253067   0.952 0.350100    
capital.l1     -1.095351   0.230062  -4.761 6.31e-05 ***
loans.l2        0.007487   0.250513   0.030 0.976387    
capital.l2     -0.398636   0.189219  -2.107 0.044942 *  
loans.l3        1.064135   0.248069   4.290 0.000219 ***
capital.l3     -0.526073   0.190048  -2.768 0.010253 *  
loans.l4        0.358281   0.280151   1.279 0.212235    
capital.l4     -0.196471   0.137492  -1.429 0.164920    
loans.l5       -0.260552   0.277294  -0.940 0.356058    
capital.l5     -0.319000   0.129529  -2.463 0.020727 *  
loans.l6       -0.554411   0.280313  -1.978 0.058637 .  
capital.l6     -0.239065   0.119894  -1.994 0.056742 .  
loans.l7        0.196435   0.293125   0.670 0.508677    
capital.l7     -0.269064   0.129676  -2.075 0.048031 *  
loans.l8        0.278252   0.260319   1.069 0.294945    
capital.l8     -0.414326   0.134936  -3.071 0.004956 ** 
loans.l9        0.659008   0.278355   2.368 0.025632 *  
capital.l9     -0.115211   0.127829  -0.901 0.375711    
loans.l10       0.234790   0.291621   0.805 0.428051    
capital.l10     0.126299   0.113736   1.110 0.276969    
const           0.072491   0.058463   1.240 0.226073    
ten_two        -0.027045   0.020241  -1.336 0.193068    
ten_two_unexp   0.250692   0.083538   3.001 0.005872 ** 
ten            -0.766318   0.323125  -2.372 0.025402 *  
ten_unexp       0.391613   0.345666   1.133 0.267586    
cpi            16.847420   4.575259   3.682 0.001065 ** 
cpi_unexp     -14.083758   4.536761  -3.104 0.004561 ** 
jobs          -21.582784   7.013937  -3.077 0.004877 ** 
jobs_unexp      1.302874   8.428330   0.155 0.878344    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07445 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7961, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5765 
F-statistic: 3.625 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.0007328 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    3.089e-03 -3.398e-05
capital -3.398e-05  5.543e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    1.000000 -0.008211
capital -0.008211  1.000000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 229.568 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.2651 0.03536
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.2591373  0.1329711   1.949   0.0566 .
capital.l1     0.1434455  0.1058937   1.355   0.1813  
const         -0.0027203  0.0147312  -0.185   0.8542  
ten_two       -0.0008555  0.0062488  -0.137   0.8916  
ten_two_unexp -0.0115576  0.0232820  -0.496   0.6217  
ten           -0.0171490  0.1195062  -0.143   0.8864  
ten_unexp      0.0332809  0.1265180   0.263   0.7935  
cpi            0.4330707  1.4329745   0.302   0.7637  
cpi_unexp     -0.2734692  1.3187148  -0.207   0.8365  
jobs           0.6752477  1.4906326   0.453   0.6524  
jobs_unexp    -2.1857113  3.2600390  -0.670   0.5055  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03707 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.108,  Adjusted R-squared: -0.0603 
F-statistic: 0.6417 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.7714 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.012173   0.190832   0.064    0.949
capital.l1    -0.029435   0.151973  -0.194    0.847
const         -0.002059   0.021141  -0.097    0.923
ten_two        0.007499   0.008968   0.836    0.407
ten_two_unexp -0.001818   0.033413  -0.054    0.957
ten            0.007442   0.171508   0.043    0.966
ten_unexp     -0.169986   0.181571  -0.936    0.353
cpi            0.979475   2.056522   0.476    0.636
cpi_unexp      0.350362   1.892543   0.185    0.854
jobs          -0.824447   2.139270  -0.385    0.701
jobs_unexp     1.754153   4.678620   0.375    0.709


Residual standard error: 0.0532 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1137, Adjusted R-squared: -0.05352 
F-statistic:  0.68 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.7379 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0013741 -0.0002422
capital -0.0002422  0.0028302

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1228
capital -0.1228  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 34 
Log Likelihood: 221.291 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.147 1.147 1.079 1.079 0.9884 0.9835 0.9835 0.9512 0.9512 0.9445 0.9445 0.9187 0.8965 0.8965 0.8927 0.8927 0.6595 0.6595 0.5985 0.5985
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.10774    0.27228   0.396  0.70865   
capital.l1      1.41729    1.01830   1.392  0.22272   
loans.l2       -1.17635    0.28683  -4.101  0.00934 **
capital.l2     -0.48681    0.84655  -0.575  0.59016   
loans.l3        0.13615    0.41984   0.324  0.75885   
capital.l3     -0.80803    0.51006  -1.584  0.17400   
loans.l4        0.04759    0.47886   0.099  0.92470   
capital.l4     -0.69020    0.69247  -0.997  0.36466   
loans.l5       -0.16602    0.43300  -0.383  0.71717   
capital.l5      0.39903    0.70456   0.566  0.59563   
loans.l6        0.24940    0.32572   0.766  0.47842   
capital.l6      0.31247    0.43900   0.712  0.50842   
loans.l7        0.33290    0.34381   0.968  0.37738   
capital.l7     -0.43442    0.43599  -0.996  0.36481   
loans.l8        0.24435    0.33142   0.737  0.49406   
capital.l8      0.53030    0.22373   2.370  0.06394 . 
loans.l9       -0.40514    0.34706  -1.167  0.29570   
capital.l9      0.04360    0.25449   0.171  0.87069   
loans.l10       0.22156    0.19692   1.125  0.31164   
capital.l10     0.29317    0.26064   1.125  0.31175   
const           0.19065    0.14204   1.342  0.23723   
ten_two        -0.12829    0.04082  -3.143  0.02559 * 
ten_two_unexp  -0.06504    0.13761  -0.473  0.65641   
ten            -0.38708    0.28050  -1.380  0.22612   
ten_unexp       0.84140    0.37363   2.252  0.07409 . 
cpi            15.43031    9.59461   1.608  0.16870   
cpi_unexp     -11.58758    9.23428  -1.255  0.26499   
jobs            7.29107   22.31832   0.327  0.75714   
jobs_unexp     15.73057   14.40871   1.092  0.32474   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04162 on 5 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9224, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4881 
F-statistic: 2.124 on 28 and 5 DF,  p-value: 0.2053 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.376521   0.102650   3.668  0.01447 * 
capital.l1     -0.027591   0.383899  -0.072  0.94549   
loans.l2        0.238081   0.108137   2.202  0.07893 . 
capital.l2      0.095376   0.319150   0.299  0.77708   
loans.l3       -0.057199   0.158282  -0.361  0.73259   
capital.l3     -0.092452   0.192292  -0.481  0.65097   
loans.l4        0.421673   0.180532   2.336  0.06673 . 
capital.l4      0.053314   0.261061   0.204  0.84623   
loans.l5        0.216549   0.163241   1.327  0.24201   
capital.l5     -0.368437   0.265621  -1.387  0.22407   
loans.l6        0.459551   0.122796   3.742  0.01340 * 
capital.l6     -0.062620   0.165503  -0.378  0.72069   
loans.l7        0.033351   0.129617   0.257  0.80719   
capital.l7      0.328934   0.164368   2.001  0.10178   
loans.l8        0.602366   0.124945   4.821  0.00479 **
capital.l8     -0.081189   0.084348  -0.963  0.37998   
loans.l9       -0.110413   0.130841  -0.844  0.43724   
capital.l9      0.055352   0.095945   0.577  0.58900   
loans.l10       0.307733   0.074240   4.145  0.00895 **
capital.l10    -0.082504   0.098263  -0.840  0.43941   
const          -0.242800   0.053549  -4.534  0.00620 **
ten_two         0.008274   0.015391   0.538  0.61389   
ten_two_unexp   0.178721   0.051881   3.445  0.01834 * 
ten             0.145012   0.105750   1.371  0.22863   
ten_unexp      -0.542725   0.140857  -3.853  0.01196 * 
cpi            -2.331012   3.617177  -0.644  0.54769   
cpi_unexp      -0.289718   3.481331  -0.083  0.93691   
jobs           37.813354   8.414026   4.494  0.00643 **
jobs_unexp    -20.167063   5.432097  -3.713  0.01382 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01569 on 5 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9814, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8771 
F-statistic: 9.411 on 28 and 5 DF,  p-value: 0.009983 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0017320 0.0002723
capital 0.0002723 0.0002462

Correlation matrix of residuals:
        loans capital
loans   1.000   0.417
capital 0.417   1.000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 45 
Log Likelihood: 211.469 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9949 0.9949 0.9343 0.9343 0.9149 0.9149 0.9024 0.9024 0.8726 0.8726 0.8587 0.8587 0.8584 0.8584 0.7979 0.7979 0.736 0.736 0.5334 0.01416
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.0267181  0.2230351  -0.120   0.9061  
capital.l1    -0.1696226  0.1178514  -1.439   0.1693  
loans.l2       0.2705957  0.2291428   1.181   0.2549  
capital.l2    -0.0856826  0.1180101  -0.726   0.4783  
loans.l3       0.2481452  0.2150289   1.154   0.2654  
capital.l3    -0.0355396  0.1055582  -0.337   0.7407  
loans.l4      -0.2245758  0.2379326  -0.944   0.3593  
capital.l4    -0.0116304  0.0952530  -0.122   0.9043  
loans.l5       0.0452709  0.1687697   0.268   0.7919  
capital.l5     0.0169483  0.0599429   0.283   0.7810  
loans.l6       0.3956904  0.2063277   1.918   0.0732 .
capital.l6     0.0597996  0.0581633   1.028   0.3192  
loans.l7       0.1709408  0.1763582   0.969   0.3468  
capital.l7    -0.0051846  0.0537193  -0.097   0.9243  
loans.l8      -0.2285306  0.1505678  -1.518   0.1486  
capital.l8    -0.1140065  0.0533373  -2.137   0.0483 *
loans.l9      -0.0791099  0.1999583  -0.396   0.6976  
capital.l9     0.0189705  0.0588848   0.322   0.7515  
loans.l10     -0.0004579  0.0026060  -0.176   0.8627  
capital.l10    0.0422115  0.0592374   0.713   0.4864  
const          0.0296785  0.0424575   0.699   0.4946  
ten_two       -0.0176760  0.0135814  -1.301   0.2115  
ten_two_unexp  0.0423022  0.0415317   1.019   0.3236  
ten            0.1085879  0.1849289   0.587   0.5653  
ten_unexp     -0.1342152  0.1988782  -0.675   0.5094  
cpi           -0.4753087  1.7357369  -0.274   0.7877  
cpi_unexp      0.2048606  1.6300405   0.126   0.9016  
jobs           5.4542301  3.0117564   1.811   0.0890 .
jobs_unexp    -8.0031062  5.1949990  -1.541   0.1430  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02875 on 16 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8802, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6706 
F-statistic:   4.2 on 28 and 16 DF,  p-value: 0.002024 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.283315   0.404895   0.700 0.494149    
capital.l1     -0.297598   0.213946  -1.391 0.183269    
loans.l2       -0.211147   0.415983  -0.508 0.618668    
capital.l2     -0.490014   0.214234  -2.287 0.036137 *  
loans.l3        0.227049   0.390361   0.582 0.568914    
capital.l3     -0.486122   0.191629  -2.537 0.021982 *  
loans.l4        0.104315   0.431940   0.242 0.812232    
capital.l4     -0.642217   0.172921  -3.714 0.001886 ** 
loans.l5        0.269685   0.306382   0.880 0.391767    
capital.l5     -0.338297   0.108820  -3.109 0.006754 ** 
loans.l6        0.415271   0.374565   1.109 0.283957    
capital.l6     -0.268558   0.105589  -2.543 0.021689 *  
loans.l7       -0.506206   0.320158  -1.581 0.133417    
capital.l7     -0.269851   0.097521  -2.767 0.013742 *  
loans.l8        0.315223   0.273339   1.153 0.265754    
capital.l8     -0.298402   0.096828  -3.082 0.007147 ** 
loans.l9       -0.805501   0.363002  -2.219 0.041294 *  
capital.l9     -0.160478   0.106899  -1.501 0.152776    
loans.l10       0.016456   0.004731   3.478 0.003102 ** 
capital.l10    -0.131398   0.107539  -1.222 0.239457    
const           0.333362   0.077077   4.325 0.000523 ***
ten_two        -0.089000   0.024656  -3.610 0.002350 ** 
ten_two_unexp   0.124962   0.075396   1.657 0.116913    
ten            -0.388194   0.335718  -1.156 0.264529    
ten_unexp       0.493632   0.361041   1.367 0.190451    
cpi             6.770069   3.151036   2.149 0.047327 *  
cpi_unexp     -12.088762   2.959156  -4.085 0.000863 ***
jobs          -19.879172   5.467506  -3.636 0.002224 ** 
jobs_unexp     26.844888   9.430939   2.846 0.011666 *  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05218 on 16 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8404, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5611 
F-statistic: 3.009 on 28 and 16 DF,  p-value: 0.01206 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    8.263e-04 -6.122e-05
capital -6.122e-05  2.723e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.04081
capital -0.04081  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 207.683 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9524 0.9524 0.9423 0.9423 0.9189 0.9189 0.9147 0.9147 0.8904 0.8904 0.8848 0.8848 0.8541 0.8541 0.8325 0.8325 0.7919 0.7919 0.7503 0.371
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.090251   0.165540   0.545  0.59027   
capital.l1     0.134501   0.094308   1.426  0.16571   
loans.l2      -0.397438   0.171049  -2.324  0.02824 * 
capital.l2     0.258938   0.090292   2.868  0.00809 **
loans.l3       0.064038   0.147283   0.435  0.66730   
capital.l3     0.206369   0.098027   2.105  0.04509 * 
loans.l4      -0.218167   0.145016  -1.504  0.14452   
capital.l4     0.179165   0.097803   1.832  0.07845 . 
loans.l5       0.031663   0.137043   0.231  0.81909   
capital.l5     0.066863   0.089495   0.747  0.46170   
loans.l6      -0.328645   0.151505  -2.169  0.03940 * 
capital.l6     0.175303   0.086980   2.015  0.05430 . 
loans.l7      -0.170055   0.146564  -1.160  0.25648   
capital.l7     0.173236   0.098345   1.762  0.08991 . 
loans.l8      -0.032571   0.141903  -0.230  0.82026   
capital.l8     0.305665   0.095395   3.204  0.00357 **
loans.l9       0.057554   0.135819   0.424  0.67523   
capital.l9     0.120942   0.099820   1.212  0.23656   
loans.l10     -0.109219   0.176006  -0.621  0.54030   
capital.l10    0.105537   0.088082   1.198  0.24166   
const         -0.014561   0.023711  -0.614  0.54448   
ten_two        0.004889   0.009025   0.542  0.59267   
ten_two_unexp -0.125101   0.042522  -2.942  0.00677 **
ten            0.107626   0.184763   0.583  0.56524   
ten_unexp     -0.168807   0.189286  -0.892  0.38067   
cpi            3.130377   1.995862   1.568  0.12887   
cpi_unexp     -1.815924   1.687570  -1.076  0.29179   
jobs          -6.683628   2.161275  -3.092  0.00470 **
jobs_unexp    10.366579   5.135224   2.019  0.05394 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04365 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6691, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3127 
F-statistic: 1.877 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.05518 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.398183   0.258508   1.540   0.1356  
capital.l1     -0.119537   0.147271  -0.812   0.4243  
loans.l2       -0.009792   0.267110  -0.037   0.9710  
capital.l2      0.027289   0.141001   0.194   0.8480  
loans.l3       -0.079290   0.229997  -0.345   0.7331  
capital.l3      0.182412   0.153080   1.192   0.2442  
loans.l4        0.127498   0.226456   0.563   0.5782  
capital.l4     -0.296688   0.152729  -1.943   0.0630 .
loans.l5        0.220010   0.214006   1.028   0.3134  
capital.l5     -0.185488   0.139755  -1.327   0.1960  
loans.l6       -0.282980   0.236590  -1.196   0.2425  
capital.l6     -0.283572   0.135827  -2.088   0.0468 *
loans.l7       -0.394401   0.228874  -1.723   0.0967 .
capital.l7      0.142048   0.153575   0.925   0.3635  
loans.l8        0.209443   0.221596   0.945   0.3533  
capital.l8     -0.049150   0.148969  -0.330   0.7441  
loans.l9        0.368205   0.212094   1.736   0.0944 .
capital.l9      0.175077   0.155879   1.123   0.2716  
loans.l10      -0.046337   0.274850  -0.169   0.8674  
capital.l10    -0.240505   0.137549  -1.749   0.0922 .
const           0.045928   0.037027   1.240   0.2259  
ten_two        -0.010746   0.014094  -0.762   0.4527  
ten_two_unexp  -0.151798   0.066403  -2.286   0.0306 *
ten             0.698068   0.288526   2.419   0.0228 *
ten_unexp      -0.713036   0.295589  -2.412   0.0232 *
cpi            -4.447288   3.116736  -1.427   0.1655  
cpi_unexp       6.298185   2.635308   2.390   0.0244 *
jobs            4.387634   3.375046   1.300   0.2050  
jobs_unexp    -18.558090   8.019161  -2.314   0.0288 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06816 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5971, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1632 
F-statistic: 1.376 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.2081 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.001905 0.000894
capital 0.000894 0.004646

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3005
capital 0.3005  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 230.141 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6199 0.1564
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       4.889e-01  1.251e-01   3.907 0.000266 ***
capital.l1     1.542e-01  1.474e-01   1.046 0.300446    
const          7.367e-03  1.986e-02   0.371 0.712147    
ten_two        7.681e-05  8.115e-03   0.009 0.992484    
ten_two_unexp  1.216e-02  3.104e-02   0.392 0.696737    
ten            5.087e-02  1.409e-01   0.361 0.719595    
ten_unexp     -1.051e-01  1.530e-01  -0.687 0.495318    
cpi            1.749e+00  1.837e+00   0.952 0.345363    
cpi_unexp     -2.095e+00  1.664e+00  -1.260 0.213346    
jobs          -7.182e-01  1.908e+00  -0.376 0.708089    
jobs_unexp     4.352e+00  4.034e+00   1.079 0.285546    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04796 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3018, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1701 
F-statistic: 2.291 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0256 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.282368   0.105600   2.674  0.00994 **
capital.l1     0.287375   0.124439   2.309  0.02485 * 
const         -0.007085   0.016762  -0.423  0.67422   
ten_two        0.006463   0.006849   0.944  0.34961   
ten_two_unexp  0.008709   0.026198   0.332  0.74088   
ten            0.226299   0.118950   1.902  0.06255 . 
ten_unexp     -0.219050   0.129148  -1.696  0.09573 . 
cpi           -0.157407   1.550324  -0.102  0.91951   
cpi_unexp      0.664962   1.404099   0.474  0.63774   
jobs           1.776731   1.610155   1.103  0.27482   
jobs_unexp    -4.588984   3.404738  -1.348  0.18345   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04048 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2928, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1594 
F-statistic: 2.195 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.03238 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   2.300e-03 7.836e-05
capital 7.836e-05 1.638e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.04037
capital 0.04037 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 31 
Log Likelihood: 186.706 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.034 1.034 1.019 1.019 0.9856 0.9856 0.9749 0.9749 0.9691 0.9647 0.9647 0.9546 0.9546 0.9486 0.9458 0.9458 0.8742 0.8742 0.737 0.737
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.77712    0.52055   1.493    0.274
capital.l1     0.69152    0.71314   0.970    0.434
loans.l2      -0.45944    0.47804  -0.961    0.438
capital.l2     1.40853    0.68003   2.071    0.174
loans.l3       0.92413    0.40352   2.290    0.149
capital.l3     0.20458    0.72782   0.281    0.805
loans.l4      -0.30930    0.41339  -0.748    0.532
capital.l4     1.43412    0.76352   1.878    0.201
loans.l5       0.57722    0.40061   1.441    0.286
capital.l5     0.59749    0.62122   0.962    0.438
loans.l6      -0.38548    0.31334  -1.230    0.344
capital.l6     1.20427    0.56723   2.123    0.168
loans.l7       0.70292    0.49852   1.410    0.294
capital.l7    -0.49206    0.59704  -0.824    0.496
loans.l8       1.14197    0.71728   1.592    0.252
capital.l8     0.77294    0.59886   1.291    0.326
loans.l9       0.07874    0.69895   0.113    0.921
capital.l9    -0.08210    0.38833  -0.211    0.852
loans.l10      0.05742    0.50772   0.113    0.920
capital.l10    0.77456    0.48671   1.591    0.252
const         -0.08513    0.11073  -0.769    0.522
ten_two       -0.12685    0.08027  -1.580    0.255
ten_two_unexp  0.01985    0.11966   0.166    0.883
ten            0.10027    0.47080   0.213    0.851
ten_unexp      0.04458    0.49975   0.089    0.937
cpi            2.07647    9.90819   0.210    0.853
cpi_unexp     -5.40674   10.30004  -0.525    0.652
jobs          11.43048   15.99487   0.715    0.549
jobs_unexp    17.79181   14.89497   1.194    0.355


Residual standard error: 0.04741 on 2 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9255, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1178 
F-statistic: 0.8871 on 28 and 2 DF,  p-value: 0.6618 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.142742   0.524182   0.272    0.811
capital.l1     0.156022   0.718113   0.217    0.848
loans.l2      -0.171890   0.481371  -0.357    0.755
capital.l2    -0.267279   0.684773  -0.390    0.734
loans.l3      -0.142239   0.406331  -0.350    0.760
capital.l3    -0.735658   0.732894  -1.004    0.421
loans.l4       0.038442   0.416275   0.092    0.935
capital.l4    -0.287023   0.768841  -0.373    0.745
loans.l5      -0.049772   0.403401  -0.123    0.913
capital.l5    -0.083788   0.625548  -0.134    0.906
loans.l6      -0.768872   0.315526  -2.437    0.135
capital.l6    -0.414861   0.571189  -0.726    0.543
loans.l7       0.018891   0.501996   0.038    0.973
capital.l7    -0.279148   0.601199  -0.464    0.688
loans.l8       0.172971   0.722281   0.239    0.833
capital.l8    -0.010225   0.603037  -0.017    0.988
loans.l9      -0.582247   0.703822  -0.827    0.495
capital.l9    -0.073908   0.391040  -0.189    0.868
loans.l10      0.396192   0.511256   0.775    0.519
capital.l10    0.175228   0.490100   0.358    0.755
const          0.006891   0.111505   0.062    0.956
ten_two        0.045463   0.080834   0.562    0.630
ten_two_unexp -0.018323   0.120496  -0.152    0.893
ten           -0.067473   0.474086  -0.142    0.900
ten_unexp      0.057809   0.503240   0.115    0.919
cpi            6.586252   9.977280   0.660    0.577
cpi_unexp     -6.671443  10.371865  -0.643    0.586
jobs          -1.556083  16.106401  -0.097    0.932
jobs_unexp     5.263804  14.998832   0.351    0.759


Residual standard error: 0.04774 on 2 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9091, Adjusted R-squared: -0.3634 
F-statistic: 0.7144 on 28 and 2 DF,  p-value: 0.7366 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0022479 -0.0005375
capital -0.0005375  0.0022794

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2374
capital -0.2374  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 34 
Log Likelihood: 133.491 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.073 1.073 0.9838 0.9838 0.9818 0.9818 0.9699 0.9699 0.9353 0.9255 0.9255 0.9231 0.9231 0.8712 0.8712 0.8553 0.8553 0.6415
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.47542    0.29260   1.625   0.1482  
capital.l1      0.28877    0.50823   0.568   0.5877  
loans.l2        0.37153    0.30530   1.217   0.2631  
capital.l2     -0.46835    0.45415  -1.031   0.3367  
loans.l3       -0.13965    0.29449  -0.474   0.6498  
capital.l3      0.65552    0.58869   1.114   0.3023  
loans.l4       -0.38500    0.39885  -0.965   0.3666  
capital.l4     -0.63909    0.52122  -1.226   0.2598  
loans.l5        0.25976    0.38393   0.677   0.5204  
capital.l5      0.90130    0.51635   1.746   0.1244  
loans.l6       -0.33741    0.33065  -1.020   0.3415  
capital.l6     -0.58584    0.59734  -0.981   0.3594  
loans.l7       -0.64214    0.33957  -1.891   0.1005  
capital.l7      0.41418    0.58982   0.702   0.5052  
loans.l8        0.15618    0.40178   0.389   0.7090  
capital.l8     -0.66970    0.52741  -1.270   0.2447  
loans.l9        0.22345    0.41569   0.538   0.6075  
capital.l9      0.87821    0.54774   1.603   0.1529  
const          -0.13105    0.18208  -0.720   0.4950  
ten_two         0.04564    0.10780   0.423   0.6848  
ten_two_unexp   0.79074    0.35129   2.251   0.0591 .
ten             0.36353    0.51319   0.708   0.5016  
ten_unexp      -1.41574    0.73850  -1.917   0.0968 .
cpi           -11.22423   11.52936  -0.974   0.3627  
cpi_unexp       3.62691    7.99002   0.454   0.6636  
jobs           10.42841    7.89937   1.320   0.2283  
jobs_unexp    -21.49552   13.67762  -1.572   0.1600  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.09604 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8487, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2865 
F-statistic:  1.51 on 26 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.2987 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.298667   0.216543   1.379   0.2103  
capital.l1     -0.212859   0.376123  -0.566   0.5891  
loans.l2        0.247026   0.225937   1.093   0.3104  
capital.l2     -0.609609   0.336099  -1.814   0.1126  
loans.l3        0.289081   0.217938   1.326   0.2263  
capital.l3     -0.486267   0.435663  -1.116   0.3012  
loans.l4        0.173209   0.295170   0.587   0.5758  
capital.l4      0.042294   0.385737   0.110   0.9158  
loans.l5        0.338938   0.284132   1.193   0.2718  
capital.l5     -0.690915   0.382128  -1.808   0.1135  
loans.l6        0.322999   0.244699   1.320   0.2284  
capital.l6     -0.359779   0.442070  -0.814   0.4425  
loans.l7        0.154564   0.251301   0.615   0.5580  
capital.l7     -0.293142   0.436500  -0.672   0.5234  
loans.l8        0.594534   0.297339   2.000   0.0857 .
capital.l8     -0.092104   0.390314  -0.236   0.8202  
loans.l9        0.350868   0.307632   1.141   0.2916  
capital.l9      0.279678   0.405357   0.690   0.5124  
const           0.189079   0.134752   1.403   0.2033  
ten_two        -0.129070   0.079778  -1.618   0.1497  
ten_two_unexp  -0.001585   0.259977  -0.006   0.9953  
ten             0.571785   0.379793   1.506   0.1759  
ten_unexp      -0.558841   0.546537  -1.023   0.3406  
cpi            -0.848609   8.532417  -0.099   0.9236  
cpi_unexp       3.454832   5.913097   0.584   0.5774  
jobs            8.199198   5.846007   1.403   0.2035  
jobs_unexp    -11.794338  10.122259  -1.165   0.2821  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07107 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8443, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2662 
F-statistic:  1.46 on 26 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.3163 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.009223 -0.003891
capital -0.003891  0.005051

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.5701
capital -0.5701  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 178.784 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.158 0.02726
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.082207   0.183337  -0.448    0.656
capital.l1     0.086961   0.172708   0.504    0.617
const          0.023877   0.030054   0.794    0.430
ten_two       -0.002788   0.012487  -0.223    0.824
ten_two_unexp  0.047083   0.047250   0.996    0.324
ten           -0.231342   0.222789  -1.038    0.304
ten_unexp      0.253081   0.234757   1.078    0.286
cpi            1.943836   2.843871   0.684    0.497
cpi_unexp      0.144829   2.631421   0.055    0.956
jobs          -0.037280   2.961360  -0.013    0.990
jobs_unexp    -1.984988   6.651120  -0.298    0.767


Residual standard error: 0.07445 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.08669,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.08564 
F-statistic: 0.503 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.8803 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.095399   0.185877   0.513    0.610
capital.l1    -0.048523   0.175101  -0.277    0.783
const          0.004431   0.030470   0.145    0.885
ten_two        0.012595   0.012660   0.995    0.324
ten_two_unexp  0.012793   0.047904   0.267    0.790
ten            0.321047   0.225875   1.421    0.161
ten_unexp     -0.329343   0.238009  -1.384    0.172
cpi            0.021727   2.883271   0.008    0.994
cpi_unexp      1.607591   2.667877   0.603    0.549
jobs           2.454327   3.002387   0.817    0.417
jobs_unexp    -7.602920   6.743267  -1.127    0.265


Residual standard error: 0.07548 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.09991,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.06992 
F-statistic: 0.5883 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.8162 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.005542 0.003584
capital 0.003584 0.005697

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6379
capital 0.6379  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 375.008 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8972 0.8972 0.894 0.894 0.8468 0.8468 0.8053 0.8053 0.772 0.772 0.5695 0.5695
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.432708   0.166993  -2.591   0.0135 *
capital.l1    -2.192429   1.462151  -1.499   0.1420  
loans.l2      -0.226957   0.177133  -1.281   0.2079  
capital.l2     0.223070   1.416147   0.158   0.8757  
loans.l3       0.031252   0.168002   0.186   0.8534  
capital.l3     0.376544   1.518015   0.248   0.8054  
loans.l4       0.139952   0.166568   0.840   0.4060  
capital.l4     1.054258   1.316421   0.801   0.4282  
loans.l5       0.124095   0.177913   0.698   0.4897  
capital.l5     0.519795   1.390386   0.374   0.7106  
loans.l6      -0.168799   0.159931  -1.055   0.2979  
capital.l6    -0.581978   1.426280  -0.408   0.6855  
const          0.039968   0.026306   1.519   0.1370  
ten_two       -0.013747   0.008165  -1.684   0.1005  
ten_two_unexp  0.003145   0.031070   0.101   0.9199  
ten           -0.161830   0.139767  -1.158   0.2541  
ten_unexp      0.099308   0.161194   0.616   0.5415  
cpi            1.419617   1.742933   0.814   0.4204  
cpi_unexp     -1.784373   1.811659  -0.985   0.3309  
jobs          -5.320099   2.487644  -2.139   0.0390 *
jobs_unexp     2.403146   4.187464   0.574   0.5694  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04113 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4362, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1394 
F-statistic:  1.47 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.1505 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.0185463  0.0156594   1.184  0.24363   
capital.l1     0.1277038  0.1371101   0.931  0.35753   
loans.l2      -0.0044980  0.0166103  -0.271  0.78801   
capital.l2     0.2160032  0.1327962   1.627  0.11209   
loans.l3      -0.0128366  0.0157540  -0.815  0.42026   
capital.l3     0.2140439  0.1423486   1.504  0.14094   
loans.l4      -0.0148109  0.0156195  -0.948  0.34900   
capital.l4     0.2973645  0.1234446   2.409  0.02096 * 
loans.l5      -0.0445735  0.0166834  -2.672  0.01105 * 
capital.l5    -0.2492948  0.1303804  -1.912  0.06343 . 
loans.l6       0.0078770  0.0149972   0.525  0.60248   
capital.l6    -0.3154392  0.1337464  -2.358  0.02360 * 
const          0.0048714  0.0024668   1.975  0.05559 . 
ten_two        0.0005377  0.0007657   0.702  0.48683   
ten_two_unexp -0.0010334  0.0029135  -0.355  0.72479   
ten           -0.0142918  0.0131064  -1.090  0.28238   
ten_unexp      0.0113897  0.0151156   0.754  0.45579   
cpi            0.4600428  0.1634398   2.815  0.00769 **
cpi_unexp     -0.5199524  0.1698844  -3.061  0.00404 **
jobs          -0.1837686  0.2332735  -0.788  0.43571   
jobs_unexp     0.0857191  0.3926704   0.218  0.82837   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.003857 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5967, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3844 
F-statistic: 2.811 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.002986 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    1.692e-03 -1.581e-05
capital -1.581e-05  1.487e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.0997
capital -0.0997  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 281.629 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9078 0.9078 0.8363 0.8363 0.8294 0.8294 0.8135 0.8135 0.7628 0.7628 0.3011 0.217
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.059437   0.144366  -0.412   0.6829  
capital.l1     0.253922   0.139185   1.824   0.0760 .
loans.l2       0.024122   0.146057   0.165   0.8697  
capital.l2    -0.155328   0.140509  -1.105   0.2759  
loans.l3      -0.322844   0.147581  -2.188   0.0349 *
capital.l3     0.170538   0.159224   1.071   0.2909  
loans.l4       0.258918   0.139224   1.860   0.0707 .
capital.l4     0.216317   0.143112   1.512   0.1389  
loans.l5      -0.063455   0.139415  -0.455   0.6516  
capital.l5     0.066304   0.155154   0.427   0.6715  
loans.l6      -0.319460   0.142480  -2.242   0.0309 *
capital.l6     0.223386   0.140863   1.586   0.1211  
const         -0.006184   0.011016  -0.561   0.5778  
ten_two        0.004154   0.004915   0.845   0.4033  
ten_two_unexp  0.013284   0.018360   0.724   0.4738  
ten            0.127856   0.091569   1.396   0.1707  
ten_unexp     -0.157988   0.095552  -1.653   0.1065  
cpi            2.278493   1.038005   2.195   0.0343 *
cpi_unexp     -1.820547   0.982623  -1.853   0.0717 .
jobs          -3.216821   1.239882  -2.594   0.0134 *
jobs_unexp     4.083068   2.352439   1.736   0.0907 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02608 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4764, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2009 
F-statistic: 1.729 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.07197 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.155184   0.163517  -0.949   0.3486  
capital.l1    -0.264387   0.157649  -1.677   0.1017  
loans.l2      -0.121060   0.165433  -0.732   0.4688  
capital.l2    -0.381801   0.159149  -2.399   0.0215 *
loans.l3       0.030766   0.167159   0.184   0.8550  
capital.l3    -0.301744   0.180346  -1.673   0.1025  
loans.l4      -0.101221   0.157693  -0.642   0.5248  
capital.l4    -0.194176   0.162097  -1.198   0.2384  
loans.l5       0.022055   0.157910   0.140   0.8897  
capital.l5    -0.241393   0.175737  -1.374   0.1776  
loans.l6      -0.139402   0.161381  -0.864   0.3931  
capital.l6     0.066240   0.159550   0.415   0.6804  
const          0.006082   0.012478   0.487   0.6288  
ten_two        0.002518   0.005567   0.452   0.6536  
ten_two_unexp -0.007766   0.020796  -0.373   0.7109  
ten           -0.102616   0.103716  -0.989   0.3287  
ten_unexp     -0.002694   0.108228  -0.025   0.9803  
cpi            0.225680   1.175706   0.192   0.8488  
cpi_unexp      0.415826   1.112977   0.374   0.7108  
jobs          -0.508967   1.404364  -0.362   0.7190  
jobs_unexp     2.919215   2.664511   1.096   0.2802  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02954 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4323, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1335 
F-statistic: 1.447 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.1603 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    6.804e-04 -5.963e-05
capital -5.963e-05  8.729e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.07738
capital -0.07738  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 84.221 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.05463 0.03996
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.05727    0.01059   5.410 2.46e-06 ***
capital.l1    -0.17233    0.17569  -0.981    0.332    
const          0.12462    0.07652   1.629    0.111    
ten_two       -0.01893    0.03237  -0.585    0.562    
ten_two_unexp -0.03264    0.12110  -0.270    0.789    
ten           -0.25510    0.56638  -0.450    0.655    
ten_unexp      0.14543    0.60956   0.239    0.813    
cpi           -5.30421    6.99900  -0.758    0.453    
cpi_unexp      6.68941    6.40841   1.044    0.302    
jobs           2.89196    7.72387   0.374    0.710    
jobs_unexp     5.97435   16.25574   0.368    0.715    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.182 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4392, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3118 
F-statistic: 3.446 on 10 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.002087 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.001493   0.008731   0.171   0.8650  
capital.l1    -0.042602   0.144896  -0.294   0.7701  
const          0.115005   0.063104   1.822   0.0752 .
ten_two       -0.039697   0.026700  -1.487   0.1442  
ten_two_unexp  0.089987   0.099873   0.901   0.3725  
ten           -0.050447   0.467100  -0.108   0.9145  
ten_unexp     -0.230520   0.502708  -0.459   0.6488  
cpi           -6.285278   5.772107  -1.089   0.2821  
cpi_unexp      9.605613   5.285040   1.818   0.0760 .
jobs           2.806055   6.369908   0.441   0.6617  
jobs_unexp     1.256676  13.406176   0.094   0.9257  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1501 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1374, Adjusted R-squared: -0.05864 
F-statistic: 0.7009 on 10 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.7183 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   0.03313 0.02227
capital 0.02227 0.02253

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.8151
capital 0.8151  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 49 
Log Likelihood: 98.971 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9879 0.9879 0.9847 0.9847 0.9545 0.9545 0.954 0.954 0.8489 0.8489 0.8168 0.8168 0.7429 0.7429 0.6955 0.6955 0.4188 0.205
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.255752   0.242786  -1.053  0.30359   
capital.l1    -0.030102   0.187408  -0.161  0.87386   
loans.l2      -0.099278   0.258134  -0.385  0.70423   
capital.l2    -0.176581   0.189389  -0.932  0.36127   
loans.l3       0.088468   0.232988   0.380  0.70780   
capital.l3    -0.214574   0.188256  -1.140  0.26663   
loans.l4       0.663534   0.232111   2.859  0.00913 **
capital.l4    -0.359693   0.210636  -1.708  0.10178   
loans.l5       0.346575   0.325442   1.065  0.29845   
capital.l5    -0.379391   0.184785  -2.053  0.05214 . 
loans.l6       0.097166   0.289291   0.336  0.74015   
capital.l6    -0.238933   0.178494  -1.339  0.19437   
loans.l7       0.002642   0.302210   0.009  0.99310   
capital.l7    -0.099690   0.168778  -0.591  0.56077   
loans.l8      -0.654334   0.283673  -2.307  0.03087 * 
capital.l8     0.121207   0.136721   0.887  0.38492   
loans.l9       0.103716   0.064059   1.619  0.11968   
capital.l9     0.047043   0.115349   0.408  0.68734   
const          0.323364   0.178096   1.816  0.08308 . 
ten_two       -0.132197   0.072189  -1.831  0.08064 . 
ten_two_unexp  0.118513   0.132283   0.896  0.38000   
ten            0.015324   0.519902   0.029  0.97675   
ten_unexp      0.078867   0.628822   0.125  0.90133   
cpi           -1.577053   7.190067  -0.219  0.82841   
cpi_unexp      2.777569   5.781231   0.480  0.63565   
jobs           2.330677   8.763744   0.266  0.79276   
jobs_unexp     3.934759  15.239887   0.258  0.79866   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1232 on 22 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5373, Adjusted R-squared: -0.009497 
F-statistic: 0.9826 on 26 and 22 DF,  p-value: 0.5214 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.453578   0.309009  -1.468   0.1563  
capital.l1     -0.200015   0.238526  -0.839   0.4107  
loans.l2       -0.406063   0.328543  -1.236   0.2295  
capital.l2     -0.156004   0.241047  -0.647   0.5242  
loans.l3        0.021545   0.296538   0.073   0.9427  
capital.l3     -0.334769   0.239605  -1.397   0.1763  
loans.l4        0.384297   0.295422   1.301   0.2068  
capital.l4     -0.413074   0.268089  -1.541   0.1376  
loans.l5        0.976663   0.414210   2.358   0.0277 *
capital.l5     -0.522106   0.235187  -2.220   0.0370 *
loans.l6        0.459388   0.368199   1.248   0.2253  
capital.l6     -0.171795   0.227180  -0.756   0.4575  
loans.l7       -0.057434   0.384641  -0.149   0.8827  
capital.l7     -0.162174   0.214815  -0.755   0.4583  
loans.l8       -0.117107   0.361048  -0.324   0.7487  
capital.l8     -0.036240   0.174014  -0.208   0.8369  
loans.l9       -0.007314   0.081531  -0.090   0.9293  
capital.l9      0.080032   0.146812   0.545   0.5911  
const           0.218991   0.226673   0.966   0.3445  
ten_two        -0.100513   0.091879  -1.094   0.2858  
ten_two_unexp   0.079701   0.168365   0.473   0.6406  
ten             1.309880   0.661711   1.980   0.0604 .
ten_unexp      -0.752322   0.800340  -0.940   0.3574  
cpi           -11.634707   9.151236  -1.271   0.2169  
cpi_unexp       8.544433   7.358124   1.161   0.2580  
jobs           26.013198  11.154151   2.332   0.0292 *
jobs_unexp    -46.365429  19.396731  -2.390   0.0258 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1568 on 22 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6579, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2536 
F-statistic: 1.627 on 26 and 22 DF,  p-value: 0.1248 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.015180 0.008597
capital 0.008597 0.024590

Correlation matrix of residuals:
        loans capital
loans   1.000   0.445
capital 0.445   1.000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 65.322 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.5014 0.3004 0.09904 0.08552
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.180044   0.128412   1.402   0.1671  
capital.l1     0.010774   0.011815   0.912   0.3662  
loans.l2       0.268825   0.125555   2.141   0.0372 *
capital.l2     0.030936   0.012178   2.540   0.0142 *
const          0.005251   0.023034   0.228   0.8206  
ten_two       -0.007871   0.008557  -0.920   0.3621  
ten_two_unexp -0.006166   0.031668  -0.195   0.8464  
ten            0.157387   0.141264   1.114   0.2705  
ten_unexp     -0.171142   0.154955  -1.104   0.2747  
cpi            2.870866   1.815354   1.581   0.1201  
cpi_unexp     -0.203870   1.656820  -0.123   0.9026  
jobs          -0.684533   2.109752  -0.324   0.7469  
jobs_unexp    -3.830899   4.061786  -0.943   0.3501  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04772 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3474, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1908 
F-statistic: 2.218 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.02486 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -0.199278   1.495186  -0.133   0.8945  
capital.l1      0.007448   0.137566   0.054   0.9570  
loans.l2       -0.940634   1.461925  -0.643   0.5229  
capital.l2     -0.103501   0.141794  -0.730   0.4688  
const           0.058888   0.268205   0.220   0.8271  
ten_two         0.055581   0.099637   0.558   0.5794  
ten_two_unexp  -0.637235   0.368731  -1.728   0.0901 .
ten             0.223392   1.644836   0.136   0.8925  
ten_unexp       0.236109   1.804246   0.131   0.8964  
cpi             6.399707  21.137425   0.303   0.7633  
cpi_unexp     -13.341128  19.291505  -0.692   0.4924  
jobs           -5.451069  24.565300  -0.222   0.8253  
jobs_unexp     29.208097  47.294186   0.618   0.5397  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.5556 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.09112,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.127 
F-statistic: 0.4177 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.9495 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.002277 0.004341
capital 0.004341 0.308733

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1637
capital 0.1637  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 63 
Log Likelihood: 113.556 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.4696 0.4696 0.3938 0.3938
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.121070   0.362348  -0.334    0.740
capital.l1     0.085671   0.410353   0.209    0.835
loans.l2      -0.189229   0.361072  -0.524    0.603
capital.l2     0.150852   0.415889   0.363    0.718
const          0.043438   0.083792   0.518    0.606
ten_two        0.001609   0.035360   0.045    0.964
ten_two_unexp -0.021400   0.133364  -0.160    0.873
ten           -0.583732   0.632613  -0.923    0.361
ten_unexp      0.193757   0.685797   0.283    0.779
cpi            3.739877   7.899808   0.473    0.638
cpi_unexp     -1.590598   7.129092  -0.223    0.824
jobs           5.619257   8.722290   0.644    0.522
jobs_unexp     5.544191  17.660233   0.314    0.755


Residual standard error: 0.2076 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.09233,    Adjusted R-squared: -0.1255 
F-statistic: 0.4238 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.9467 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.11332    0.30997  -0.366    0.716
capital.l1     0.11125    0.35104   0.317    0.753
loans.l2      -0.05806    0.30888  -0.188    0.852
capital.l2    -0.13445    0.35578  -0.378    0.707
const          0.01719    0.07168   0.240    0.811
ten_two        0.01345    0.03025   0.445    0.659
ten_two_unexp -0.05489    0.11409  -0.481    0.633
ten           -0.29753    0.54117  -0.550    0.585
ten_unexp     -0.00410    0.58667  -0.007    0.994
cpi            7.24405    6.75794   1.072    0.289
cpi_unexp     -8.63431    6.09862  -1.416    0.163
jobs           1.56732    7.46153   0.210    0.834
jobs_unexp     4.11177   15.10755   0.272    0.787


Residual standard error: 0.1776 on 50 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1348, Adjusted R-squared: -0.0729 
F-statistic: 0.6489 on 12 and 50 DF,  p-value: 0.79 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   0.04308 0.03479
capital 0.03479 0.03153

Correlation matrix of residuals:
        loans capital
loans   1.000   0.944
capital 0.944   1.000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 62 
Log Likelihood: 160.301 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7634 0.6535 0.6535 0.4242 0.2868 0.2868
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.11475    0.15780  -0.727   0.4707  
capital.l1     0.11094    0.13308   0.834   0.4087  
loans.l2      -0.10597    0.13365  -0.793   0.4318  
capital.l2     0.38134    0.14563   2.619   0.0118 *
loans.l3       0.12626    0.14395   0.877   0.3849  
capital.l3     0.19613    0.14476   1.355   0.1819  
const          0.05228    0.03267   1.600   0.1163  
ten_two       -0.02959    0.01402  -2.110   0.0402 *
ten_two_unexp  0.04584    0.05014   0.914   0.3652  
ten            0.03565    0.23563   0.151   0.8804  
ten_unexp     -0.16957    0.25531  -0.664   0.5098  
cpi            2.54870    3.03508   0.840   0.4053  
cpi_unexp     -0.47506    2.74142  -0.173   0.8632  
jobs          -1.14735    3.28675  -0.349   0.7286  
jobs_unexp    -1.92264    6.51547  -0.295   0.7692  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07336 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3516, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1584 
F-statistic:  1.82 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.06357 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.44878    0.17327   2.590   0.0127 *
capital.l1     0.22087    0.14613   1.511   0.1374  
loans.l2      -0.05379    0.14675  -0.367   0.7156  
capital.l2     0.08981    0.15991   0.562   0.5770  
loans.l3       0.02807    0.15807   0.178   0.8598  
capital.l3    -0.04648    0.15895  -0.292   0.7713  
const         -0.03155    0.03588  -0.879   0.3836  
ten_two        0.01640    0.01540   1.065   0.2922  
ten_two_unexp -0.03674    0.05506  -0.667   0.5078  
ten            0.36165    0.25874   1.398   0.1688  
ten_unexp     -0.37328    0.28035  -1.331   0.1894  
cpi           -1.47026    3.33270  -0.441   0.6611  
cpi_unexp      0.61536    3.01024   0.204   0.8389  
jobs           3.51949    3.60905   0.975   0.3345  
jobs_unexp    -9.11303    7.15438  -1.274   0.2090  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08055 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3064, Adjusted R-squared: 0.09975 
F-statistic: 1.483 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.155 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.005381 0.001021
capital 0.001021 0.006489

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1728
capital 0.1728  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 53 
Log Likelihood: 177.405 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9049 0.9049 0.886 0.886 0.8273 0.815 0.8135 0.8135 0.7619 0.7619 0.7456 0.7456 0.7311 0.7311 0.3307 0.1357
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.14997    0.19450   0.771   0.4471  
capital.l1    -0.08719    0.15092  -0.578   0.5681  
loans.l2      -0.10341    0.17617  -0.587   0.5619  
capital.l2    -0.02757    0.14248  -0.193   0.8480  
loans.l3       0.08649    0.17551   0.493   0.6260  
capital.l3     0.02531    0.06727   0.376   0.7096  
loans.l4      -0.11583    0.16695  -0.694   0.4935  
capital.l4     0.07739    0.06027   1.284   0.2097  
loans.l5       0.07847    0.18373   0.427   0.6726  
capital.l5     0.09407    0.05986   1.571   0.1273  
loans.l6       0.05391    0.18073   0.298   0.7677  
capital.l6     0.14879    0.05667   2.626   0.0139 *
loans.l7      -0.08985    0.16760  -0.536   0.5961  
capital.l7     0.01893    0.06914   0.274   0.7862  
loans.l8       0.05585    0.04784   1.167   0.2529  
capital.l8     0.14369    0.05972   2.406   0.0230 *
const          0.03158    0.04033   0.783   0.4402  
ten_two       -0.01424    0.01719  -0.828   0.4146  
ten_two_unexp  0.01803    0.04715   0.382   0.7051  
ten           -0.13783    0.20602  -0.669   0.5090  
ten_unexp      0.16837    0.23158   0.727   0.4732  
cpi           -5.46228    2.87117  -1.902   0.0674 .
cpi_unexp      3.61316    2.50105   1.445   0.1597  
jobs           7.56194    3.47049   2.179   0.0379 *
jobs_unexp    -3.73787    6.82244  -0.548   0.5881  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05577 on 28 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7307, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4998 
F-statistic: 3.165 on 24 and 28 DF,  p-value: 0.002012 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.095596   0.245751  -0.389   0.7002  
capital.l1    -0.223319   0.190688  -1.171   0.2514  
loans.l2       0.273661   0.222585   1.229   0.2291  
capital.l2     0.092649   0.180020   0.515   0.6108  
loans.l3       0.194902   0.221751   0.879   0.3869  
capital.l3    -0.069656   0.084999  -0.819   0.4194  
loans.l4       0.029107   0.210936   0.138   0.8912  
capital.l4    -0.086664   0.076148  -1.138   0.2647  
loans.l5       0.167769   0.232134   0.723   0.4758  
capital.l5    -0.066690   0.075637  -0.882   0.3854  
loans.l6       0.254661   0.228354   1.115   0.2742  
capital.l6    -0.037196   0.071596  -0.520   0.6075  
loans.l7      -0.106274   0.211763  -0.502   0.6197  
capital.l7    -0.143198   0.087363  -1.639   0.1124  
loans.l8      -0.038405   0.060439  -0.635   0.5303  
capital.l8    -0.138578   0.075455  -1.837   0.0769 .
const         -0.019193   0.050955  -0.377   0.7093  
ten_two       -0.004599   0.021725  -0.212   0.8339  
ten_two_unexp -0.011561   0.059567  -0.194   0.8475  
ten            0.091288   0.260308   0.351   0.7284  
ten_unexp     -0.153909   0.292598  -0.526   0.6030  
cpi            7.169429   3.627664   1.976   0.0580 .
cpi_unexp     -5.017480   3.160022  -1.588   0.1236  
jobs           3.382044   4.384898   0.771   0.4470  
jobs_unexp    -3.191026   8.620020  -0.370   0.7140  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.07047 on 28 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4372, Adjusted R-squared: -0.04528 
F-statistic: 0.9061 on 24 and 28 DF,  p-value: 0.5939 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
             loans    capital
loans    0.0031106 -0.0004949
capital -0.0004949  0.0049657

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1259
capital -0.1259  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 238.486 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9257 0.9257 0.9144 0.9144 0.9143 0.9143 0.907 0.907 0.8989 0.8989 0.8859 0.8859 0.8811 0.8811 0.8798 0.8798 0.3504 0.3504
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       -0.041885   0.162243  -0.258   0.7981    
capital.l1      0.086048   0.358603   0.240   0.8121    
loans.l2        0.164076   0.126884   1.293   0.2062    
capital.l2     -0.672432   0.335864  -2.002   0.0547 .  
loans.l3       -0.165412   0.127165  -1.301   0.2036    
capital.l3      0.114684   0.333230   0.344   0.7332    
loans.l4        0.118834   0.113889   1.043   0.3054    
capital.l4      0.121755   0.317073   0.384   0.7038    
loans.l5        0.148862   0.133709   1.113   0.2747    
capital.l5      0.448962   0.324181   1.385   0.1766    
loans.l6       -0.161314   0.122124  -1.321   0.1969    
capital.l6      0.679549   0.313005   2.171   0.0383 *  
loans.l7       -0.035953   0.114200  -0.315   0.7551    
capital.l7      0.169608   0.298182   0.569   0.5739    
loans.l8        0.121511   0.104099   1.167   0.2526    
capital.l8     -1.530870   0.309511  -4.946 2.95e-05 ***
loans.l9       -0.129866   0.102467  -1.267   0.2151    
capital.l9     -0.556548   0.419449  -1.327   0.1949    
const          -0.022112   0.026557  -0.833   0.4118    
ten_two        -0.001679   0.012690  -0.132   0.8957    
ten_two_unexp  -0.035853   0.048753  -0.735   0.4680    
ten            -0.090367   0.219558  -0.412   0.6837    
ten_unexp       0.041297   0.240958   0.171   0.8651    
cpi            -2.519185   3.345837  -0.753   0.4576    
cpi_unexp       5.317475   2.827175   1.881   0.0701 .  
jobs            5.542698   4.399719   1.260   0.2178    
jobs_unexp    -13.361434   7.259394  -1.841   0.0759 .  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05657 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6362, Adjusted R-squared:  0.31 
F-statistic:  1.95 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.04141 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.010794   0.082854  -0.130  0.89725   
capital.l1    -0.241794   0.183132  -1.320  0.19705   
loans.l2       0.090265   0.064797   1.393  0.17420   
capital.l2    -0.090525   0.171519  -0.528  0.60167   
loans.l3       0.044233   0.064941   0.681  0.50119   
capital.l3     0.005577   0.170174   0.033  0.97408   
loans.l4       0.092803   0.058161   1.596  0.12141   
capital.l4    -0.148276   0.161923  -0.916  0.36737   
loans.l5       0.041603   0.068283   0.609  0.54708   
capital.l5    -0.258675   0.165553  -1.562  0.12902   
loans.l6      -0.020358   0.062366  -0.326  0.74644   
capital.l6    -0.003885   0.159846  -0.024  0.98078   
loans.l7       0.002387   0.058320   0.041  0.96763   
capital.l7    -0.184605   0.152276  -1.212  0.23518   
loans.l8       0.120365   0.053161   2.264  0.03122 * 
capital.l8    -0.251247   0.158061  -1.590  0.12278   
loans.l9      -0.001276   0.052328  -0.024  0.98071   
capital.l9    -0.182958   0.214205  -0.854  0.40004   
const         -0.008140   0.013562  -0.600  0.55302   
ten_two       -0.018250   0.006481  -2.816  0.00865 **
ten_two_unexp -0.001945   0.024897  -0.078  0.93826   
ten            0.103673   0.112124   0.925  0.36279   
ten_unexp     -0.088637   0.123052  -0.720  0.47710   
cpi            3.855360   1.708655   2.256  0.03176 * 
cpi_unexp     -1.417531   1.443784  -0.982  0.33431   
jobs          -5.000535   2.246853  -2.226  0.03398 * 
jobs_unexp    -1.239350   3.707234  -0.334  0.74055   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02889 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5472, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1412 
F-statistic: 1.348 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.2171 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0032005 0.0003396
capital 0.0003396 0.0008347

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2078
capital 0.2078  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 262.794 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.09883 0.09883
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.023952   0.147802   0.162   0.8719  
capital.l1     0.055911   0.126149   0.443   0.6594  
const          0.030568   0.013216   2.313   0.0246 *
ten_two        0.003742   0.005685   0.658   0.5132  
ten_two_unexp -0.026310   0.022270  -1.181   0.2427  
ten           -0.097725   0.096971  -1.008   0.3181  
ten_unexp      0.078018   0.104343   0.748   0.4579  
cpi            0.526630   1.254396   0.420   0.6763  
cpi_unexp     -1.220782   1.155492  -1.057   0.2955  
jobs          -1.430955   1.441195  -0.993   0.3253  
jobs_unexp     5.563306   2.982523   1.865   0.0677 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0332 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1286, Adjusted R-squared: -0.03584 
F-statistic: 0.782 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.6455 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.248049   0.169696  -1.462  0.14972   
capital.l1    -0.171208   0.144835  -1.182  0.24245   
const          0.023999   0.015174   1.582  0.11968   
ten_two        0.005375   0.006527   0.823  0.41392   
ten_two_unexp  0.038904   0.025569   1.522  0.13407   
ten            0.053499   0.111335   0.481  0.63283   
ten_unexp     -0.038416   0.119799  -0.321  0.74972   
cpi           -1.932854   1.440208  -1.342  0.18530   
cpi_unexp      1.681648   1.326653   1.268  0.21049   
jobs           4.613979   1.654677   2.788  0.00734 **
jobs_unexp    -5.105299   3.424318  -1.491  0.14192   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03812 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1587, Adjusted R-squared: -3.283e-05 
F-statistic: 0.9998 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.4557 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.001102 0.000496
capital 0.000496 0.001453

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3919
capital 0.3919  1.0000
Warning in log(sigma.det): NaNs produced
Warning in log(sigma.det): NaNs produced

Warning in log(sigma.det): NaNs produced

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 74.872 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7351 0.7351 0.6577 0.1512
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.08120    0.32480   0.250   0.8098  
capital.l1     -2.43322    1.35963  -1.790   0.1166  
loans.l2       -0.21269    0.35432  -0.600   0.5673  
capital.l2     -3.26229    1.74246  -1.872   0.1033  
const          -0.02288    0.29234  -0.078   0.9398  
ten_two         0.03926    0.07690   0.511   0.6254  
ten_two_unexp  -0.67890    0.32265  -2.104   0.0734 .
ten            -0.11682    0.72286  -0.162   0.8762  
ten_unexp       0.38279    0.72904   0.525   0.6158  
cpi           -32.70576   19.30787  -1.694   0.1341  
cpi_unexp      62.11949   28.25823   2.198   0.0639 .
jobs           62.64236   73.61498   0.851   0.4229  
jobs_unexp    -93.29218   68.96501  -1.353   0.2182  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1107 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5533, Adjusted R-squared: -0.2126 
F-statistic: 0.7224 on 12 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.7041 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1        0.06298    0.10502   0.600    0.568
capital.l1     -0.66227    0.43963  -1.506    0.176
loans.l2       -0.02734    0.11457  -0.239    0.818
capital.l2     -0.16658    0.56341  -0.296    0.776
const           0.03337    0.09453   0.353    0.734
ten_two         0.02397    0.02486   0.964    0.367
ten_two_unexp  -0.03802    0.10433  -0.364    0.726
ten            -0.04725    0.23373  -0.202    0.846
ten_unexp      -0.02739    0.23573  -0.116    0.911
cpi           -10.38406    6.24307  -1.663    0.140
cpi_unexp       8.55774    9.13710   0.937    0.380
jobs            2.37799   23.80290   0.100    0.923
jobs_unexp      6.87355   22.29936   0.308    0.767


Residual standard error: 0.03581 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5705, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1658 
F-statistic: 0.7748 on 12 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.6674 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0122634 0.0002139
capital 0.0002139 0.0012821

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.05395
capital 0.05395 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 191.536 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.096 1.096 1.075 1.075 1.068 1.068 1.029 1.004 1.004 0.9384 0.9384 0.9286 0.9286 0.8853 0.8853 0.8706 0.8706 0.7535 0.6541 0.2417
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.100808   0.195264   0.516   0.6100  
capital.l1    -0.055446   0.053092  -1.044   0.3059  
loans.l2       0.272817   0.201119   1.356   0.1866  
capital.l2    -0.008838   0.053762  -0.164   0.8707  
loans.l3       0.103942   0.199472   0.521   0.6067  
capital.l3    -0.023750   0.060621  -0.392   0.6984  
loans.l4       0.402504   0.198785   2.025   0.0533 .
capital.l4    -0.086430   0.060923  -1.419   0.1679  
loans.l5       0.157877   0.197485   0.799   0.4313  
capital.l5     0.007037   0.057093   0.123   0.9029  
loans.l6       0.058247   0.229479   0.254   0.8016  
capital.l6    -0.017450   0.094051  -0.186   0.8542  
loans.l7       0.282855   0.228713   1.237   0.2272  
capital.l7     0.034653   0.099459   0.348   0.7303  
loans.l8      -0.315670   0.216086  -1.461   0.1560  
capital.l8     0.017059   0.102138   0.167   0.8686  
loans.l9      -0.267417   0.186643  -1.433   0.1638  
capital.l9     0.020531   0.102066   0.201   0.8421  
loans.l10      0.087468   0.201787   0.433   0.6683  
capital.l10    0.006861   0.103746   0.066   0.9478  
const          0.019001   0.022748   0.835   0.4112  
ten_two       -0.009496   0.007467  -1.272   0.2147  
ten_two_unexp  0.045738   0.029521   1.549   0.1334  
ten            0.267154   0.146311   1.826   0.0794 .
ten_unexp     -0.280629   0.161608  -1.736   0.0943 .
cpi           -1.385690   1.915317  -0.723   0.4758  
cpi_unexp      0.671853   1.613574   0.416   0.6806  
jobs           0.013414   2.142182   0.006   0.9951  
jobs_unexp    -0.794549   3.572607  -0.222   0.8257  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03632 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6609, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2957 
F-statistic:  1.81 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.06616 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.12841    0.59199  -0.217  0.82997   
capital.l1    -0.43500    0.16096  -2.703  0.01196 * 
loans.l2      -0.77278    0.60974  -1.267  0.21625   
capital.l2    -0.48939    0.16299  -3.003  0.00585 **
loans.l3       0.47356    0.60474   0.783  0.44066   
capital.l3    -0.56038    0.18379  -3.049  0.00522 **
loans.l4       1.38042    0.60266   2.291  0.03035 * 
capital.l4    -0.33281    0.18470  -1.802  0.08318 . 
loans.l5       0.96022    0.59872   1.604  0.12084   
capital.l5    -0.14458    0.17309  -0.835  0.41116   
loans.l6       1.43857    0.69572   2.068  0.04875 * 
capital.l6    -0.79794    0.28514  -2.798  0.00954 **
loans.l7      -0.34365    0.69339  -0.496  0.62434   
capital.l7    -0.77582    0.30153  -2.573  0.01614 * 
loans.l8      -2.29499    0.65511  -3.503  0.00168 **
capital.l8    -0.58753    0.30965  -1.897  0.06894 . 
loans.l9      -0.46597    0.56585  -0.823  0.41772   
capital.l9    -0.50748    0.30943  -1.640  0.11304   
loans.l10      0.84848    0.61176   1.387  0.17723   
capital.l10    1.07572    0.31453   3.420  0.00208 **
const          0.15931    0.06897   2.310  0.02908 * 
ten_two       -0.05375    0.02264  -2.374  0.02524 * 
ten_two_unexp  0.13903    0.08950   1.553  0.13242   
ten            0.87291    0.44357   1.968  0.05983 . 
ten_unexp     -0.50563    0.48995  -1.032  0.31158   
cpi            4.16886    5.80671   0.718  0.47920   
cpi_unexp     -1.62448    4.89191  -0.332  0.74249   
jobs          -1.20805    6.49450  -0.186  0.85388   
jobs_unexp    -2.92704   10.83115  -0.270  0.78911   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1101 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7877, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5592 
F-statistic: 3.446 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.001092 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.001319 -0.001226
capital -0.001226  0.012123

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.3066
capital -0.3066  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: -199.031 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.1592 0.1592
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       2.045e-02  1.216e-01   0.168 0.867079    
capital.l1    -1.573e+02  4.183e+01  -3.762 0.000423 ***
const          1.614e-01  9.168e+00   0.018 0.986020    
ten_two        1.277e+00  3.907e+00   0.327 0.744984    
ten_two_unexp -2.769e+01  1.425e+01  -1.943 0.057295 .  
ten           -8.524e+00  6.795e+01  -0.125 0.900642    
ten_unexp      5.363e+01  7.333e+01   0.731 0.467766    
cpi           -7.489e+01  8.532e+02  -0.088 0.930388    
cpi_unexp      3.972e+02  7.912e+02   0.502 0.617725    
jobs           1.228e+03  9.084e+02   1.352 0.182267    
jobs_unexp    -3.698e+03  1.923e+03  -1.923 0.059812 .  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 22.67 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.282,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.1465 
F-statistic: 2.081 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.04261 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.0001781  0.0003749   0.475   0.6367  
capital.l1    -0.1301857  0.1289871  -1.009   0.3174  
const          0.0113406  0.0282719   0.401   0.6899  
ten_two        0.0185731  0.0120472   1.542   0.1291  
ten_two_unexp -0.0159146  0.0439448  -0.362   0.7187  
ten            0.4045585  0.2095375   1.931   0.0589 .
ten_unexp     -0.5059600  0.2261173  -2.238   0.0295 *
cpi           -6.5419698  2.6310264  -2.486   0.0161 *
cpi_unexp      5.5032498  2.4399397   2.255   0.0283 *
jobs           5.4680499  2.8011648   1.952   0.0562 .
jobs_unexp    -5.6667300  5.9292331  -0.956   0.3435  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.06992 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2446, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1021 
F-statistic: 1.716 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.1012 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   514.10518 -0.033678
capital  -0.03368  0.004889

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.02124
capital -0.02124  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 59 
Log Likelihood: 329.648 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9884 0.9884 0.977 0.9457 0.7812 0.7812 0.6944 0.6944 0.6684 0.6684 0.5721 0.1675
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.257863   0.179344   1.438   0.1587  
capital.l1     0.039629   0.248149   0.160   0.8740  
loans.l2       0.072744   0.199505   0.365   0.7174  
capital.l2    -0.058153   0.253678  -0.229   0.8199  
loans.l3       0.490214   0.197698   2.480   0.0177 *
capital.l3    -0.141641   0.227755  -0.622   0.5377  
loans.l4       0.019784   0.175000   0.113   0.9106  
capital.l4    -0.205071   0.229973  -0.892   0.3782  
loans.l5       0.088804   0.198355   0.448   0.6569  
capital.l5    -0.023856   0.248156  -0.096   0.9239  
loans.l6      -0.032001   0.172866  -0.185   0.8541  
capital.l6    -0.315415   0.246181  -1.281   0.2079  
const          0.007375   0.013593   0.543   0.5906  
ten_two       -0.001090   0.004626  -0.236   0.8150  
ten_two_unexp  0.028283   0.019682   1.437   0.1589  
ten            0.043826   0.077188   0.568   0.5735  
ten_unexp     -0.043195   0.082174  -0.526   0.6022  
cpi           -0.799333   0.972261  -0.822   0.4161  
cpi_unexp      0.618028   0.941960   0.656   0.5157  
jobs          -0.203802   1.110706  -0.183   0.8554  
jobs_unexp     1.438034   2.277565   0.631   0.5316  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02387 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4801, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2064 
F-statistic: 1.754 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 0.06686 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.0261847  0.1088237  -0.241  0.81115   
capital.l1    -0.2170970  0.1505736  -1.442  0.15755   
loans.l2      -0.2491179  0.1210569  -2.058  0.04651 * 
capital.l2    -0.2102169  0.1539281  -1.366  0.18007   
loans.l3       0.0312517  0.1199602   0.261  0.79587   
capital.l3    -0.4232052  0.1381988  -3.062  0.00402 **
loans.l4       0.0021988  0.1061873   0.021  0.98359   
capital.l4     0.3928395  0.1395444   2.815  0.00768 **
loans.l5       0.2578067  0.1203589   2.142  0.03867 * 
capital.l5    -0.2983595  0.1505778  -1.981  0.05481 . 
loans.l6       0.0028350  0.1048926   0.027  0.97858   
capital.l6    -0.3272390  0.1493795  -2.191  0.03468 * 
const         -0.0006647  0.0082482  -0.081  0.93619   
ten_two       -0.0001641  0.0028070  -0.058  0.95369   
ten_two_unexp  0.0032011  0.0119426   0.268  0.79012   
ten           -0.0246513  0.0468367  -0.526  0.60172   
ten_unexp      0.0288612  0.0498618   0.579  0.56612   
cpi           -0.4015188  0.5899546  -0.681  0.50026   
cpi_unexp      0.6541924  0.5715682   1.145  0.25955   
jobs           0.9368737  0.6739611   1.390  0.17259   
jobs_unexp    -2.2796775  1.3819948  -1.650  0.10728   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.01448 on 38 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9258, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8868 
F-statistic: 23.72 on 20 and 38 DF,  p-value: 1.223e-15 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   5.696e-04 5.939e-05
capital 5.939e-05 2.097e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1719
capital 0.1719  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 34 
Log Likelihood: 135.569 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
 1.03  1.03 0.9937 0.9937 0.9798 0.9798 0.9794 0.9794 0.9262 0.9262 0.8392 0.8392 0.8122 0.8122 0.6971 0.5907 0.5182 0.5182 0.1895 0.1895
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.445810   0.468685   0.951   0.3852  
capital.l1     0.041183   0.069193   0.595   0.5776  
loans.l2       0.349223   0.359208   0.972   0.3756  
capital.l2    -0.023263   0.087948  -0.265   0.8019  
loans.l3      -0.101697   0.407570  -0.250   0.8129  
capital.l3    -0.017334   0.102724  -0.169   0.8726  
loans.l4      -0.462928   0.376356  -1.230   0.2734  
capital.l4     0.035655   0.091711   0.389   0.7134  
loans.l5       0.207339   0.299539   0.692   0.5196  
capital.l5     0.165424   0.076375   2.166   0.0826 .
loans.l6       0.153610   0.330109   0.465   0.6613  
capital.l6    -0.008896   0.094730  -0.094   0.9288  
loans.l7       0.205101   0.302022   0.679   0.5272  
capital.l7     0.015422   0.088196   0.175   0.8681  
loans.l8       0.075974   0.280791   0.271   0.7975  
capital.l8     0.145191   0.096486   1.505   0.1927  
loans.l9       0.342749   0.213482   1.606   0.1693  
capital.l9     0.145739   0.085981   1.695   0.1508  
loans.l10     -0.034470   0.018672  -1.846   0.1242  
capital.l10    0.193553   0.112423   1.722   0.1458  
const         -0.087035   0.070275  -1.238   0.2705  
ten_two        0.030360   0.034043   0.892   0.4133  
ten_two_unexp -0.058456   0.130502  -0.448   0.6729  
ten           -0.339902   0.211498  -1.607   0.1689  
ten_unexp      0.321843   0.347419   0.926   0.3968  
cpi           -6.525765   6.456956  -1.011   0.3586  
cpi_unexp      4.232538   5.516604   0.767   0.4776  
jobs          17.955911  11.383833   1.577   0.1755  
jobs_unexp    -0.644175   7.434160  -0.087   0.9343  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04279 on 5 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8824, Adjusted R-squared: 0.224 
F-statistic:  1.34 on 28 and 5 DF,  p-value: 0.4043 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       -2.430322   1.980723  -1.227   0.2744  
capital.l1     -0.111626   0.292418  -0.382   0.7183  
loans.l2        0.570565   1.518058   0.376   0.7224  
capital.l2     -0.403650   0.371680  -1.086   0.3270  
loans.l3       -0.542420   1.722443  -0.315   0.7655  
capital.l3      0.310219   0.434127   0.715   0.5068  
loans.l4        0.774108   1.590529   0.487   0.6471  
capital.l4     -0.438514   0.387581  -1.131   0.3092  
loans.l5       -0.089642   1.265890  -0.071   0.9463  
capital.l5     -0.042761   0.322769  -0.132   0.8998  
loans.l6       -0.743249   1.395082  -0.533   0.6170  
capital.l6     -0.099161   0.400340  -0.248   0.8142  
loans.l7       -0.001532   1.276386  -0.001   0.9991  
capital.l7     -0.073253   0.372728  -0.197   0.8519  
loans.l8        0.122724   1.186660   0.103   0.9217  
capital.l8     -0.030838   0.407761  -0.076   0.9426  
loans.l9       -1.007993   0.902202  -1.117   0.3147  
capital.l9     -0.316272   0.363366  -0.870   0.4239  
loans.l10       0.103162   0.078910   1.307   0.2480  
capital.l10    -0.534980   0.475115  -1.126   0.3113  
const           0.217830   0.296990   0.733   0.4962  
ten_two        -0.057913   0.143870  -0.403   0.7039  
ten_two_unexp  -1.407410   0.551519  -2.552   0.0511 .
ten             0.323064   0.893820   0.361   0.7325  
ten_unexp       2.204282   1.468237   1.501   0.1936  
cpi            29.490668  27.287941   1.081   0.3292  
cpi_unexp       8.139218  23.313890   0.349   0.7412  
jobs          -32.877556  48.109566  -0.683   0.5247  
jobs_unexp     -0.933061  31.417730  -0.030   0.9775  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1808 on 5 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7708, Adjusted R-squared: -0.5125 
F-statistic: 0.6007 on 28 and 5 DF,  p-value: 0.8241 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.001831 -0.002311
capital -0.002311  0.032703

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.2986
capital -0.2986  1.0000
Warning in cor(resids): the standard deviation is zero
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 36 
Log Likelihood: 125.993 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.071 1.071 1.002 1.002 0.9963 0.9963 0.9756 0.9756 0.9699 0.9699 0.9063 0.9063 0.9011 0.9011 0.8423 0.8423 0.8252 0.8252 0.7455 0.7455
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.105004   0.547095  -0.192    0.853
capital.l1    -0.056941   0.384365  -0.148    0.886
loans.l2       0.220522   0.345657   0.638    0.544
capital.l2     0.012295   0.498966   0.025    0.981
loans.l3       0.510840   0.479035   1.066    0.322
capital.l3    -0.001261   0.254063  -0.005    0.996
loans.l4       0.134701   0.500756   0.269    0.796
capital.l4    -0.233419   0.277049  -0.843    0.427
loans.l5       0.191408   0.582576   0.329    0.752
capital.l5    -0.249827   0.313832  -0.796    0.452
loans.l6       0.003523   0.464645   0.008    0.994
capital.l6    -0.073909   0.325062  -0.227    0.827
loans.l7       0.101327   0.454919   0.223    0.830
capital.l7    -0.222756   0.283670  -0.785    0.458
loans.l8      -0.106344   0.528153  -0.201    0.846
capital.l8    -0.054996   0.314718  -0.175    0.866
loans.l9      -0.074154   0.445624  -0.166    0.873
capital.l9     0.140317   0.561435   0.250    0.810
loans.l10     -0.371142   0.333029  -1.114    0.302
capital.l10   -0.030705   0.391202  -0.078    0.940
const          0.208909   0.251373   0.831    0.433
ten_two       -0.054121   0.072250  -0.749    0.478
ten_two_unexp -0.027840   0.348712  -0.080    0.939
ten            0.377486   0.520091   0.726    0.492
ten_unexp     -0.359375   0.843183  -0.426    0.683
cpi            6.357281  12.560526   0.506    0.628
cpi_unexp      0.114157   9.590558   0.012    0.991
jobs          -7.549319  22.132465  -0.341    0.743
jobs_unexp     7.822775  17.931013   0.436    0.676


Residual standard error: 0.1122 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5984, Adjusted R-squared: -1.008 
F-statistic: 0.3725 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.9707 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.158102   0.399538   0.396   0.7041   
capital.l1     -0.805450   0.280698  -2.869   0.0240 * 
loans.l2        0.805905   0.252430   3.193   0.0152 * 
capital.l2     -0.880500   0.364390  -2.416   0.0463 * 
loans.l3       -0.277570   0.349835  -0.793   0.4536   
capital.l3     -0.058767   0.185540  -0.317   0.7607   
loans.l4       -0.623919   0.365697  -1.706   0.1318   
capital.l4     -0.242236   0.202326  -1.197   0.2702   
loans.l5       -1.438227   0.425450  -3.380   0.0118 * 
capital.l5     -0.329870   0.229189  -1.439   0.1932   
loans.l6        0.156685   0.339326   0.462   0.6583   
capital.l6     -0.303174   0.237390  -1.277   0.2423   
loans.l7        0.936836   0.332223   2.820   0.0258 * 
capital.l7     -0.303885   0.207161  -1.467   0.1858   
loans.l8        1.051026   0.385705   2.725   0.0296 * 
capital.l8     -0.854002   0.229836  -3.716   0.0075 **
loans.l9        0.318140   0.325435   0.978   0.3608   
capital.l9     -1.090478   0.410011  -2.660   0.0325 * 
loans.l10       0.157796   0.243208   0.649   0.5372   
capital.l10    -0.481383   0.285691  -1.685   0.1359   
const           0.327052   0.183576   1.782   0.1180   
ten_two        -0.038915   0.052763  -0.738   0.4848   
ten_two_unexp   0.264659   0.254661   1.039   0.3332   
ten            -0.388625   0.379818  -1.023   0.3403   
ten_unexp      -0.004805   0.615769  -0.008   0.9940   
cpi           -15.852468   9.172835  -1.728   0.1276   
cpi_unexp      13.360414   7.003895   1.908   0.0981 . 
jobs           42.584603  16.163133   2.635   0.0337 * 
jobs_unexp      8.011202  13.094851   0.612   0.5600   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.08193 on 7 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.916,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.5799 
F-statistic: 2.726 on 28 and 7 DF,  p-value: 0.08621 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.012586 -0.001332
capital -0.001332  0.006713

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.1449
capital -0.1449  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 285.423 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.066 1.066 0.9701 0.9701 0.9615 0.9615 0.9551 0.9551 0.9363 0.927 0.927 0.919 0.919 0.913 0.913 0.9055 0.9055 0.8939 0.8939 0.04842
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.413161   0.174421  -2.369   0.0256 *
capital.l1     0.253785   0.220747   1.150   0.2607  
loans.l2      -0.174808   0.208992  -0.836   0.4105  
capital.l2     0.241246   0.260162   0.927   0.3623  
loans.l3       0.186355   0.192559   0.968   0.3421  
capital.l3     0.269546   0.241843   1.115   0.2752  
loans.l4      -0.049693   0.203054  -0.245   0.8086  
capital.l4     0.168475   0.206631   0.815   0.4223  
loans.l5      -0.123102   0.189513  -0.650   0.5217  
capital.l5     0.365224   0.187079   1.952   0.0618 .
loans.l6      -0.136577   0.193751  -0.705   0.4871  
capital.l6     0.076894   0.185768   0.414   0.6823  
loans.l7      -0.228775   0.186970  -1.224   0.2321  
capital.l7     0.126350   0.166518   0.759   0.4548  
loans.l8      -0.167272   0.183836  -0.910   0.3712  
capital.l8     0.064200   0.171232   0.375   0.7108  
loans.l9      -0.038681   0.155183  -0.249   0.8051  
capital.l9     0.275081   0.188241   1.461   0.1559  
loans.l10      0.352559   0.155593   2.266   0.0320 *
capital.l10    0.075951   0.145872   0.521   0.6070  
const         -0.024191   0.036694  -0.659   0.5155  
ten_two       -0.001473   0.008898  -0.166   0.8698  
ten_two_unexp  0.039195   0.023698   1.654   0.1102  
ten            0.172478   0.128051   1.347   0.1896  
ten_unexp     -0.200447   0.148419  -1.351   0.1885  
cpi           -2.771464   1.853451  -1.495   0.1469  
cpi_unexp      2.364727   1.978992   1.195   0.2429  
jobs           8.085091   3.507680   2.305   0.0294 *
jobs_unexp    -4.970025   4.229849  -1.175   0.2506  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0276 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6443, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2612 
F-statistic: 1.682 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.0932 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1        0.20919    0.21887   0.956  0.34799   
capital.l1     -0.09969    0.27700  -0.360  0.72183   
loans.l2        0.48288    0.26225   1.841  0.07701 . 
capital.l2     -0.92092    0.32646  -2.821  0.00905 **
loans.l3        0.38691    0.24163   1.601  0.12140   
capital.l3     -0.77891    0.30347  -2.567  0.01637 * 
loans.l4        0.77642    0.25480   3.047  0.00525 **
capital.l4     -0.86247    0.25929  -3.326  0.00263 **
loans.l5        0.40328    0.23781   1.696  0.10186   
capital.l5     -0.64272    0.23475  -2.738  0.01101 * 
loans.l6        0.55225    0.24312   2.271  0.03163 * 
capital.l6     -0.54154    0.23311  -2.323  0.02826 * 
loans.l7        0.42325    0.23461   1.804  0.08283 . 
capital.l7     -0.49245    0.20895  -2.357  0.02625 * 
loans.l8        0.25678    0.23068   1.113  0.27583   
capital.l8     -0.23018    0.21487  -1.071  0.29390   
loans.l9        0.22902    0.19473   1.176  0.25020   
capital.l9     -0.65326    0.23621  -2.766  0.01031 * 
loans.l10       0.34094    0.19524   1.746  0.09257 . 
capital.l10     0.02743    0.18304   0.150  0.88205   
const           0.15092    0.04605   3.278  0.00297 **
ten_two        -0.03445    0.01117  -3.086  0.00477 **
ten_two_unexp  -0.05431    0.02974  -1.826  0.07933 . 
ten            -0.05705    0.16068  -0.355  0.72541   
ten_unexp       0.13454    0.18624   0.722  0.47649   
cpi             2.00792    2.32576   0.863  0.39585   
cpi_unexp      -0.15642    2.48329  -0.063  0.95026   
jobs          -13.06718    4.40153  -2.969  0.00635 **
jobs_unexp      9.55617    5.30772   1.800  0.08341 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03463 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6797, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3349 
F-statistic: 1.971 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.04295 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0007617 0.0006609
capital 0.0006609 0.0011993

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6915
capital 0.6915  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 32 
Log Likelihood: 218.169 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9895 0.9895 0.9492 0.9492 0.9488 0.9488 0.9386 0.9386 0.9286 0.9286 0.9127 0.9127 0.9102 0.9102 0.8951 0.8951 0.8699 0.8699 0.8071 0.01415
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -0.402008   0.619448  -0.649    0.563
capital.l1     0.090230   1.805843   0.050    0.963
loans.l2      -0.158273   0.684968  -0.231    0.832
capital.l2     1.093519   1.472844   0.742    0.512
loans.l3       0.419613   0.735058   0.571    0.608
capital.l3     0.260986   1.439494   0.181    0.868
loans.l4       0.196256   0.527415   0.372    0.735
capital.l4     0.861006   1.199550   0.718    0.525
loans.l5      -0.220503   0.609212  -0.362    0.741
capital.l5    -0.603489   0.994407  -0.607    0.587
loans.l6       0.142873   0.466406   0.306    0.779
capital.l6    -0.324080   1.416270  -0.229    0.834
loans.l7       0.161419   0.538659   0.300    0.784
capital.l7     0.517956   1.049518   0.494    0.656
loans.l8       0.241672   0.651364   0.371    0.735
capital.l8     0.311513   0.870853   0.358    0.744
loans.l9       0.036523   0.605078   0.060    0.956
capital.l9     0.477239   1.286648   0.371    0.735
loans.l10     -0.119356   0.199070  -0.600    0.591
capital.l10   -1.012475   1.032610  -0.981    0.399
const         -0.055138   0.326038  -0.169    0.876
ten_two        0.001368   0.058062   0.024    0.983
ten_two_unexp -0.119933   0.187253  -0.640    0.567
ten           -0.016976   0.514485  -0.033    0.976
ten_unexp      0.214178   0.581400   0.368    0.737
cpi            1.514362  14.343527   0.106    0.923
cpi_unexp     -3.752292  12.239878  -0.307    0.779
jobs          -0.555312  42.034000  -0.013    0.990
jobs_unexp    -4.598826  28.371422  -0.162    0.882


Residual standard error: 0.08092 on 3 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7562, Adjusted R-squared: -1.519 
F-statistic: 0.3323 on 28 and 3 DF,  p-value: 0.9531 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.13502    0.06487  -2.082   0.1288  
capital.l1    -0.68842    0.18910  -3.641   0.0357 *
loans.l2      -0.11421    0.07173  -1.592   0.2095  
capital.l2    -0.49079    0.15423  -3.182   0.0500 .
loans.l3       0.02561    0.07697   0.333   0.7612  
capital.l3    -0.32349    0.15074  -2.146   0.1212  
loans.l4       0.17769    0.05523   3.217   0.0487 *
capital.l4     0.14041    0.12561   1.118   0.3451  
loans.l5      -0.08364    0.06379  -1.311   0.2812  
capital.l5     0.26826    0.10413   2.576   0.0820 .
loans.l6      -0.17914    0.04884  -3.668   0.0350 *
capital.l6    -0.04639    0.14830  -0.313   0.7749  
loans.l7      -0.25598    0.05641  -4.538   0.0200 *
capital.l7     0.06788    0.10990   0.618   0.5805  
loans.l8      -0.13419    0.06821  -1.967   0.1438  
capital.l8     0.01339    0.09119   0.147   0.8926  
loans.l9      -0.15058    0.06336  -2.377   0.0979 .
capital.l9     0.43774    0.13473   3.249   0.0475 *
loans.l10     -0.01906    0.02085  -0.915   0.4278  
capital.l10   -0.18586    0.10813  -1.719   0.1841  
const          0.12402    0.03414   3.633   0.0359 *
ten_two        0.02554    0.00608   4.200   0.0246 *
ten_two_unexp -0.03602    0.01961  -1.837   0.1635  
ten            0.11461    0.05387   2.127   0.1233  
ten_unexp     -0.02452    0.06088  -0.403   0.7141  
cpi           -3.91888    1.50198  -2.609   0.0797 .
cpi_unexp      1.84066    1.28170   1.436   0.2465  
jobs          -8.21732    4.40158  -1.867   0.1587  
jobs_unexp    -6.33165    2.97090  -2.131   0.1229  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.008473 on 3 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.9892, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8879 
F-statistic: 9.771 on 28 and 3 DF,  p-value: 0.042 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   6.547e-03 5.567e-05
capital 5.567e-05 7.179e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.08119
capital 0.08119 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 56 
Log Likelihood: 294.106 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9466 0.9466 0.9461 0.9461 0.9402 0.9402 0.9352 0.9352 0.9041 0.9041 0.9011 0.9011 0.9006 0.9006 0.8981 0.6187 0.6187 0.5036
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.243025   0.183366   1.325   0.1954  
capital.l1     0.067399   0.112311   0.600   0.5531  
loans.l2       0.245555   0.185671   1.323   0.1963  
capital.l2    -0.190779   0.097586  -1.955   0.0603 .
loans.l3      -0.208662   0.209258  -0.997   0.3269  
capital.l3     0.050742   0.111440   0.455   0.6523  
loans.l4       0.083623   0.194691   0.430   0.6707  
capital.l4    -0.056570   0.104659  -0.541   0.5930  
loans.l5      -0.238788   0.203103  -1.176   0.2493  
capital.l5    -0.229213   0.111632  -2.053   0.0492 *
loans.l6      -0.225588   0.179584  -1.256   0.2191  
capital.l6    -0.067257   0.116473  -0.577   0.5681  
loans.l7       0.372766   0.169589   2.198   0.0361 *
capital.l7     0.024918   0.108748   0.229   0.8204  
loans.l8       0.181206   0.197755   0.916   0.3671  
capital.l8    -0.146986   0.126955  -1.158   0.2564  
loans.l9      -0.180656   0.187126  -0.965   0.3423  
capital.l9     0.111348   0.117194   0.950   0.3499  
const          0.026927   0.021123   1.275   0.2125  
ten_two       -0.005980   0.004673  -1.280   0.2108  
ten_two_unexp  0.014697   0.019598   0.750   0.4593  
ten           -0.030029   0.071787  -0.418   0.6788  
ten_unexp      0.015156   0.077179   0.196   0.8457  
cpi            2.386459   1.191097   2.004   0.0545 .
cpi_unexp     -2.282961   1.245844  -1.832   0.0772 .
jobs          -1.263355   1.281795  -0.986   0.3325  
jobs_unexp     2.059702   2.207507   0.933   0.3585  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02128 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5425, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1323 
F-statistic: 1.323 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.2318 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.520913   0.259027  -2.011  0.05370 . 
capital.l1    -0.198893   0.158653  -1.254  0.21999   
loans.l2       0.253346   0.262283   0.966  0.34207   
capital.l2    -0.287768   0.137852  -2.088  0.04574 * 
loans.l3       0.798769   0.295602   2.702  0.01139 * 
capital.l3    -0.375578   0.157423  -2.386  0.02379 * 
loans.l4       0.426213   0.275024   1.550  0.13205   
capital.l4    -0.266065   0.147843  -1.800  0.08233 . 
loans.l5       0.064669   0.286907   0.225  0.82325   
capital.l5    -0.107000   0.157694  -0.679  0.50282   
loans.l6       0.003827   0.253684   0.015  0.98807   
capital.l6    -0.137852   0.164532  -0.838  0.40897   
loans.l7      -0.131247   0.239565  -0.548  0.58798   
capital.l7    -0.135954   0.153619  -0.885  0.38343   
loans.l8       0.325168   0.279353   1.164  0.25391   
capital.l8    -0.391143   0.179339  -2.181  0.03744 * 
loans.l9       0.783319   0.264338   2.963  0.00602 **
capital.l9    -0.162861   0.165550  -0.984  0.33337   
const          0.042679   0.029838   1.430  0.16331   
ten_two       -0.013312   0.006601  -2.017  0.05306 . 
ten_two_unexp  0.029383   0.027685   1.061  0.29730   
ten            0.045561   0.101408   0.449  0.65657   
ten_unexp     -0.042117   0.109025  -0.386  0.70209   
cpi           -2.792349   1.682568  -1.660  0.10778   
cpi_unexp     -2.138135   1.759905  -1.215  0.23420   
jobs           1.692368   1.810691   0.935  0.35768   
jobs_unexp    -0.039047   3.118371  -0.013  0.99010   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03007 on 29 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6436, Adjusted R-squared: 0.324 
F-statistic: 2.014 on 26 and 29 DF,  p-value: 0.03462 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0004530 0.0002426
capital 0.0002426 0.0009040

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3791
capital 0.3791  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 60 
Log Likelihood: 209.773 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.8717 0.8717 0.8413 0.8413 0.8304 0.8304 0.7476 0.6749 0.6749 0.5493
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.250893   0.161948   1.549 0.129014    
capital.l1    -0.090083   0.108626  -0.829 0.411740    
loans.l2      -0.057995   0.135930  -0.427 0.671867    
capital.l2    -0.084416   0.105303  -0.802 0.427379    
loans.l3       0.319387   0.182289   1.752 0.087236 .  
capital.l3    -0.085697   0.167587  -0.511 0.611844    
loans.l4      -0.107179   0.191414  -0.560 0.578571    
capital.l4     0.229668   0.163554   1.404 0.167780    
loans.l5       0.103592   0.185167   0.559 0.578897    
capital.l5    -0.060343   0.171813  -0.351 0.727226    
const         -0.036605   0.023038  -1.589 0.119766    
ten_two        0.002060   0.008616   0.239 0.812205    
ten_two_unexp  0.147394   0.038437   3.835 0.000425 ***
ten           -0.091342   0.149698  -0.610 0.545115    
ten_unexp     -0.088456   0.161640  -0.547 0.587177    
cpi            4.049513   2.403184   1.685 0.099575 .  
cpi_unexp     -0.352271   2.390908  -0.147 0.883588    
jobs           0.448351   2.871872   0.156 0.876706    
jobs_unexp    -2.139901   4.704495  -0.455 0.651607    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04707 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4441, Adjusted R-squared:   0.2 
F-statistic:  1.82 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.05649 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.313946   0.195302   1.607 0.115622    
capital.l1     0.103631   0.130997   0.791 0.433441    
loans.l2      -0.126475   0.163925  -0.772 0.444810    
capital.l2    -0.008021   0.126990  -0.063 0.949944    
loans.l3       0.289993   0.219832   1.319 0.194436    
capital.l3     0.008164   0.202102   0.040 0.967974    
loans.l4       0.322748   0.230835   1.398 0.169579    
capital.l4    -0.046894   0.197238  -0.238 0.813258    
loans.l5       0.741263   0.223303   3.320 0.001900 ** 
capital.l5     0.237825   0.207198   1.148 0.257699    
const         -0.009529   0.027783  -0.343 0.733376    
ten_two       -0.011802   0.010390  -1.136 0.262613    
ten_two_unexp  0.181847   0.046354   3.923 0.000326 ***
ten            0.223729   0.180528   1.239 0.222282    
ten_unexp     -0.655823   0.194929  -3.364 0.001674 ** 
cpi            0.398778   2.898121   0.138 0.891231    
cpi_unexp      0.913939   2.883317   0.317 0.752871    
jobs           3.931400   3.463336   1.135 0.262906    
jobs_unexp     2.670217   5.673388   0.471 0.640380    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05676 on 41 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5554, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3603 
F-statistic: 2.846 on 18 and 41 DF,  p-value: 0.002791 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0022156 0.0006275
capital 0.0006275 0.0032222

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.2348
capital 0.2348  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 62 
Log Likelihood: 210.651 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6157 0.6157 0.3992 0.3992 0.3601 0.3601
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1      -0.41559    0.15024  -2.766 0.008080 ** 
capital.l1     1.26103    0.51395   2.454 0.017905 *  
loans.l2      -0.40035    0.16179  -2.475 0.017007 *  
capital.l2     0.57490    0.52651   1.092 0.280440    
loans.l3      -0.57791    0.15669  -3.688 0.000585 ***
capital.l3     2.42858    0.55761   4.355 7.15e-05 ***
const          0.05572    0.04733   1.177 0.245027    
ten_two       -0.07154    0.01992  -3.592 0.000783 ***
ten_two_unexp -0.06858    0.06156  -1.114 0.270982    
ten           -0.05114    0.28163  -0.182 0.856696    
ten_unexp      0.19592    0.31218   0.628 0.533305    
cpi            4.05310    3.62813   1.117 0.269617    
cpi_unexp     -3.11852    3.43164  -0.909 0.368116    
jobs          -4.41324    3.92367  -1.125 0.266397    
jobs_unexp    10.09879    8.51262   1.186 0.241454    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.09542 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4582, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2968 
F-statistic: 2.839 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.003755 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.0535755  0.0490740  -1.092   0.2805  
capital.l1     0.0009422  0.1678795   0.006   0.9955  
loans.l2      -0.0560099  0.0528479  -1.060   0.2946  
capital.l2    -0.0144442  0.1719836  -0.084   0.9334  
loans.l3      -0.1011415  0.0511818  -1.976   0.0540 .
capital.l3     0.4114764  0.1821421   2.259   0.0286 *
const          0.0306767  0.0154610   1.984   0.0531 .
ten_two       -0.0107245  0.0065057  -1.648   0.1059  
ten_two_unexp -0.0218082  0.0201093  -1.084   0.2837  
ten            0.0552188  0.0919924   0.600   0.5512  
ten_unexp      0.0013049  0.1019719   0.013   0.9898  
cpi            1.8387785  1.1851208   1.552   0.1275  
cpi_unexp     -1.3660786  1.1209371  -1.219   0.2290  
jobs          -0.8659387  1.2816568  -0.676   0.5026  
jobs_unexp     1.7172024  2.7806270   0.618   0.5398  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03117 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2309, Adjusted R-squared: 0.001842 
F-statistic: 1.008 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.4615 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans   capital
loans   0.009106 0.0014734
capital 0.001473 0.0009716

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.4954
capital 0.4954  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 337.655 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9685 0.9685 0.9029 0.9029 0.9017 0.9017 0.8632 0.8632 0.8617 0.8617 0.859 0.859 0.8569 0.8569 0.8404 0.8404 0.7642 0.6726 0.6726 0.5871
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.149249   0.187289   0.797   0.4327  
capital.l1     0.103733   0.289781   0.358   0.7233  
loans.l2       0.106514   0.219052   0.486   0.6309  
capital.l2     0.158673   0.206790   0.767   0.4498  
loans.l3      -0.012833   0.181201  -0.071   0.9441  
capital.l3    -0.276369   0.201279  -1.373   0.1815  
loans.l4      -0.011871   0.187391  -0.063   0.9500  
capital.l4    -0.053594   0.194436  -0.276   0.7850  
loans.l5      -0.127747   0.201198  -0.635   0.5310  
capital.l5     0.309031   0.189902   1.627   0.1157  
loans.l6       0.103298   0.176015   0.587   0.5624  
capital.l6    -0.201034   0.203467  -0.988   0.3322  
loans.l7       0.012770   0.170936   0.075   0.9410  
capital.l7    -0.027296   0.223148  -0.122   0.9036  
loans.l8       0.020548   0.181967   0.113   0.9110  
capital.l8     0.117561   0.216489   0.543   0.5917  
loans.l9       0.136987   0.149293   0.918   0.3673  
capital.l9    -0.003902   0.224102  -0.017   0.9862  
loans.l10     -0.128467   0.207739  -0.618   0.5417  
capital.l10    0.004162   0.201864   0.021   0.9837  
const          0.018447   0.016454   1.121   0.2725  
ten_two       -0.008088   0.006354  -1.273   0.2143  
ten_two_unexp -0.042989   0.019134  -2.247   0.0334 *
ten            0.052947   0.083738   0.632   0.5327  
ten_unexp      0.038204   0.096482   0.396   0.6954  
cpi           -0.015556   1.190197  -0.013   0.9897  
cpi_unexp     -0.311394   1.145613  -0.272   0.7879  
jobs          -0.852725   1.309409  -0.651   0.5206  
jobs_unexp     2.512510   2.858099   0.879   0.3874  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0221 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5973, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1636 
F-statistic: 1.377 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.2074 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.288618   0.102494   2.816 0.009156 ** 
capital.l1    -0.214130   0.158583  -1.350 0.188566    
loans.l2      -0.078012   0.119877  -0.651 0.520907    
capital.l2    -0.165933   0.113166  -1.466 0.154563    
loans.l3       0.168791   0.099163   1.702 0.100654    
capital.l3    -0.127079   0.110150  -1.154 0.259123    
loans.l4       0.330677   0.102550   3.225 0.003390 ** 
capital.l4    -0.076387   0.106405  -0.718 0.479230    
loans.l5       0.118394   0.110106   1.075 0.292130    
capital.l5    -0.025835   0.103924  -0.249 0.805623    
loans.l6       0.068309   0.096325   0.709 0.484543    
capital.l6    -0.092472   0.111348  -0.830 0.413828    
loans.l7      -0.224943   0.093545  -2.405 0.023605 *  
capital.l7     0.039891   0.122118   0.327 0.746542    
loans.l8       0.087262   0.099581   0.876 0.388897    
capital.l8    -0.173086   0.118474  -1.461 0.156005    
loans.l9       0.357694   0.081701   4.378 0.000173 ***
capital.l9    -0.005466   0.122640  -0.045 0.964789    
loans.l10      0.159765   0.113685   1.405 0.171762    
capital.l10   -0.213108   0.110470  -1.929 0.064702 .  
const          0.018367   0.009004   2.040 0.051653 .  
ten_two        0.009761   0.003477   2.807 0.009347 ** 
ten_two_unexp -0.027307   0.010471  -2.608 0.014899 *  
ten           -0.064138   0.045826  -1.400 0.173447    
ten_unexp      0.124788   0.052800   2.363 0.025865 *  
cpi           -0.392474   0.651336  -0.603 0.552016    
cpi_unexp     -0.949765   0.626938  -1.515 0.141855    
jobs           0.456723   0.716575   0.637 0.529458    
jobs_unexp     0.991066   1.564098   0.634 0.531854    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0121 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8196, Adjusted R-squared: 0.6253 
F-statistic: 4.219 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.0002092 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   4.885e-04 1.097e-05
capital 1.097e-05 1.463e-04

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.04104
capital 0.04104 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 55 
Log Likelihood: 246.866 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9943 0.9943 0.966 0.966 0.944 0.944 0.934 0.934 0.9165 0.9165 0.9148 0.8723 0.8723 0.8495 0.8495 0.8062 0.8062 0.7774 0.7774 0.6404
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1      -0.331962   0.196999  -1.685   0.1039  
capital.l1     0.181943   0.110664   1.644   0.1122  
loans.l2      -0.249399   0.194356  -1.283   0.2107  
capital.l2     0.159524   0.120663   1.322   0.1977  
loans.l3      -0.072180   0.193527  -0.373   0.7122  
capital.l3     0.243282   0.132967   1.830   0.0788 .
loans.l4      -0.089465   0.198796  -0.450   0.6564  
capital.l4     0.231496   0.114383   2.024   0.0534 .
loans.l5       0.029632   0.199658   0.148   0.8832  
capital.l5     0.121755   0.131775   0.924   0.3640  
loans.l6       0.152291   0.204947   0.743   0.4641  
capital.l6     0.113821   0.136819   0.832   0.4130  
loans.l7       0.172030   0.205197   0.838   0.4095  
capital.l7     0.176699   0.138041   1.280   0.2118  
loans.l8       0.083106   0.215231   0.386   0.7025  
capital.l8     0.198328   0.143435   1.383   0.1785  
loans.l9       0.070444   0.252506   0.279   0.7825  
capital.l9     0.184439   0.136245   1.354   0.1875  
loans.l10     -0.058427   0.196270  -0.298   0.7683  
capital.l10    0.193851   0.120850   1.604   0.1208  
const         -0.008468   0.019897  -0.426   0.6739  
ten_two       -0.009136   0.011663  -0.783   0.4405  
ten_two_unexp -0.021735   0.027341  -0.795   0.4338  
ten            0.137749   0.170177   0.809   0.4256  
ten_unexp     -0.067856   0.189692  -0.358   0.7234  
cpi           -0.403191   1.740299  -0.232   0.8186  
cpi_unexp     -0.632335   1.547733  -0.409   0.6862  
jobs           3.997317   2.301814   1.737   0.0943 .
jobs_unexp    -3.471382   3.777035  -0.919   0.3665  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.0343 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6747, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3243 
F-statistic: 1.926 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.04849 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       -0.222001   0.252781  -0.878 0.387860    
capital.l1     -0.210892   0.142000  -1.485 0.149527    
loans.l2        0.432691   0.249390   1.735 0.094582 .  
capital.l2     -0.168931   0.154830  -1.091 0.285248    
loans.l3        0.023011   0.248326   0.093 0.926881    
capital.l3      0.350852   0.170618   2.056 0.049914 *  
loans.l4        0.060540   0.255087   0.237 0.814260    
capital.l4      0.313757   0.146772   2.138 0.042110 *  
loans.l5       -0.321399   0.256193  -1.255 0.220814    
capital.l5      0.283990   0.169089   1.680 0.105027    
loans.l6        0.326426   0.262980   1.241 0.225593    
capital.l6      0.132807   0.175560   0.756 0.456165    
loans.l7        0.788345   0.263301   2.994 0.005971 ** 
capital.l7     -0.214041   0.177129  -1.208 0.237775    
loans.l8       -0.285429   0.276176  -1.034 0.310886    
capital.l8     -0.171172   0.184050  -0.930 0.360912    
loans.l9        0.171283   0.324006   0.529 0.601537    
capital.l9     -0.657368   0.174825  -3.760 0.000871 ***
loans.l10      -0.319601   0.251847  -1.269 0.215673    
capital.l10    -0.242053   0.155070  -1.561 0.130630    
const           0.025137   0.025531   0.985 0.333918    
ten_two        -0.007098   0.014965  -0.474 0.639229    
ten_two_unexp  -0.057046   0.035083  -1.626 0.116003    
ten             0.432020   0.218364   1.978 0.058565 .  
ten_unexp      -0.415942   0.243405  -1.709 0.099392 .  
cpi            -5.281929   2.233085  -2.365 0.025757 *  
cpi_unexp       5.843321   1.985992   2.942 0.006768 ** 
jobs            7.240726   2.953599   2.451 0.021259 *  
jobs_unexp    -17.731699   4.846546  -3.659 0.001131 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04401 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.773,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.5286 
F-statistic: 3.162 on 28 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.002101 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0011764 0.0005844
capital 0.0005844 0.0019370

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3871
capital 0.3871  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 240.608 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6603 0.05666
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.509728   0.115926   4.397 5.32e-05 ***
capital.l1     0.126236   0.072869   1.732    0.089 .  
const          0.002505   0.012593   0.199    0.843    
ten_two       -0.003105   0.005315  -0.584    0.562    
ten_two_unexp -0.004311   0.018530  -0.233    0.817    
ten            0.123344   0.087513   1.409    0.165    
ten_unexp     -0.082069   0.093784  -0.875    0.385    
cpi           -0.611148   1.125198  -0.543    0.589    
cpi_unexp      0.958471   1.037665   0.924    0.360    
jobs           1.105922   1.225623   0.902    0.371    
jobs_unexp    -3.881052   2.473456  -1.569    0.123    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02962 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5165, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4252 
F-statistic: 5.661 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 1.043e-05 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.540286   0.220636   2.449  0.01768 * 
capital.l1     0.207199   0.138688   1.494  0.14111   
const         -0.016986   0.023967  -0.709  0.48161   
ten_two        0.005484   0.010116   0.542  0.59005   
ten_two_unexp -0.024588   0.035267  -0.697  0.48872   
ten            0.225663   0.166559   1.355  0.18121   
ten_unexp     -0.194214   0.178496  -1.088  0.28149   
cpi           -0.893600   2.141537  -0.417  0.67817   
cpi_unexp      3.348369   1.974941   1.695  0.09586 . 
jobs           6.671164   2.332671   2.860  0.00605 **
jobs_unexp    -9.406445   4.707615  -1.998  0.05084 . 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.05637 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4305, Adjusted R-squared: 0.323 
F-statistic: 4.006 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0004094 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans   0.0008774 0.000275
capital 0.0002750 0.003178

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.1647
capital 0.1647  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 57 
Log Likelihood: 229.259 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9833 0.9527 0.9527 0.9327 0.9327 0.8897 0.8897 0.8856 0.8856 0.8837 0.8837 0.8464 0.8464 0.8299 0.8299 0.5138
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.37190    0.15659   2.375  0.02371 * 
capital.l1    -0.11576    0.18285  -0.633  0.53115   
loans.l2       0.00481    0.17503   0.027  0.97825   
capital.l2     0.01954    0.18125   0.108  0.91482   
loans.l3      -0.05666    0.17153  -0.330  0.74329   
capital.l3     0.07601    0.17297   0.439  0.66331   
loans.l4       0.46515    0.19688   2.363  0.02439 * 
capital.l4     0.01199    0.22146   0.054  0.95716   
loans.l5      -0.15385    0.19251  -0.799  0.43010   
capital.l5     0.61502    0.19470   3.159  0.00345 **
loans.l6       0.11305    0.18059   0.626  0.53577   
capital.l6    -0.01660    0.17936  -0.093  0.92685   
loans.l7       0.16864    0.17977   0.938  0.35523   
capital.l7     0.46633    0.21866   2.133  0.04072 * 
loans.l8      -0.34419    0.16791  -2.050  0.04865 * 
capital.l8     0.07290    0.21526   0.339  0.73707   
const         -0.05986    0.02433  -2.460  0.01947 * 
ten_two        0.01291    0.00906   1.425  0.16371   
ten_two_unexp  0.03285    0.04188   0.784  0.43862   
ten           -0.27711    0.19790  -1.400  0.17106   
ten_unexp      0.05375    0.22040   0.244  0.80888   
cpi            2.58208    2.68867   0.960  0.34408   
cpi_unexp     -0.59784    2.02211  -0.296  0.76941   
jobs           2.59050    2.42747   1.067  0.29389   
jobs_unexp    -5.87174    4.68290  -1.254  0.21897   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04631 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6019, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3034 
F-statistic: 2.016 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.03216 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.120818   0.136675   0.884  0.38330   
capital.l1    -0.116264   0.159588  -0.729  0.47159   
loans.l2      -0.027851   0.152767  -0.182  0.85649   
capital.l2    -0.230042   0.158199  -1.454  0.15565   
loans.l3       0.463940   0.149708   3.099  0.00403 **
capital.l3    -0.034581   0.150963  -0.229  0.82027   
loans.l4       0.041220   0.171839   0.240  0.81196   
capital.l4    -0.055252   0.193293  -0.286  0.77684   
loans.l5      -0.277912   0.168026  -1.654  0.10791   
capital.l5     0.018729   0.169935   0.110  0.91293   
loans.l6       0.162256   0.157621   1.029  0.31101   
capital.l6    -0.282168   0.156542  -1.803  0.08089 . 
loans.l7      -0.040956   0.156904  -0.261  0.79574   
capital.l7     0.071979   0.190848   0.377  0.70855   
loans.l8       0.201732   0.146553   1.377  0.17822   
capital.l8    -0.319916   0.187876  -1.703  0.09830 . 
const          0.050583   0.021237   2.382  0.02334 * 
ten_two       -0.018081   0.007908  -2.286  0.02899 * 
ten_two_unexp  0.071902   0.036555   1.967  0.05791 . 
ten           -0.013294   0.172726  -0.077  0.93913   
ten_unexp     -0.113776   0.192367  -0.591  0.55837   
cpi           -1.758707   2.346661  -0.749  0.45906   
cpi_unexp      1.689702   1.764887   0.957  0.34554   
jobs           1.159423   2.118692   0.547  0.58801   
jobs_unexp    -0.801338   4.087222  -0.196  0.84580   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04042 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4689, Adjusted R-squared: 0.07059 
F-statistic: 1.177 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.3288 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0021443 0.0001082
capital 0.0001082 0.0016335

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.05781
capital 0.05781 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 20 
Log Likelihood: 15.875 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.216 0.4962
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       1.201e+00  1.562e+00   0.769    0.462
capital.l1    -7.686e-04  2.314e-02  -0.033    0.974
const          1.770e-01  1.708e-01   1.036    0.327
ten_two       -3.148e-02  4.923e-02  -0.639    0.538
ten_two_unexp  1.113e-01  1.889e-01   0.589    0.570
ten           -3.956e-01  4.462e-01  -0.887    0.398
ten_unexp      2.289e-01  4.182e-01   0.547    0.597
cpi            3.038e+00  1.141e+01   0.266    0.796
cpi_unexp     -1.132e+01  1.082e+01  -1.046    0.323
jobs          -3.036e+01  3.686e+01  -0.824    0.431
jobs_unexp     1.681e+01  3.124e+01   0.538    0.604


Residual standard error: 0.06457 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3936, Adjusted R-squared: -0.2801 
F-statistic: 0.5842 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.7928 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1      -33.1787    22.0793  -1.503    0.167
capital.l1     -0.4812     0.3270  -1.472    0.175
const           0.2049     2.4134   0.085    0.934
ten_two        -0.6865     0.6957  -0.987    0.350
ten_two_unexp   3.1742     2.6694   1.189    0.265
ten            -5.3747     6.3056  -0.852    0.416
ten_unexp      -0.6227     5.9101  -0.105    0.918
cpi           117.1382   161.2037   0.727    0.486
cpi_unexp      14.1779   152.9348   0.093    0.928
jobs           -3.3934   520.8963  -0.007    0.995
jobs_unexp    541.3290   441.5177   1.226    0.251


Residual standard error: 0.9126 on 9 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared:  0.58,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.1133 
F-statistic: 1.243 on 10 and 9 DF,  p-value: 0.377 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.004169 -0.003381
capital -0.003381  0.832812

Correlation matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans    1.00000 -0.05738
capital -0.05738  1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 57 
Log Likelihood: 275.278 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9674 0.9674 0.923 0.9074 0.9074 0.896 0.896 0.8655 0.8655 0.8108 0.7486 0.7486 0.7332 0.7041 0.7041 0.1598
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.044536   0.146397   0.304  0.76293   
capital.l1     0.016840   0.081876   0.206  0.83835   
loans.l2      -0.097600   0.140015  -0.697  0.49079   
capital.l2     0.245502   0.079555   3.086  0.00417 **
loans.l3       0.141965   0.135800   1.045  0.30367   
capital.l3     0.022272   0.074512   0.299  0.76695   
loans.l4       0.224373   0.142943   1.570  0.12633   
capital.l4     0.153883   0.072900   2.111  0.04269 * 
loans.l5      -0.112902   0.147907  -0.763  0.45086   
capital.l5     0.227450   0.079582   2.858  0.00744 **
loans.l6      -0.037950   0.139385  -0.272  0.78717   
capital.l6    -0.007851   0.079780  -0.098  0.92222   
loans.l7       0.185886   0.124287   1.496  0.14455   
capital.l7     0.121575   0.083478   1.456  0.15503   
loans.l8      -0.029254   0.122898  -0.238  0.81337   
capital.l8     0.007423   0.082471   0.090  0.92884   
const         -0.021165   0.012875  -1.644  0.10999   
ten_two        0.012186   0.005061   2.408  0.02197 * 
ten_two_unexp -0.025514   0.017010  -1.500  0.14343   
ten           -0.198112   0.087334  -2.268  0.03019 * 
ten_unexp      0.253700   0.092724   2.736  0.01006 * 
cpi            1.697068   1.010171   1.680  0.10270   
cpi_unexp     -0.996537   0.885380  -1.126  0.26873   
jobs          -2.608630   1.145921  -2.276  0.02965 * 
jobs_unexp     5.422658   2.315311   2.342  0.02556 * 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.02183 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.6952, Adjusted R-squared: 0.4666 
F-statistic: 3.041 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.001819 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.119427   0.279155   0.428   0.6717  
capital.l1     0.097389   0.156124   0.624   0.5372  
loans.l2      -0.274825   0.266987  -1.029   0.3110  
capital.l2     0.145396   0.151698   0.958   0.3450  
loans.l3       0.119244   0.258949   0.460   0.6483  
capital.l3     0.041221   0.142083   0.290   0.7736  
loans.l4      -0.020141   0.272570  -0.074   0.9416  
capital.l4     0.128220   0.139008   0.922   0.3632  
loans.l5      -0.314940   0.282034  -1.117   0.2725  
capital.l5    -0.152972   0.151750  -1.008   0.3210  
loans.l6       0.324218   0.265785   1.220   0.2314  
capital.l6    -0.242220   0.152128  -1.592   0.1212  
loans.l7       0.054933   0.236995   0.232   0.8182  
capital.l7     0.177995   0.159180   1.118   0.2718  
loans.l8      -0.028097   0.234346  -0.120   0.9053  
capital.l8     0.392850   0.157258   2.498   0.0178 *
const         -0.005624   0.024550  -0.229   0.8203  
ten_two        0.002984   0.009650   0.309   0.7591  
ten_two_unexp -0.053316   0.032436  -1.644   0.1100  
ten           -0.196859   0.166533  -1.182   0.2459  
ten_unexp      0.089756   0.176809   0.508   0.6152  
cpi           -2.725050   1.926236  -1.415   0.1668  
cpi_unexp      3.030200   1.688278   1.795   0.0821 .
jobs           5.531404   2.185089   2.531   0.0165 *
jobs_unexp    -8.809056   4.414930  -1.995   0.0546 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04162 on 32 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.5481, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2092 
F-statistic: 1.617 on 24 and 32 DF,  p-value: 0.1013 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans  capital
loans   0.0004765 0.000362
capital 0.0003620 0.001733

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.3984
capital 0.3984  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 64 
Log Likelihood: 138.867 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.149 0.149
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       0.09595    0.21053   0.456    0.650
capital.l1    -0.19101    0.18157  -1.052    0.298
const         -0.06643    0.04192  -1.585    0.119
ten_two        0.02028    0.01773   1.144    0.258
ten_two_unexp  0.10871    0.06607   1.645    0.106
ten            0.09031    0.30461   0.296    0.768
ten_unexp     -0.10457    0.33113  -0.316    0.753
cpi            5.69584    4.05211   1.406    0.166
cpi_unexp     -3.58745    3.58707  -1.000    0.322
jobs           1.83287    4.29945   0.426    0.672
jobs_unexp    -9.84461    8.73825  -1.127    0.265


Residual standard error: 0.1047 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1764, Adjusted R-squared: 0.02097 
F-statistic: 1.135 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.3549 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.22244    0.23282   0.955   0.3437  
capital.l1     -0.21138    0.20079  -1.053   0.2972  
const          -0.06462    0.04636  -1.394   0.1691  
ten_two         0.03134    0.01961   1.598   0.1160  
ten_two_unexp   0.02374    0.07307   0.325   0.7466  
ten             0.64652    0.33686   1.919   0.0603 .
ten_unexp      -0.40664    0.36618  -1.110   0.2718  
cpi             2.54346    4.48106   0.568   0.5727  
cpi_unexp      -2.05449    3.96680  -0.518   0.6067  
jobs            8.92941    4.75459   1.878   0.0659 .
jobs_unexp    -19.05585    9.66328  -1.972   0.0538 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1157 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2112, Adjusted R-squared: 0.06243 
F-statistic: 1.419 on 10 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.1975 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.010954 0.009031
capital 0.009031 0.013396

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.7455
capital 0.7455  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 62 
Log Likelihood: 4.28 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.6599 0.6599 0.6278 0.6278 0.6058 0.6058
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1       0.336972   0.130133   2.589  0.01276 * 
capital.l1     0.001066   0.004436   0.240  0.81106   
loans.l2       0.065608   0.131861   0.498  0.62112   
capital.l2    -0.008413   0.004607  -1.826  0.07415 . 
loans.l3       0.022733   0.125397   0.181  0.85692   
capital.l3     0.013219   0.004594   2.877  0.00601 **
const          0.045090   0.020214   2.231  0.03052 * 
ten_two       -0.018474   0.008322  -2.220  0.03128 * 
ten_two_unexp -0.005908   0.031199  -0.189  0.85061   
ten            0.114935   0.142670   0.806  0.42453   
ten_unexp     -0.137862   0.154458  -0.893  0.37664   
cpi            1.062442   1.849390   0.574  0.56838   
cpi_unexp     -0.171946   1.661533  -0.103  0.91802   
jobs          -4.100027   2.053269  -1.997  0.05165 . 
jobs_unexp     6.013664   4.061030   1.481  0.14533   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04722 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.4281, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2578 
F-statistic: 2.513 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.009284 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
loans.l1       -5.0237     4.2064  -1.194    0.238
capital.l1     -0.1325     0.1434  -0.924    0.360
loans.l2        0.7660     4.2623   0.180    0.858
capital.l2     -0.1346     0.1489  -0.904    0.371
loans.l3       -4.9483     4.0534  -1.221    0.228
capital.l3     -0.1065     0.1485  -0.717    0.477
const           0.7972     0.6534   1.220    0.229
ten_two        -0.1929     0.2690  -0.717    0.477
ten_two_unexp   0.8925     1.0085   0.885    0.381
ten            -2.2388     4.6117  -0.485    0.630
ten_unexp       0.9576     4.9927   0.192    0.849
cpi           -31.7148    59.7797  -0.531    0.598
cpi_unexp      30.9516    53.7074   0.576    0.567
jobs            4.2047    66.3699   0.063    0.950
jobs_unexp     13.1175   131.2688   0.100    0.921


Residual standard error: 1.526 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.1168, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1463 
F-statistic: 0.4441 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.9504 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   0.0022301 0.0004952
capital 0.0004952 2.3301090

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.00687
capital 0.00687 1.00000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 33 
Log Likelihood: 158.682 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
1.232 1.148 1.094 1.094  1.04  1.04 1.031 1.031 1.007 1.007     1     1 0.9709 0.9232 0.9232 0.9047 0.9047 0.7203 0.7203 0.3676
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1        0.85638    0.40398   2.120   0.1014  
capital.l1     -0.06736    0.07850  -0.858   0.4392  
loans.l2       -0.09316    0.34243  -0.272   0.7990  
capital.l2     -0.05169    0.11033  -0.468   0.6638  
loans.l3       -0.42616    0.33345  -1.278   0.2704  
capital.l3      0.20857    0.14150   1.474   0.2145  
loans.l4        0.30771    0.34210   0.899   0.4193  
capital.l4     -0.03270    0.12598  -0.260   0.8080  
loans.l5        0.10414    0.18656   0.558   0.6065  
capital.l5     -0.09154    0.11436  -0.800   0.4683  
loans.l6        1.19208    0.50153   2.377   0.0762 .
capital.l6      0.07267    0.09982   0.728   0.5069  
loans.l7       -0.02527    0.19879  -0.127   0.9050  
capital.l7      0.15704    0.12136   1.294   0.2653  
loans.l8        0.19379    0.17256   1.123   0.3243  
capital.l8     -0.06155    0.08866  -0.694   0.5257  
loans.l9        0.14849    0.19346   0.768   0.4856  
capital.l9      0.22368    0.16636   1.345   0.2500  
loans.l10       0.45114    0.22877   1.972   0.1199  
capital.l10    -0.30269    0.16444  -1.841   0.1395  
const          -0.34687    0.26999  -1.285   0.2682  
ten_two        -0.05159    0.03534  -1.460   0.2182  
ten_two_unexp   0.61629    0.27181   2.267   0.0860 .
ten             0.15744    0.34732   0.453   0.6738  
ten_unexp      -1.28600    0.64916  -1.981   0.1187  
cpi            -5.58628    8.87938  -0.629   0.5634  
cpi_unexp       6.17710    4.95160   1.247   0.2803  
jobs           75.28707   36.15230   2.082   0.1057  
jobs_unexp    -37.51392   23.95551  -1.566   0.1924  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04932 on 4 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.909,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.2721 
F-statistic: 1.427 on 28 and 4 DF,  p-value: 0.4019 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + loans.l8 + capital.l8 + loans.l9 + capital.l9 + loans.l10 + capital.l10 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1         0.41992    1.25641   0.334   0.7550  
capital.l1      -0.42354    0.24413  -1.735   0.1578  
loans.l2        -1.23564    1.06499  -1.160   0.3105  
capital.l2      -0.48105    0.34315  -1.402   0.2336  
loans.l3         0.80368    1.03705   0.775   0.4816  
capital.l3       0.01074    0.44007   0.024   0.9817  
loans.l4        -1.69734    1.06396  -1.595   0.1859  
capital.l4      -0.11819    0.39180  -0.302   0.7779  
loans.l5        -0.42894    0.58020  -0.739   0.5008  
capital.l5       0.43604    0.35567   1.226   0.2875  
loans.l6        -3.28811    1.55980  -2.108   0.1027  
capital.l6      -0.56471    0.31044  -1.819   0.1430  
loans.l7         0.21919    0.61825   0.355   0.7408  
capital.l7       0.33253    0.37743   0.881   0.4281  
loans.l8         0.32799    0.53667   0.611   0.5741  
capital.l8       0.26490    0.27574   0.961   0.3911  
loans.l9        -0.60159    0.60167  -1.000   0.3740  
capital.l9       0.49904    0.51739   0.965   0.3894  
loans.l10       -1.57138    0.71149  -2.209   0.0918 .
capital.l10      0.48985    0.51142   0.958   0.3924  
const            1.63989    0.83969   1.953   0.1225  
ten_two         -0.20106    0.10992  -1.829   0.1414  
ten_two_unexp    0.49348    0.84536   0.584   0.5907  
ten             -1.72730    1.08018  -1.599   0.1850  
ten_unexp        1.34307    2.01892   0.665   0.5423  
cpi             18.83738   27.61542   0.682   0.5326  
cpi_unexp      -10.34382   15.39977  -0.672   0.5386  
jobs          -246.79731  112.43585  -2.195   0.0932 .
jobs_unexp     113.32565   74.50309   1.521   0.2029  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1534 on 4 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8562, Adjusted R-squared: -0.1505 
F-statistic: 0.8505 on 28 and 4 DF,  p-value: 0.6572 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans    0.002432 -0.006456
capital -0.006456  0.023523

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans    1.0000 -0.8535
capital -0.8535  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 58 
Log Likelihood: 121.006 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9032 0.9023 0.9023 0.8844 0.8844 0.867 0.867 0.8544 0.8544 0.7821 0.7821 0.7759 0.4115 0.2697
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.31263    0.25458   1.228  0.22763    
capital.l1     -0.66509    0.41646  -1.597  0.11925    
loans.l2        0.81289    0.26918   3.020  0.00470 ** 
capital.l2     -1.37850    0.40333  -3.418  0.00162 ** 
loans.l3        0.67613    0.19524   3.463  0.00143 ** 
capital.l3     -0.71872    0.31101  -2.311  0.02685 *  
loans.l4        0.90100    0.19927   4.522 6.74e-05 ***
capital.l4     -0.98171    0.31430  -3.123  0.00358 ** 
loans.l5        0.24114    0.20915   1.153  0.25673    
capital.l5     -0.28792    0.32146  -0.896  0.37655    
loans.l6        0.33419    0.22341   1.496  0.14364    
capital.l6     -0.36284    0.33542  -1.082  0.28677    
loans.l7       -2.42592    0.22417 -10.822 1.03e-12 ***
capital.l7      4.01958    0.34348  11.702 1.19e-13 ***
const           0.11534    0.07367   1.566  0.12644    
ten_two         0.04016    0.03322   1.209  0.23477    
ten_two_unexp  -0.10027    0.11274  -0.889  0.37985    
ten            -0.23298    0.52939  -0.440  0.66258    
ten_unexp       0.13527    0.52244   0.259  0.79721    
cpi           -11.61927    8.33004  -1.395  0.17185    
cpi_unexp       6.19097    7.59864   0.815  0.42073    
jobs          -26.43551    7.58249  -3.486  0.00134 ** 
jobs_unexp     26.53146   17.27445   1.536  0.13356    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1443 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8839, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8109 
F-statistic: 12.11 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 1.421e-10 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + loans.l5 + capital.l5 + loans.l6 + capital.l6 + loans.l7 + capital.l7 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1        0.19540    0.18762   1.041 0.304803    
capital.l1     -0.40119    0.30692  -1.307 0.199693    
loans.l2        0.46224    0.19839   2.330 0.025697 *  
capital.l2     -0.73821    0.29725  -2.483 0.017948 *  
loans.l3        0.33833    0.14389   2.351 0.024462 *  
capital.l3     -0.35681    0.22921  -1.557 0.128541    
loans.l4        0.73092    0.14686   4.977 1.72e-05 ***
capital.l4     -0.86113    0.23164  -3.718 0.000701 ***
loans.l5        0.04289    0.15414   0.278 0.782476    
capital.l5     -0.05276    0.23691  -0.223 0.825060    
loans.l6        0.21671    0.16465   1.316 0.196658    
capital.l6     -0.24901    0.24720  -1.007 0.320689    
loans.l7       -1.54666    0.16521  -9.362 4.62e-11 ***
capital.l7      2.56956    0.25314  10.151 5.72e-12 ***
const           0.01077    0.05429   0.198 0.843880    
ten_two         0.04706    0.02448   1.922 0.062745 .  
ten_two_unexp  -0.04025    0.08308  -0.484 0.631067    
ten             0.02468    0.39015   0.063 0.949916    
ten_unexp      -0.16386    0.38503  -0.426 0.673031    
cpi            -2.01183    6.13912  -0.328 0.745086    
cpi_unexp      -0.10052    5.60009  -0.018 0.985781    
jobs          -13.74643    5.58819  -2.460 0.018980 *  
jobs_unexp     11.38337   12.73101   0.894 0.377352    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.1064 on 35 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.8521, Adjusted R-squared: 0.7591 
F-statistic: 9.164 on 22 and 35 DF,  p-value: 7.015e-09 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
           loans  capital
loans   0.020826 0.009512
capital 0.009512 0.011312

Correlation matrix of residuals:
         loans capital
loans   1.0000  0.6198
capital 0.6198  1.0000

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 62 
Log Likelihood: 247.735 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.7887 0.7326 0.7326 0.4883 0.4089 0.2021
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
loans.l1      -0.165766   0.150582  -1.101  0.27658   
capital.l1    -0.042651   0.172724  -0.247  0.80604   
loans.l2       0.402464   0.139057   2.894  0.00575 **
capital.l2    -0.316957   0.168971  -1.876  0.06690 . 
loans.l3       0.334795   0.161082   2.078  0.04316 * 
capital.l3    -0.209108   0.191440  -1.092  0.28027   
const         -0.003261   0.017280  -0.189  0.85111   
ten_two        0.003684   0.007244   0.509  0.61348   
ten_two_unexp  0.005301   0.028332   0.187  0.85240   
ten           -0.030159   0.131260  -0.230  0.81927   
ten_unexp      0.023057   0.147569   0.156  0.87651   
cpi           -0.357494   1.806398  -0.198  0.84397   
cpi_unexp      1.658552   1.574754   1.053  0.29763   
jobs           1.969783   1.804394   1.092  0.28055   
jobs_unexp     0.488951   4.269245   0.115  0.90931   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.04183 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.347,  Adjusted R-squared: 0.1525 
F-statistic: 1.784 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.07011 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.117290   0.122499   0.957   0.3432  
capital.l1    -0.036038   0.140512  -0.256   0.7987  
loans.l2       0.202624   0.113124   1.791   0.0797 .
capital.l2     0.205467   0.137459   1.495   0.1417  
loans.l3      -0.199405   0.131041  -1.522   0.1348  
capital.l3     0.073514   0.155738   0.472   0.6391  
const          0.009361   0.014057   0.666   0.5087  
ten_two        0.004898   0.005893   0.831   0.4101  
ten_two_unexp -0.018823   0.023049  -0.817   0.4182  
ten           -0.175948   0.106781  -1.648   0.1061  
ten_unexp      0.217376   0.120048   1.811   0.0766 .
cpi           -2.429025   1.469515  -1.653   0.1050  
cpi_unexp      2.095565   1.281071   1.636   0.1086  
jobs           1.084938   1.467885   0.739   0.4635  
jobs_unexp    -2.053499   3.473055  -0.591   0.5572  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03403 on 47 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2384, Adjusted R-squared: 0.01156 
F-statistic: 1.051 on 14 and 47 DF,  p-value: 0.4235 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   1.749e-03 8.352e-05
capital 8.352e-05 1.158e-03

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.05869
capital 0.05869 1.00000
Warning in cor(resids): the standard deviation is zero
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
[1] "error"
Warning in xy.coords(x, y, xlabel, ylabel, log): NAs introduced by coercion
Warning in min(x): no non-missing arguments to min; returning Inf
Warning in max(x): no non-missing arguments to max; returning -Inf
[1] "error"

VAR Estimation Results:
========================= 
Endogenous variables: loans, capital 
Deterministic variables: const 
Sample size: 61 
Log Likelihood: 338.544 
Roots of the characteristic polynomial:
0.9326 0.8855 0.8855 0.8027 0.7184 0.7184 0.6543 0.6543
Call:
VAR(y = tmp_endo, p = tmp_var_sel$selection[1], exogen = tmp_exog)


Estimation results for equation loans: 
====================================== 
loans = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
loans.l1       0.075167   0.143263   0.525   0.6024  
capital.l1     0.691990   0.344062   2.011   0.0505 .
loans.l2       0.365831   0.153284   2.387   0.0214 *
capital.l2    -0.016766   0.338563  -0.050   0.9607  
loans.l3      -0.183320   0.160489  -1.142   0.2595  
capital.l3     0.323452   0.299515   1.080   0.2861  
loans.l4      -0.047802   0.157898  -0.303   0.7635  
capital.l4     0.669143   0.334733   1.999   0.0518 .
const         -0.033142   0.024531  -1.351   0.1836  
ten_two        0.013549   0.007862   1.723   0.0919 .
ten_two_unexp -0.019468   0.023860  -0.816   0.4189  
ten            0.167458   0.097797   1.712   0.0939 .
ten_unexp     -0.156618   0.107554  -1.456   0.1524  
cpi           -1.252824   1.345031  -0.931   0.3567  
cpi_unexp      0.634329   1.239342   0.512   0.6113  
jobs           1.750337   1.537596   1.138   0.2611  
jobs_unexp    -0.829458   3.322322  -0.250   0.8040  
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.03223 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.3923, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1713 
F-statistic: 1.775 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 0.06712 


Estimation results for equation capital: 
======================================== 
capital = loans.l1 + capital.l1 + loans.l2 + capital.l2 + loans.l3 + capital.l3 + loans.l4 + capital.l4 + const + ten_two + ten_two_unexp + ten + ten_unexp + cpi + cpi_unexp + jobs + jobs_unexp 

               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
loans.l1       0.061622   0.043662   1.411 0.165170    
capital.l1     0.040757   0.104858   0.389 0.699380    
loans.l2       0.070212   0.046716   1.503 0.139992    
capital.l2    -0.200335   0.103182  -1.942 0.058611 .  
loans.l3      -0.024039   0.048911  -0.491 0.625523    
capital.l3    -0.143439   0.091282  -1.571 0.123256    
loans.l4       0.166495   0.048122   3.460 0.001213 ** 
capital.l4     0.381759   0.102015   3.742 0.000525 ***
const          0.009853   0.007476   1.318 0.194339    
ten_two       -0.003081   0.002396  -1.286 0.205207    
ten_two_unexp -0.005305   0.007272  -0.730 0.469520    
ten            0.048256   0.029805   1.619 0.112586    
ten_unexp     -0.041901   0.032779  -1.278 0.207846    
cpi            0.685384   0.409919   1.672 0.101622    
cpi_unexp     -0.496526   0.377708  -1.315 0.195464    
jobs           0.312913   0.468606   0.668 0.507779    
jobs_unexp    -1.650550   1.012528  -1.630 0.110214    
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1


Residual standard error: 0.009822 on 44 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.7213, Adjusted R-squared:  0.62 
F-statistic: 7.118 on 16 and 44 DF,  p-value: 1.111e-07 



Covariance matrix of residuals:
            loans   capital
loans   1.039e-03 2.504e-05
capital 2.504e-05 9.648e-05

Correlation matrix of residuals:
          loans capital
loans   1.00000 0.07909
capital 0.07909 1.00000
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